Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

York Preview – Friday 15th May

Dante day at York certainly went the way of the bookmakers with the only winning favourite being in the two-year-old maiden race. The victory of Golden Horn and continuing uncertainty about him being supplemented for Epsom has left the Derby picture as murky as ever.

The final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup and that grand old servant, Brown Panther. He finally gained a well-deserved Group 1 victory in the Irish St Leger last season and was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup impressively. All ground seems to come alike to him these days and his stamina could see him home again on Friday.

Romsdal and Snow Sky are the young pretenders here and both were placed in classics last season. Romsdal won well enough at Kempton but I was disappointed with how easily he curled up at Newbury last time when challenged. He plugged on into third behind Arab Spring after making the running and I expect to see him ridden with more restraint this time. His Newbury defeat seems to have convinced connections that he would be better going down the Ascot Gold Cup route rather than looking at the top mile and a half races.

The opening two-year-old race looks wide open with several previous winners. Many of them won on the all-weather including New Road Side who made all to win easily at Southwell. That performance was more pleasing to the eye than the victories of either Delizia or Athas An Bhean and she gets the vote at around 6-1.

The second race on the card is a typical York handicap over a mile and a half. You can make a case for most of them but a couple of form lines suggest that Notarised could go well here for Mark Johnston. He was third at Hamilton last time out and finished seven lengths ahead of Esteaming. He meets that one on similar terms and is worth each-way support at around 12-1.

Top Tug and Ajman Bridge will be popular but don’t represent great value. Top Tug ran pretty flat at Newmarket first time out, although he will be better for this trip, while Ajman Bridge has not won since his second career start and yet has gone up over a stone in the weights.

Our final selection is Yasmeen in the 3.45 race. John Gosden’s filly looked very smart when winning on her debut at Newbury and the form has been boosted since. She can get the better of stable companion Sperry who won well at Ascot in the blue of Godolphin.

New Road Side 2.10 @6-1 BetVictor

Notarised 2.40 @12-1 Bet365

Brown Panther 3.15 @9-4 William Hill

Yasmeen 3.45 @5-2 William Hill

York Preview – Thursday 14th May

Betcirca followers were up 25 points to level stakes on Wednesday’s sports betting advice. Mahsoob (7-2) started the ball rolling at York and was followed by Algar Lad (16-1). The Champions League semi-final second leg between Real Madrid and Juventus yielded a further ten points profit after we correctly forecast the score line, the first goal scorer and the number of goals.

Thursday’s racing at York is all about the Dante Stakes, a race which looks certain to spark a major shake-up in the Epsom Derby betting. I have been scratching my head to think of an occasion when a handicap winner was made Derby favourite and I have so far failed to come up with one. Even trainer John Gosden has described it as “a bit silly” but we will know how silly after the Dante. Jack Hobbs is the horse in question and he is joined by stable companion Golden Horn.

Aidan O’Brien’s John F Kennedy ran too badly to be true last time but does not carry maximum stable confidence and I’m sticking with the Group 1 form of Elm Park. I followed him as a two-year-old and missing the Guineas due to the ground may have been a blessing in disguise.

After solving the conundrum of the six-furlong sprint on Wednesday I have to take a stab at Thursday’s five furlong dash. David O’Meara sounded certain that he would not be running Algar Lad again so I’m going for Desert Law who was not far behind him at Ripon. Unlike many of these, he is better at five furlongs than six.

Bragging is difficult to oppose having won at Newmarket despite looking likely to need the race. That was her first race beyond a mile and she was finishing strongly so could be quite a force over ten furlongs. Several of her rivals would prefer more cut in the ground and/or a longer trip.

David O’Meara could strike in another competitive handicap with Fort Bastion. He went for a repeat win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but never saw daylight all the way up the straight, finishing on a tight rein. He can reverse the form with runner-up Off Art who is lightly raced and feared most.

Tendu looks solid in the sprint at 4.20 after chasing home Limato at Ascot. The winner is surely going to take high honours in the sprinting division this season. Moscato is a typically progressive Sir Mark Prescott stayer and can extend his sequence to five in the last.

Desert Law 2.10 @14-1 William Hill

Bragging 2.40 @5-2 Paddy Power

Elm Park 3.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Fort Bastion 3.45 @8-1 Betfair

Tendu 4.20 @5-4 Ladbrokes

Moscato 5.20 @11-4 Ladbrokes

York Preview – Wednesday 13th May

The York Dante meeting will surely clarify the picture for this year’s Epsom Derby. I can’t remember ever having a handicap winner at the head of the Derby market going into the York meeting but Jack Hobbs has some serious rivals including Elm Park and John F Kennedy. The big race is on Thursday but there is some cracking entertainment on the opening day including the Musidora Stakes.

Together Forever was expected to line up in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket but she missed the race, along with stable companion Found. That horse was beaten at odds-on when she did finally appear and Together Forever shoulders a 4lbs Group 1 penalty on Wednesday. Her main rival is Star Of Seville who was a comfortable winner at Newbury for John Gosden. She beat Ooty Hill and the disappointing Winters Moon so it is easy to pick holes in the form.

The day’s feature race is the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes with some very promising sprinters in action. I am reluctant to pass over Naadirr, having tipped him ahead of his impressive win at Doncaster. However, I followed Muthmir religiously last season and he ended the season in fine style by winning the Portland Handicap. Lightning Moon is another worthy of respect and is unbeaten in three starts. It certainly looks a cracking renewal and should provide a good guide to the top sprints this season.

Mahsoob also gave us a winner when beating a big field at Newbury. I was concerned about his high draw that day and he has not fared any better here with stall 18. Field Of Fame was third that day and also ran a terrific race for such an inexperienced horse. We’ll keep faith with Mahsoob who has some very ambitious entries this summer including the Eclipse at Sandown.

The sprint handicap at 2.40 looks wide open and a good case can be made for Pipers Note and Polybius. I’m going to take a chance on Algar Lad who didn’t see much daylight up the far rail last time but was only beaten a little over a length at the line. He looks worth each-way support at around 16-1.

It could be a great day for William Haggas who follows Muthmir with two live chances in handicap races. Foreign Diplomat won with his head in his chest last time out and Graham Lee will be looking to deliver him late on in the 4.20. Ryan Moore gets the leg up on the unbeaten Osaruveetil in the final race. He looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 81 after winning well at Kempton. Frankie Dettori can steer home Dheban for Richard Hannon in receipt of 10lbs from Ravenhoe in the two-year-old race.

Mahsoob 2.10 @7-2 William Hill

Algar Lad 2.40 @16-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

Muthmir 3.15 @5-1 Paddy Power

Together Forever 3.45 @7-4 Paddy Power

Foreign Diplomat 4.20 @7-1 Betfair

Dheban 4.50 @Evens Bet365

Osaruveetil 5.20 @11-2 Betfair

York Saturday Preview

You can tell when the turf season is coming to a close when the races are being won by horses that were beaten by half the length of the street last time out! Old Town Boy was beaten 32 lengths last time while Miami Carousel was beaten 14 lengths when last of six, yet both were good enough to win at York on Friday!

The change in the going plays a big part and the ground remains soft ahead of Saturday’s card. The action gets under way at 1.50 with a mile handicap for three-year-olds. Empress Ali was a 20-1 shot when beating Master Of Finance at Chester last time and can confirm the form on 2lbs worse terms. She has already won on heavy ground and is hard to fault after being in the first two in each of her last four starts.

First Flight will be a popular choice in the second race after chasing home Air Pilot at Newbury in soft ground. Richard Hughes gave him a lot to do that day but he overhauled all bar the well handicapped winner and the handicapper has only pushed him up 2lbs. The winner was ante-post favourite for the Cambridgeshire but missed the cut so this looks a gilt-edged opportunity for the Godolphin horse.

Charming Thought has been taken out of the 2.55 race which could leave the way clear for Bond’s Girl to follow up her Doncaster victory. She had two lengths to spare over Mattmu that day and meets that rival on the same terms. Mattmu ran a fine race to beat all bar Limato at Redcar last week but there seems no obvious reason for him to reverse Doncaster form.

Finding the winner of the Coral Sprint Trophy at 3.30 may be rather like looking for a needle in a haystack! Twenty battle-hardened sprinters line up for the six-furlong dash including a fascinating re-match between Spinatrix and Supplicant, first and second at Ripon in September. They also meet on the same terms while Seeking Magic is allowed 2lbs for his half a length fourth. Ryan Tate also claims 3lbs off his back but he has no form on soft ground.

One who won’t mind the ground is Aetna who looked unlucky last time at Newmarket when third to Secret Hint. She appeared to stumble when starting her run and never really saw daylight until it was too late. A course and distance winner on soft ground in May, she is the selection.

Empress Ali 1.50 @6-1 Coral

First Flight 2.20 @4-1 Boyle Sports

Bond’s Girl 2.50 @4-1 Bet365

Aetna 3.30 @4-1 Ladbrokes

York Friday Preview

York stages a seven-race card on Friday with the going now officially soft after the midweek rain. There is a real end of season feel to the flat racing now with large fields as trainers try to get a run out of their horses before the winter sets in.

Acolyte looks as though he has the potential to be more than a 78 rated horse in the opening nursery for Roger Charlton. He finished third to the Group 2 winner Elm Park on his debut at Newbury before winning nicely at Kempton and he looks weighted to get us off to a winning start in the 2.00. The danger may come from The Wispe who was given a typically patient ride by Graham Lee last time out and sneaks in a the foot of the handicap.

The second race is a real cavalry charge with twenty runners over five furlongs. Bogart should go close under Amy Ryan after his excellent run at Ayr but I am siding with Long Awaited for David Barron. His “long suffering” supporters have been waiting for him to land a big sprint for some time but the omens were good at Haydock last time out when he stayed on well into fourth place and the yard are firing on all cylinders.

GM Hopkins looks very progressive for John Gosden and bids to defy a 9lbs rise in the weights in the featured mile handicap at 3.00. The horse was very impressive in a much tougher race at Newmarket last time out and will handle the soft ground without any problem. He certainly looks the least exposed in this field and can make it four wins on the bounce.

Kings Bayonet has been a good servant to the Alan King stable in the familiar Ponsonby colours and can land the 4.05 race under Hayley Turner. He was forced to switch around horses last time when a close fourth at Haydock and he is not the quickest animal in training. The danger is probably Emerahldz for Richard Fahey who has been very consistent all season.

Finally, Shouranour can provide the in-form David O’Meara with another winner in the closing apprentice handicap at 5.10. He got off the mark in fine style at Ayr last time over a mile but was pulling a cart with a furlong to travel and the drop back in trip won’t trouble him. The 9lbs rise in the handicap is more of a concern but he looks the pick of four runners in the race for the local trainer.

Acolyte 2.00 @7-2 Betfair

Long Awaited 2.30 @12-1 Bet365

GM Hopkins 3.00 @5-2 Ladbrokes

Kings Bayonet 4.05 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Shouranour 5.10 @13-2 BetVictor