Tag: Cesarewitch

Newmarket Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cesarewitch day card at Newmarket looks like being a thorough test of stamina for punters as well as the horses! As well as the 32-runner marathon, the seven-race card also features a 24-runner mile and a half handicap.

We have previewed the Cesarewitch separately and are hoping for a run for our money from Suegioo and Rhombus. The preceding race is just as taxing to work out with all sorts of interwoven form lines. I am hoping that I have unearthed a well weighted horse in Andrew Balding’s Nabatean.

The son of Rock Of Gibraltar was having only his fourth start when staying on into fourth behind Battersea at Ascot in July. He had previously got off the mark in a Lingfield maiden and was given a lot to do by David Probert, moving up from last place approaching the home turn. He has a lengthy absence to overcome but is 16lbs better off with the winner for four and a half lengths. That ought to give him a decent chance and Hayley Turner has landed the ride with just 8st 1lb to carry.

I have plenty of respect for Luca Cumani’s Connecticut who looked set to complete a four-timer at York before finding the mile and three-quarters just beyond him. He is well worth an each-way bet in a wide open contest.

The same colours are carried by stable mate Bartholomew Fair on the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at 2.05. He beat an ordinary field at Yarmouth easily last time but I think this race could produce a shock with both Future Empire and Order Of St George looking suspect. Future Empire was just beaten at Sandown in the Solario Stakes but a good sized horse blanket would have covered the first four home.

Order Of St George looks a very edgy type, although he did win his maiden by a street. I think Hail Clodius could also be under-rated. He thrashed Fieldsman here last time out and that horse has won twice since.

Each-way betting could also be the order of the day in the Listed race at 2.40 with nineteen fillies and mares going to post. I am reluctant to pass over Blue Waltz after she bolted up at Doncaster last time but she still has to improve to win this and better value may be found with This Is The Day. She won only a modest Brighton handicap before defying a big hike in the weights at Haydock and she could surprise a few here. Albasharah is probably the form horse if she repeats her excellent run at Yarmouth when second to Hadaatha. The winner was only beaten half a length in a Group 1 at Longchamp last weekend.

Bartholomew Fair 2.05 (e/w) @9-1 Bet365

Hail Clodius (e/w) 2.05 @20-1 Paddy Power non-runner

Albasharah 2.40 @11-2 William Hill

This Is The Day (e/w) 2.40 @18-1 Bet Victor

Connecticut (e/w) 3.10  @10-1 Skybet

Nabatean (e/w) 3.10 @12-1 Paddy Power

Suegioo (e/w) 3.50 @18-1 Paddy Power

Rhombus (e/w) 3.50 @25-1 Coral

Cesarewitch 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket always used to be one of my favourite races of the season. Back in the 1980’s it was not too difficult to find the winner with the likes of Popsi’s Joy, Halsbury, Mountain Lodge, Kayudee, Nomadic Way and Double Dutch all well fancied.

The same cannot be said of the most recent winners. First we had jump trainers monopolising the race such as Messrs Pipe, Hobbs and Henderson. That last four winners needed Mystic Meg with Aaim To Prosper winning twice (16-1 and 66-1) along with Never Can Tell (25-1) and Scatter Dice (66-1). Could we be in for a third successive “double carpet” winner this year?

Not according to the bookmakers who are running scared from Irish raider Quick Jack. The high-class hurdler won at Galway in July when hooded for the first time. It was not exactly the kind of race where you can rely on the form too much but the third horse was only just beaten at Ascot recently. By my calculations the horse has been raised 9lbs but there seems to be plenty of confidence behind him. If you have managed to get on at a double-figure price you should be well pleased but he is less tempting at around 6-1.

Big Easy and Ray Ward are next in the betting. The former was a staying on second in the trial race here last month but finished only 21st a year ago and has not won since scoring over three miles at Cheltenham in April last year. Ray Ward was behind Big Easy last time and was beaten by Teak at Goodwood in July. You have to go back just as far for his last victory. Teak followed up by winning over an extended three miles at Plumpton!

Maid In Rio bolted up at Ascot in July off a mark of 93 but is now 10lbs higher and has looked laboured in her last three races. Earth Amber was quietly fancied here a year ago and only beat one horse home. Her form varies from second in a Group 3 on the flat to second in a maiden hurdle at Fakenham!

I’ve been very impressed with Cam Hardie this season and he teams up with the progressive Rhombus for Ismael Mohammed. He carries only a 4lb penalty for his win at Newbury, a race in which he gave his rivals a good six lengths start. Waterclock was second here last year and is lower in the weights, unfortunately so low that he may not even get into the final line-up.

Big weights are not necessarily a bar to success in this race so Suegioo should not be discarded with 9st 8lb. Marco Botti’s gelding stayed on well at Doncaster last month behind Stomachion and should give Martin Harley a good ride.

Rhombus @25-1 Coral

Suegioo @18-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5 non-runner – no bet

Cesarewitch Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cesarewitch has recently been run largely for the benefit of National Hunt trainers with the likes of Messrs Henderson and Pipe enjoying considerable success. Henderson is back in search of more with his admirably consistent handicapper Lieutenant Miller but there are some classy horses in opposition.

Tiger Claw runs in the same colours as Lieutenant Miller and has not run since winning the Ebor for Lady Cecil. He is set to race off a 6lbs higher mark but connections have not been phased by that or by the prospect of lumping 9st 10lb between Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Clearly both horses are fit and fancied with Ryan Moore an eye-catching booking for Henderson’s charge.

The Irish are not averse to the occasional tilt at this valuable prize and plenty of punters see Domination as a likely winner after two easy wins over hurdles. I am slightly put off by the fact that he has risen 18lbs since winning here in the Cesarewitch Trial just over a year ago. Pallasator was considered a possible for the Ebor earlier in the season but did not reappear until Haydock last month when staying on dourly behind Platinum. He is still lightly-raced and bookmakers are always wary of Sir Mark Prescott’s runners in the big handicaps.

However, they are presently running scared after a plunge on French raider Smoky Hill. The horse has halved in price since trainer Mikel Delzangles declared his intention to run whatever the conditions. By coincidence, Delzangles had just started working for Jimmy Fitzgerald when Trainglot won the race in 1990 in the same colours that are to be carried on Saturday by Smoky Hill.

He has stated that the horse is very well handicapped, something that is quickly apparent when looking at his last run. He finished fourth in the Prix Gladiateur, a Group 3 race. To get some idea of the form lines, trailing in his wake were Genzy (104) and Aiken (112). Smoky Hill gets in here with a rating of just 91. Earlier in the season he had finished only a couple of lengths behind Melbourne Cup hope and Gold Cup third Top Trip (113).

It appears that he has about 10lbs in hand, if the official figures are correct. His trainer has confirmed that he’ll run irrespective of the ground conditions so 10-1 looks too good to refuse.

Smoky Hill 10-1 (Sportingbet)