Tag: Luca Cumani

November Handicap Preview

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The flat turf season finally comes to a close on Saturday with the November Handicap at Doncaster.

My record in this race was not great up until last year when William Haggas won it with Conduct (8-1). I wonder what ever happened to that horse? Saturday’s race looks the usual minefield of criss-crossing form lines with the possible exception of Luca Cumani’s Mount Logan.

I remember tipping this one last year in a two-year-old maiden and thinking that he looked like a stayer in the making. I was surprised when Cumani ran him in a Group 3 as a two-year-old but it did show that he must have thought something of him. He has been steady rather than spectacular this season, winning a couple of decent handicaps. He saved his best for his most recent outing when winning here in September. The handicapper has put him up 7lbs but he has the in-form Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and has avoided being drawn in the car park.

This race can be a real slog if conditions get really testing. The forecast is not that great for Thursday and Friday so we could see soft ground at the weekend. That would count against Peter Chapple-Hyam’s 40-1 Newmarket winner Farquhar who seems better on faster ground.

One piece of form that grabs my attention here is the victory of Latenightrequest at Haydock in September. Because Richard Fahey’s horse has gone on to win again here since, he faces a very stiff task at the weights with those that he beat at Haydock.

Alan Swinbank’s Dark Ruler is 15lbs better off for two lengths while runner-up Headline News and fourth-placed Kings Bayonet enjoy a similar weight pull. Headline News has since won at Newmarket while Dark Ruler won at Pontefract despite getting into traffic problems. The latter also has the advantage of having won on both of his previous visits here. If you fancy Dark Ruler it is impossible not to fancy Headline News too as he is 12lbs better off for a short-head.

Old Town Boy looked all out to win a competitive event at York last time and may be anchored by his 6lbs penalty. Rhombus was favourite for this a year ago and disappointed and never looked likely to stay the Cesarewitch distance. Communicator is having his third crack at this prize having finished runner-up in 2012 and fifth last year. He will probably run well again but is drawn 22.

Mount Logan @10-1 William Hill

Dark Ruler @22-1 Betfair

Headline News @16-1 Totesport

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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The Cesarewitch day card at Newmarket looks like being a thorough test of stamina for punters as well as the horses! As well as the 32-runner marathon, the seven-race card also features a 24-runner mile and a half handicap.

We have previewed the Cesarewitch separately and are hoping for a run for our money from Suegioo and Rhombus. The preceding race is just as taxing to work out with all sorts of interwoven form lines. I am hoping that I have unearthed a well weighted horse in Andrew Balding’s Nabatean.

The son of Rock Of Gibraltar was having only his fourth start when staying on into fourth behind Battersea at Ascot in July. He had previously got off the mark in a Lingfield maiden and was given a lot to do by David Probert, moving up from last place approaching the home turn. He has a lengthy absence to overcome but is 16lbs better off with the winner for four and a half lengths. That ought to give him a decent chance and Hayley Turner has landed the ride with just 8st 1lb to carry.

I have plenty of respect for Luca Cumani’s Connecticut who looked set to complete a four-timer at York before finding the mile and three-quarters just beyond him. He is well worth an each-way bet in a wide open contest.

The same colours are carried by stable mate Bartholomew Fair on the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at 2.05. He beat an ordinary field at Yarmouth easily last time but I think this race could produce a shock with both Future Empire and Order Of St George looking suspect. Future Empire was just beaten at Sandown in the Solario Stakes but a good sized horse blanket would have covered the first four home.

Order Of St George looks a very edgy type, although he did win his maiden by a street. I think Hail Clodius could also be under-rated. He thrashed Fieldsman here last time out and that horse has won twice since.

Each-way betting could also be the order of the day in the Listed race at 2.40 with nineteen fillies and mares going to post. I am reluctant to pass over Blue Waltz after she bolted up at Doncaster last time but she still has to improve to win this and better value may be found with This Is The Day. She won only a modest Brighton handicap before defying a big hike in the weights at Haydock and she could surprise a few here. Albasharah is probably the form horse if she repeats her excellent run at Yarmouth when second to Hadaatha. The winner was only beaten half a length in a Group 1 at Longchamp last weekend.

Bartholomew Fair 2.05 (e/w) @9-1 Bet365

Hail Clodius (e/w) 2.05 @20-1 Paddy Power non-runner

Albasharah 2.40 @11-2 William Hill

This Is The Day (e/w) 2.40 @18-1 Bet Victor

Connecticut (e/w) 3.10  @10-1 Skybet

Nabatean (e/w) 3.10 @12-1 Paddy Power

Suegioo (e/w) 3.50 @18-1 Paddy Power

Rhombus (e/w) 3.50 @25-1 Coral

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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After a hectic weekend of top quality racing we are back to the bread and butter at Nottingham on Wednesday. As good as it was to see Treve go into the history books with her back-to-back Arc success, I have to say that I was less than impressed with the Japanese riders. You would have thought that they would know how to ride the race after many years of trying but they gave their mounts no chance by holding them up way out the back.

The more humble offerings at Nottingham get under way at 2.20 with a maiden race which should go the way of Luca Cumani and Andrea Atzeni. Spiriting ran a good race on his second start when second at Yarmouth behind Bartel. Firmament finished a fair way back in fourth that day and ran a good race on Monday to finish second to the useful Master Apprentice. A repeat of that form would make Spiriting very hard to beat here.

The second race is a very competitive nursery but there is no stopping David O’Meara at the moment. His Group 1 win in the Prix de L’Abbaye on Sunday with Move In Time was the icing on the cake for a memorable season. He runs Snow Cloud who showed enormous improvement after a lengthy absence to beat Compton River at Redcar. The jockey never had to resort to the whip that day so there should be plenty more to come. The main danger could be the top weight Ivors Rebel who has been keeping much better company.

The best bet on the card could be the progressive Black Granite in the nine furlong nursery at 4.25. Jeremy Noseda’s gelding looked very moderate earlier in the season but the application of a visor has transformed him. A game victory at Salisbury was followed by an emphatic success at Newmarket. Normally I would hesitate at a 9lbs rise in the weights but there aren’t that many two-year-olds that stay beyond a mile and he is certainly one of them.

The final three races look virtually impossible but I am going to have a small interest in Golden Spear in the 4.25. He is yet to race beyond a mile but his last couple of runs suggest that he is crying out for it. The danger is probably Tercel who is on a very fair mark for Sir Michael Stoute and looked set to win at Newbury last time. He didn’t look the easiest of rides that day and Ryan Moore will probably be looking to deliver him with a late rattle.

Spiriting 2.20 @Bet365

Snow Cloud 2.50 @5-1 Bet365

Black Granite 4.25 @11-4 Bet365

Golden Spear 5.25 @11-1 Coral

Epsom Tuesday Preview

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The victory of Muhaarar in the Gimcrack Stakes on Saturday gave us a profit on all four days of the York Ebor meeting. We finished the week over 30 points in profit after Dutch Connection (16-1), Tapestry (12-1), Sole Power (7-2) and Pale Mimosa (7-2).

The racing is not up to the same quality this week but there are a couple of interesting handicaps at Epsom on Tuesday that may be worth a flutter.

The old expression about following over cliffs springs to mind looking at the form for Mission Approved. His last six races have yielded three seconds and three thirds and he is likely to be a popular choice yet again in the six-furlong John Akehurst Handicap.

Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, the gelding is now with Luca Cumani and almost popped up at 20-1 at Goodwood last time out. He certainly did not appear to shirk the issue when battling to the line and was unlucky to be beaten a short-head by Barnet Fair. The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for that run which must be frustrating for connections.

Huntsmans Close was not far behind him while Duke Cosimo won a very competitive race at Ripon last time. Both should go well along with track specialist Swiss Cross but I’ll keep faith with the luckless Mission Approved.

In the closing race I’m going to go with Roger Charlton’s Marzante. The grey ran a cracking race when narrowly beaten by Cherry Princess on his first outing for three years. He set a modest pace and looked like being swallowed up early in the straight but kept finding extra all the way to the line. Cherry Princess arrived fast and late and Marzante looked unlucky not to hold on.

The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for his troubles but he should run well for George Baker who has impressed me this season. Cherry Princess re-opposes and Gabrial The Thug should also pose a threat. Perhaps the biggest threat is the so-called “Bounce factor”. Many believe that horses running well after a lengthy layoff could suffer a bounce effect next time and run poorly. Marzante would be a prime candidate but, not knowing the reasons for his lengthy absence, I am prepared to take a chance.

It is difficult to get very excited about the rest of the card but hopefully the racing will pick up during the week.

Mission Approved 3.25 @4-1 Betfair

Marzante 5.05 @9-2 BetVictor

York Saturday Preview

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Sole Power and Pale Mimosa (both tipped here at 7-2) put Betcirca followers nearly 30 points up on the week. The York Ebor meeting comes to a close on Saturday with some very competitive racing with the feature race due off at 3.50.

The gamble of the race is Pallasator for Sir Mark Prescott. The five-year-old has now been bought by Qatar Racing and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him contesting some big Cup races next season. Apart from having missed any value in his price, I am put off by his draw in stall 22. It shouldn’t be too much of an issue over a mile and three-quarters but I’m sure connections would have been happier if he had been in a low to middle stall.

One that fits the bill is Marco Botti’s De Rigueur in stall 6. He has beaten Pallasator before at Haydock and should finish close to the favourite on that evidence. He is three times the price and has to be the each-way selection.

The day’s racing gets off to a subdued start with seven runners lining up for the Strensall Stakes. Having tipped Farraaj in the John Smith’s Cup and collected three times previously on Graphic, something has to give. The drop back to a mile may count against Farraaj but he is a free-running sort and I just give him the verdict.

The Melrose Handicap is every bit as competitive as the Ebor with a whole host of improving three-year-olds. Connecticut’s form has been boosted time and again and he looks the sort who will find more when necessary. With Cumani’s team in such fine form he is hard to oppose but I am going to have a saver on Captain Morley who should appreciate this trip.

He was desperately unlucky at the Chester May meeting when flying through into second and made amends on his next visit. He was then a fair third at Royal Ascot behind Elite Army, staying on up the straight. He could give Jamie Spencer the winner that he has been waiting for this week.

Baitha Alga has also been a good friend to this column with three victories on the trot. He has not been out since Royal Ascot and that may leave him vulnerable in the closing stages. He also has to shoulder a 3lbs penalty and I think Muhaarar may run him close. He didn’t settle over seven furlongs at Ascot and was previously third to the classy Ivawood. He was inches behind Jungle Cat but that one ran disappointingly at Goodwood.

Ajman Bridge ran a cracker at Goodwood when just failing to catch Sennockian Star. He has another tough task in the 5.00 but deserves to win a decent prize.

Farraaj 2.05 York @7-4 Totesport, Stan James

Connecticut 2.40 York @6-1 Bet365

Captain Morley 2.40 York @10-1 (each-way) BetVictor

Baitha Alga 3.15 York @14-5 BetBright

Muhaarar 3.15 York @8-1 BetVictor

De Rigueur 3.50 York @14-1 (each-way) BetVictor

Ajman Bridge 5.00 York @5-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Sandown Thursday Preview

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The pick of the action in the UK on Thursday comes from Sandown’s evening fixture with a six race card starting at 5.40.

The most interesting event on the card is the handicap for three-year-olds at 7.25 over ten furlongs. Several of these have plenty of room for improvement with three of them having won last time out. John Gosden’s Prince Of Stars has been notable by his absence since winning at Chester back in May and has been well supported in the early skirmishes for his handicap debut.

He didn’t beat much at Chester and the Wood Ditton form has taken a few knocks so he is passed over at odds of around 5-2. Mythical Madness won a poor race last time and Hoop Of Colour overcame trouble in running to win a five-runner race at Pontefract. He is up a few pounds but the form of Lady Cecil’s stable does not inspire confidence.

Luca Cumani’s Comedy King is probably better than he showed last time out while Hedge End is incredibly consistent but has not won since December. She finished well at Goodwood last week behind Magique and runs off the same mark here. She seems to try her heart out and is the each-way selection in a tricky contest.

Roger Charlton’s Tides Reach is a bit of a puzzler in the closing handicap. She has always looked more of a soft ground filly but won by eight lengths at Windsor on good to firm last time out. I think she was flattered by the runner-up having been virtually eased to a walk by Richard Hughes at the line and she is worth opposing.

I have been impressed by the way in which Silvestre De Sousa has kept his head down after the poor treatment he received from Godolphin. He teams up with Unison who has run a couple of solid races and should go close here. He is closely weighted with Sweet Martoni but can just sneak it.

Over at Brighton, I think Lear’s Rock can improve on his debut fourth at Sandown and may be good enough to beat Hawkmeister. Richard Hannon’s runner is fitted with the blinkers here after a disappointing run at Lingfield last time out. Azmaam’s run at Sandown last time is best forgotten after a tardy start and he showed enough on his debut to win Haydock’s 2.40 race.

Lear’s Rock 3.20 Brighton

Azmaam 2.40 Haydock

Hedge End (each-way) 7.25 Sandown at 7-1 BetVictor

Unison 8.25 Sandown at 5-1 Paddy Power