Tag: horse racing odds

Super Saturday Marks Culmination Of Melbourne Autumn

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There are bigger race days on the Aussie calendar but when it comes to sharing the spotlight across more than one venue, Saturday’s double-bill of the Australian Cup/Newmarket Handicap and the Coolmore Classic is hard to top. Firstly, a quick word about last Saturday’s Australian Guineas meeting at Flemington. The Victoria Racing Club are always reluctant to admit to the presence of track bias, it was quickly apparent that the place to be was hard up against the running rail. For races down the Straight Six, the best going has also trended from the centre of the track to the inside. We encourage punters to watch the first two or three races carefully for any indication of bias before dipping into their bankroll. Likewise in Sydney, where the Rosehill track is unlikely to improve much beyond a heavy (8) for Saturday’s card.

Williams Camp Carry Hot Hand

For the first century that it was run, the Australian Cup was a longer race than the Melbourne Cup. But since WWII, the distance has been gradually shaved back – from 2.25 miles (3637m) to 1.75 miles and finally today’s 2000m since 1973. It has also shifted back and forth from handicap to weight-for-age conditions, with the latter in place since 1987. This year’s G1 $1.5 million TAB Australian Cup is quality top to bottom, with Humidor holding narrow favouritism with Luxbet ($4.80) ahead of 2016 Caulfield Cup winner Jameka ($5.00) in the 12-horse field. There are at least six legitimate winning hopes but we’ve settled on the runner that has the biggest upside to improve. Team Williams’ 7yo entire #3 The United States ($7.50 with William Hill) is a bulletproof weight-for-age performer. He was third first-up in the Peter Young Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield two weeks ago and has finished in the first two in his four runs second-up.

Sprint Title Up for Grabs

Since 1874, Australasia’s greatest sprinters have raced over the six furlongs (or 1200m) at Flemington to decide the nation’s unofficial sprint champion. The list of victors covers the history of the sport – from Wakeful (1901), Ajax (1938) and Bernborough (1946) to Schillaci (1992), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007), Scenic Blast (2009), Black Caviar (2011) and Lankan Rupee (2014). Only 13 of the 24 starting slots have been filled, but that hasn’t made it any easier for punters with Spieth ($3.90 on bet365) heading a wide-open market. We suspect that the inside will be the place to be, making it tough for #1 Terravista and #9 Star Turn. It’s tough to split the favourite and Sheidel so take the price ($8.50 with Ladbrokes) on the latter. She’s ridiculously consistent (27:15-5-1) and did it pretty easily in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield on February 25). #5 Voodoo Lad and #8 Tivaci (both $26 with Luxbet) are blowout chances.

Huge Field Chase Coolmore Crown

The fillies and mares take centre stage at Rosehill Gardens for this relative newcomer to the Australian racing calendar. First run in 1973 as the TAD Kennedy Stakes, this $600,000 race over 1500m has been under the Coolmore banner for more than two decades. The set weights’ conditions make it a popular race with owners and trainers and a massive field of 19 have accepted this year. And just to make it a little tougher, the track is likely to be in the heavy range while favourite #14 Omei Sword ($3.90 with Unibet) drew the outside gate! Only two of the past 13 winners have started as favourite. Through a fairly brutal process of elimination, we’ve settled on the proven wet/black type form of Kiwi raider La Bella Diosa ($10 with Sportsbet). She’s won five of seven career starts and did it easy in the G2 Surround (1400m) at Randwick two weeks ago.

Pick Your Guineas As 3yos Feature In Sydney And Melbourne

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If ever a reminder was required that Australian racing comprises a group of state jurisdictions that display an almost complete unwillingness to work together, let us present the highlights of Saturday’s thoroughbred program. In Sydney, we have the G1 $1,000,000 Girvan Waugh Randwick Guineas for the 3yos over 16000m. In Melbourne, Flemington will host the G1 $750,000 Australian Guineas for the 3yos over 1600m. Yep, a pair of G1 miles for the 3yos on the same day! Mother Nature is having her say on this bizarre scheduling conflict with soaking rain threatening the Randwick card while Melbourne is experiencing a glorious streak of early autumn sunshine. If the wet weather continues, the Randwick program could easily be postponed as the track is already saturated.
Echo Effect to Make a Splash

Let’s start in Sydney for the first leg of the Sydney autumn three-year-old Triple Crown (along with the Rosehill Guineas at 2000m and ATC Australian Derby over 2400m). The race originated in 1925 and was run as the Canterbury Guineas over 1900m until 2005 when it was renamed the Randwick Guineas and shortened to 1600m. A field of 14 has accepted for this year’s renewal, although scratchings are almost certain. Despite the presence of a pair of very handy types – Man From Uncle and Comin’ Through, #4 Echo Effect looks a huge danger ($9.50 with bet365). Kristen Buchanan’s gelding is only proven wet tracker in the race (2:2-0-0) and was just nailed on the line in the G2 Hobartville (1400m) at Rosehill two weeks ago.

Kiwi Newcomer Could Pinch WFA Sprint

The first of the G1s at Randwick is the fifth of the day – the Canterbury BMW Stakes at weight for age over 1300m. First run in 1929, it’s now being held at a third different venue (Canterbury, Rosehill and now Randwick). Five of the eight runners are priced at $10 or better with Chautauqua a $2.70 favourite as he chases a sixth G1 win. The superstar grey is winless in his past four while 10 of his 12 wins have been on good going. Currently at $9 with William Hill, #7 Ugo Foscolo is the value runner. The 3yo gelding gets weight relief over the leading fancies as he aims to make it six wins from seven career starts. Now with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he trialled arrogantly at Warwick Farm on February 20.

Huge Field to Contest Flemington Feature

Rain won’t be an issue at Flemington on Saturday where the mercury will be in the mid-20s for the Australian Guineas meeting. A capacity field of 16 is virtually assured with James Cummings’ top rater Prized Icon accepting here in preference to a soggy Randwick. Hey Doc is the $4 favourite with Sportsbet thanks to his solid win in the G3 C.S. Hayes (1400m) here two weeks ago. Just five of the 19 acceptors are priced north of $20 so there’s value galore. An outside draw in such a big field is a big knock, while several runners have yet to be tested over a mile. The four runners that tick more boxes than most are 2016 VRC Derby winner #1 Prized Icon, 2016 Caulfield Guineas victor #2 Divine Prophet, #4 Hey Doc and our pick, #14 Harlow Gold. Fillies bat above their weight in this race, and the Lindsay Park runner rates well below an $18 chance.

Group 1 WFA Race A Fitting Tribute For The King

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When the Australian Racing Hall of Fame was created in 2001, just five horses were among the inaugural inductees and only one from the past half-century – Kingston Town. The black gelding ruled Australian racetracks in the early 1980s and became the first local thoroughbred to win AUD $1 million in prizemoney. ‘The King’ was far more comfortable on Sydney tracks, where he won 22 of 25 including 21 in a row, but still managed to win the W.S. Cox Plate on an unprecedented three occasions (1980-82). Trained by Tommy Smith and ridden in most of those starts by Malcolm Johnson, Kingston Town’s last Group 1 victory came in the 1982 Western Mail Classic at Ascot in Perth.

In 2007, local officials renamed the race in honour of the superstar. Appropriately, it is run under the conditions at which Kingston Town celebrated most of his marquee victories – weight for age – over a distance of 1800 metres.

Railway form must be respected

The race itself dates back to 1976 and has been run under several different names from the Marlboro 50,000 to the Fruit ‘N’ Veg Stakes. Similarly to the G1 races that have been raced under the TABtouch Masters banner over the past fortnight at Ascot, a smattering of eastern states horses will be taking on a strong local contingent for a share of the AUD $1 million in stakes.

Of the 16 runners, 11 ran in the Railway Stakes here two weeks ago. Three of the past winners of the Kingston Town Classic have come through that opening Group 1 of the Perth carnival. Only one of the past five winners has been backing up after running the previous week.

Despite the short history of this race, its honour roll is littered with multiple winners including Playing God (2010-11), Niconero (2006, 2008), Old Comrade (2000-01), Summer Beau (1996-97) and Family Of Man (1976, 1978).

Perth mare eyes back-to-back

Last year’s Kingston Town Classic winner Perfect Reflection is aiming to join that list and punters expect her to be prominent once again as the $4 favourite with William Hill. She has drawn barrier two in her attempt to turn the tables on Scales Of Justice and Good Project in Australia’s final Group One race of the calendar year.

The mare finished third behind that duo in the Group 1 Railway Stakes where Scales Of Justice led all the way. He faces a tougher task from the outside draw of 16 but has still attracted plenty of money as the clear second pick ($5.50 with William Hill), which he shares with Kiwi gelding Kawi. The Ascot track continues to favour runners on the speed, so expect Scales Of Justice to be prominent again, but Hong Kong-based jockey Douglas Whyte will need to spend plenty of fuel to have the 4yo gelding prominent.

Kiwi contender the one to beat

It was somewhat of a surprise to find Perfect Reflection at the top of the market, as Kawi is the runner with the strongest prospects heading into this race. Having been lumbered with 58.5kg in the Railway, the 6yo gelding now meets most of his rivals up to 5kg better under weight-for-age conditions. He was only beaten by 4.3 lengths last time out after being held up in the straight, so the step up to 1800m looks nicely timed in his third start in Western Australia. And this is a class animal, with five Group 1 wins among his record of 28:13-6-2.

For some value, Darren Weir’s Stratum Star looks overs at $12 on William Hill. He’s had a couple of trials locally to freshen up after the Melbourne spring and looked near his best in his previous outing (second) in the G3 Sandown Stakes on November 12.

Quakes, Snow Shake-up Field for 2016 Japan Cup

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To say the lead-up to the 2016 Japan Cup has been dramatic would be an understatement. The Fukushima prefecture, which faced the brunt of the 2011 tsunami that killed nearly 16,000 people, was again struck by a series of earthquakes – thankfully, without injury or damage. Then on Thursday, a freak snowstorm ahead of forecast weekend rain had punters scurrying for their formguides ahead of Sunday’s 36th running of the Japan Cup at Tokyo Racecourse. It was the first measurable November snowfall in Tokyo in 54 years.

This is without a doubt one of the most prestigious races on the face of the planet. The Japan Racing Association established the Japan Cup (2400 metres) as an international invitational race in order for local racehorses to have the opportunity to compete against horses of an international calibre. That philosophy has been franked time and time again with winners from the host nation, North America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy.

However, it’s been a decade since the internationals have emerged successful (Alkaased in 2005), a period during which Gentildonna became the only multiple winner of the race (2012-13). The prize money isn’t too shabby either, with a staggering purse of ¥624 million (about USD $5.5 million) on offer. The race starts in front of the main grandstand at Fuchu which, on a clear day, also affords a stunning view of Mount Fuji. The sweeping course includes an uphill climb in the long stretch run, which has helped produce some thrilling finishes over the past 35 years.
Wet conditions favour internationals

The prospect of heavy rain appears a dream come true for the connections of German invitee Iquitos, one of three foreign entrants in the 17-horse field. Two of Iquitos’ best performances have come on wet tracks. The four-year-old Adlerflug colt won the Grosser Preis von Baden (GI) on soft going on September 4, defeating one of Sunday’s rivals, Nightflower, by 2.75 lengths. Two races earlier he finished second behind 2014 Melbourne Cup (G1) winner Protectionist in the Grosser Hansa Preis (G2) at Hamburg on heavy turf. He’s still a tasty 33-1 with Paddy Power.

Nightflower, a four-year-old filly by Dylan Thomas, faces the prospect of rain and barrier 15. Trainer Peter Schiergen said his filly would prefer firm ground and a starting position better than last year’s No. 18, which produced an 11th-place finish. Also back for another shot at the region’s richest race is the French-trained four-year-old Dubawi colt Erupt. He finished sixth in last year’s Japan Cup and comes to this race fresh after a victory in the Pattison Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine on October 16 for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. However, all of Erupt’s best performances have also been on good to firm turf. In his only outing on soft going, he finished last of nine in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) in July.

Strong local contingent

Those visitors all have to contend with a typically impressive line-up of local contenders featuring Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, Tenno Sho (Spring) winner Kitasan Black, 2015 Arima Kinen victor Gold Actor and three-year-old Dee Majesty, winner of this year’s Satsuki Sho or (Japanese 2000 Guineas). Real Steel has not won in two starts since Dubai but finished second behind Maurice in his most recent start. Maurice, who would have been well regarded in this race, instead is being prepared for Hong Kong. Real Steel, a four-year-old colt by Deep Impact, is reunited with jockey Ryan Moore, who piloted him in the Dubai win. Alarmingly for the locals, most of them have never raced on worse-than-good surfaces and of the bulk which has, they’ve failed. However, it’s not unreasonable to think that sheer talent will ensure at least one of the Japanese horses will cut through the slop to victory. The best placed looks Kitasan Black (4/1 with Paddy Power). He has finished in the money in his past seven, four of them top level, four of them wins and two at the top level. He’s also proven at distances from 1800 to 3000 metres.

Sprinters Take Centre Stage of Day 2 of Perth Carnival

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The racing spotlight remains in Australia’s west this weekend with day 2 of the inaugural TABTouch Masters at Perth’s Ascot racecourse. The day’s feature is the AUD $1 million Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes, which is run under weight-for-age conditions over 1200 metres. On-pace runners dominated last Saturday’s Railway Stakes meeting but it’s hoped that, with the rail out six metres, this will be alleviated to some extent. WA’s premier sprint race was run over 1400m from 1937 until 1994 when it was cut to 1200m. Magnifisio and Buffering aim to join multiple winners La Trive (1970-71), Belinda’s Star (1975-76), Hardrada (2002-03) and Ortensia (2009, 11) and an honour roll that includes Takeover Target (2008), Miss Andretti (2005) and Placid Ark (1987).

East holding cards over west

The Winterbottom field is a fascinating mix of eastern states raiders, the bulk of which are deep into their spring campaigns, and the local contenders who’ve mostly been set for this specific race. The field of 12 is headed by the Joe Pride-trained Terravista which is coming off a last-start second to Redzel at Flemington. Darley Classic winner Malaguerra joins Terravista along with Takedown and the Lindsay Park pair of Keen Array and Sheidel in trying to claim a Group 1 for the visitors after local galloper Scales Of Justice won the Group 1 Railway Stakes last Saturday. The Chris Gangemi-trained Rock Magic is the highest-rated local galloper having won two of his past three starts while leading local hope State Solicitor will have to overcome barrier 11.

Sydney speedster the one to beat

The top two in the market are so difficult to split with Malaguerra ($3.30 with Ladbrokes) slightly shading Terravista ($3.60 with Ladbrokes). Favourites have won eight of the past 12 editions while just four winners in the past 20 years have jumped from a double-digit gate, so it’s reasonable to expect that this year’s Winterbottom winner will be wearing either saddlecloth #1 or #2. But the upside is clearly with Joe Pride’s sometimes frustrating 7yo gelding. Opening at $15 when the all-in market was released, that quote was slashed when Terravista returned in top order in the Listed Mumm Stakes on Crown Oaks Day. Carrying 60.5kg, Terravista was able to get within a head of winner Redzel. His record over six furlongs is an imposing 11:5-0-3.

Mare’s form out of this world

It’s an otherwise relatively thin day of black-type racing around the nation so for the next best of the day, check out the Roadwork Solutions Handicap (race 8) at Sydney’s Rosehill Gardens for the benchmark 78 fillies & mares over 1200 metres. It’s surprising to find #8 Interstellar at a 5-2 quote (with William Hill) with her form faultless since joining the Hawkes stake from New Zealand during the winter. She won first-up in Australia on July 30 and was barely tested in a trial at Rosehill just over a fortnight ago. This lightly raced 4yo mare has three wins from six career starts including two of three first-up and she looks a clear top pick over this fairly middling bunch.

Swan Form Looks Strong For Japan’s Mile Championship

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Japanese horse racing doesn’t register on the radar for most punters but it should – the thoroughbred scene in the Land of the Rising Sun is among the richest on the planet matched by the quality of the racing stock. The country’s leading runners will be highlighted over the next few weeks with the focus on Kyoto on Sunday for the latest running of the International Grade 1 Mile Championship. Kyoto is a fairly traditional US-style track, with a long run to the first corner from the 1600-metre start.

A short downhill chute takes runners to the second turn then into the home straight and within sight of a slice of the JPY 200,700,000 (approximately USD $2 million). First run in 1984, the Mile Championship is run at set weights (57kg) and is considered a stepping stone to the Hong Kong Mile as part of International Day at Sha Tin on December 11. It is the second race in the Japan Autumn International Series of races. Some big names have won the Mile Championship, including successive wins for Taiki Shuttle (1997 and 1998), Durandal (2003 and 2004) and Daiwa Major (2006 and 2007).

The race has been run on firm ground in the past three years, and just three favourites have saluted over the past decade. Race favourites have won 14 times in the three-decade history of the race. A field of 19 horses nominated for the feature race, including two three-year-olds – Lord Quest and Spectre. The last three-year-old to win the race was Agnes Digital in 2000. Unfortunately, the German-trained filly, Spectre, has been declared a non-starter, leaving a field of 18. Incredibly, eight of the 18 runners are sired from Deep Impact, the 2006 Japan Cup winner.

Satono Aladdin ($3.90) looks ideally placed here. The five-year-old by Deep Impact is coming off an impressive win in the Grade 2 Swan Stakes last month, as well as finishing a fourth in this year’s Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen. He was fourth in last year’s Mile Championship and has won seven times from 21 starts. He’s trained by Yasutoshi Ikee, who has a handy knack of getting horses just right. The value runner is Neorealism – this 5-year-old is tackling a Grade 1 (and the Kyoto circuit) for the first time. He caught the attention of the local racing fraternity when beating Maurice in the Grade 2 Sapporo Kinen (2000m) when leading all the way. He is six wins from 14 starts and is trained by one of the leading trainers Noriyuki Hori.

• Many of the better US 2-year-olds which didn’t in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile gather for this weekend’s $1 million Grade III Delta Downs Jackpot in Vinton, Louisiana. This year’s renewal includes winners from California, Kentucky, Minnesota and New York. The list features Dangerfield, Tip Tap Tapizar and Gunnevera but will all be chasing Line Judge, a Spring At Last colt that has won three successive races including the local prep for this, the $200,000 Jean Laffite. The Joe Sharp trainee has been dominant in all three wins and could be a major player in the battle for the 2017 Triple Crown.