Tag: David O’Meara

York Preview – Thursday 14th May

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Betcirca followers were up 25 points to level stakes on Wednesday’s sports betting advice. Mahsoob (7-2) started the ball rolling at York and was followed by Algar Lad (16-1). The Champions League semi-final second leg between Real Madrid and Juventus yielded a further ten points profit after we correctly forecast the score line, the first goal scorer and the number of goals.

Thursday’s racing at York is all about the Dante Stakes, a race which looks certain to spark a major shake-up in the Epsom Derby betting. I have been scratching my head to think of an occasion when a handicap winner was made Derby favourite and I have so far failed to come up with one. Even trainer John Gosden has described it as “a bit silly” but we will know how silly after the Dante. Jack Hobbs is the horse in question and he is joined by stable companion Golden Horn.

Aidan O’Brien’s John F Kennedy ran too badly to be true last time but does not carry maximum stable confidence and I’m sticking with the Group 1 form of Elm Park. I followed him as a two-year-old and missing the Guineas due to the ground may have been a blessing in disguise.

After solving the conundrum of the six-furlong sprint on Wednesday I have to take a stab at Thursday’s five furlong dash. David O’Meara sounded certain that he would not be running Algar Lad again so I’m going for Desert Law who was not far behind him at Ripon. Unlike many of these, he is better at five furlongs than six.

Bragging is difficult to oppose having won at Newmarket despite looking likely to need the race. That was her first race beyond a mile and she was finishing strongly so could be quite a force over ten furlongs. Several of her rivals would prefer more cut in the ground and/or a longer trip.

David O’Meara could strike in another competitive handicap with Fort Bastion. He went for a repeat win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but never saw daylight all the way up the straight, finishing on a tight rein. He can reverse the form with runner-up Off Art who is lightly raced and feared most.

Tendu looks solid in the sprint at 4.20 after chasing home Limato at Ascot. The winner is surely going to take high honours in the sprinting division this season. Moscato is a typically progressive Sir Mark Prescott stayer and can extend his sequence to five in the last.

Desert Law 2.10 @14-1 William Hill

Bragging 2.40 @5-2 Paddy Power

Elm Park 3.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Fort Bastion 3.45 @8-1 Betfair

Tendu 4.20 @5-4 Ladbrokes

Moscato 5.20 @11-4 Ladbrokes

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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After a hectic weekend of top quality racing we are back to the bread and butter at Nottingham on Wednesday. As good as it was to see Treve go into the history books with her back-to-back Arc success, I have to say that I was less than impressed with the Japanese riders. You would have thought that they would know how to ride the race after many years of trying but they gave their mounts no chance by holding them up way out the back.

The more humble offerings at Nottingham get under way at 2.20 with a maiden race which should go the way of Luca Cumani and Andrea Atzeni. Spiriting ran a good race on his second start when second at Yarmouth behind Bartel. Firmament finished a fair way back in fourth that day and ran a good race on Monday to finish second to the useful Master Apprentice. A repeat of that form would make Spiriting very hard to beat here.

The second race is a very competitive nursery but there is no stopping David O’Meara at the moment. His Group 1 win in the Prix de L’Abbaye on Sunday with Move In Time was the icing on the cake for a memorable season. He runs Snow Cloud who showed enormous improvement after a lengthy absence to beat Compton River at Redcar. The jockey never had to resort to the whip that day so there should be plenty more to come. The main danger could be the top weight Ivors Rebel who has been keeping much better company.

The best bet on the card could be the progressive Black Granite in the nine furlong nursery at 4.25. Jeremy Noseda’s gelding looked very moderate earlier in the season but the application of a visor has transformed him. A game victory at Salisbury was followed by an emphatic success at Newmarket. Normally I would hesitate at a 9lbs rise in the weights but there aren’t that many two-year-olds that stay beyond a mile and he is certainly one of them.

The final three races look virtually impossible but I am going to have a small interest in Golden Spear in the 4.25. He is yet to race beyond a mile but his last couple of runs suggest that he is crying out for it. The danger is probably Tercel who is on a very fair mark for Sir Michael Stoute and looked set to win at Newbury last time. He didn’t look the easiest of rides that day and Ryan Moore will probably be looking to deliver him with a late rattle.

Spiriting 2.20 @Bet365

Snow Cloud 2.50 @5-1 Bet365

Black Granite 4.25 @11-4 Bet365

Golden Spear 5.25 @11-1 Coral

Haydock Friday Preview

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Rosalie Bonheur (8-1) guaranteed a profit from our three selections on Thursday with Marsh Hawk just beaten in a photograph. I must admit to being pleasantly surprised by the SP return on our winner!

Winners were hard to find on the opening day of the three-day Sprint Cup meeting at Haydock but I’ve been going through the form for Friday in the hope of digging up a winner or two. I will be disappointed if Mistrusting cannot win the 2.30 for Godolphin after her fine debut run behind Malabar.

Mick Channon’s filly has gone on to win a much better class of race at Goodwood and Mistrusting definitely had the winner under pressure before experience told. Her jockey was not hard on her in the closing stages and she should win this unless there is a surprise package among the newcomers.

The sprint handicap at 3.30 has attracted three last-time-out winners with Poyle Vinnie and Triple Chocolate both seeking a hat-trick. I just favour Triple Chocolate after the way he battled to the line to win at Newmarket and the danger could be Free Rein. Ralph Beckett’s runner has been tried at longer trips and the booking of Richard Hughes could be significant.

If that race is tricky, the 4.10 is virtually impossible! Having managed to pick a 1-2 in a five-furlong dash at Chester at the weekend I am going to try my luck with Master Bond here. He looked like completing a hat-trick last time when cruising up to the leaders but did not find the acceleration that was expected. He has a more experienced jockey aboard here and should get a more positive ride.

As you would expect, there are a stack of dangers including Random Success who ran inexplicably badly last time out at Newmarket. Come On Dave ran well in the void race at Epsom the other day and is still in good form but we’ll stick with David O’Meara’s runner.

Our final bet of the day is Madeed in the 4.20. Brian Meehan’s three-year-old has run two cracking races in far better races than this at Goodwood in recent weeks. He was placed at the big festival meeting behind Lyn Valley and then finished second to The Corsican. Paul Hanagan did not enjoy his finest hour on the most recent occasion, bringing him very wide into the straight and then running into a pocket. He can make amends here off the same handicap mark.

Mistrusting 2.30 @4-6 Betfair

Triple Chocolate 3.35 @9-2 Betfair

Master Bond 4.10 @8-1 Bet365

Madeed 5.20 @5-2 Coral

York Dante Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Nocturn’s narrow defeat on the opening day was a bit of a sickener. Everything went to plan until the last 50 yards when Mass Rally appeared fast and late on the opposite side to foil the gamble. Having worked out that his tendency to hang left would be negated by his low draw I was feeling quite pleased with myself as he looked set to complete his hat-trick. Hopefully there will be other days for this promising sprinter.

I was also left wondering what might have been after the Duke of York Stakes when Hawkeyethenoo was a fast finishing fourth, the fate of all good each-way bets. Jockey Graham Lee has looked a natural since switching to the flat from jumps but this was not one of his better-judged races. He passed up a couple of opportunities to switch his mount into the clear on the outside in favour of taking the more congested inside route. By the time he got a clear run it was too late.

Day two features the Dante Stakes and the latest raid by team O’Brien on the Derby trials. The Chester Vase and Dee Stakes looked particularly weak affairs whilst the Lingfield Derby trial was reduced to a virtual walkover for Nevis following the defection of Greatwood. O’Brien saddles Indian Chief here, an easy winner of his maiden last time out and currently available at 20-1 for Epsom. The stable also has Mars and Battle Of Marengo to consider. The Derby is in danger of becoming a straight fight between Dawn Approach and Team O’Brien unless the Dante can throw up a rival contender.

Sir Michael Stoute withdrew Telescope from the race with a minor infection and it now seems that the colt will have to go straight to Epsom. He runs in the same colours of Greatwood who could prove an able deputy on Thursday after a highly promising run at Newmarket. He was finishing best of all behind Windhoek that day and shaped as though a mile and a half would suit him even better. Soft ground was put forward as the reason for his absence at Lingfield but I am slightly concerned that he may already find this mile and a quarter a little sharp. Luca Cumani knows how to train a Derby winner and I think this likeable colt could enter the picture tomorrow. William Hill offer 5-1 for the Dante and 25-1 for the Derby so I shall take a little of both and hope that he puts in a bold showing.

The Hambleton Handicap has always been one of the best mile handicaps of the season, often providing clues to races such as the Hunt Cup and Goodwood’s Golden Mile. Tomorrow’s race does not appear to have quite the same quality about it but I am intrigued by David O’Meara’s two runners. Two For Two and Anderiego finished third and second respectively in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, both coming from way off the pace. Two For Two was knocked sideways by St Moritz early on and it is not surprising to see him chalked up favourite. It would be tempting fate not to have a saver on Anderiego and both should run well.

In the stayers race I am siding with Hidden Justice who has been transformed by a spell over hurdles. He won easily at Pontefract on his return to the flat and could be up to defying a 10lb rise in the weights tomorrow.

Greatwood 5-1 Dante William Hill, 25-1 (each-way) Derby William Hill
Two For Two 9-2 William Hill
Anderiego 9-1 (each-way) William Hill
Hidden Justice 5-1 Ladbrokes

Newmarket Craven Stakes Day Preview

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Garswood kept up the good work for us on the opening day of the Craven meeting, running out a most impressive winner of the European Free Handicap. Such is the nature of racing these days that any horse that wins a half decent race is given quotes for everything from the Derby to the Boat race! However, I was surprised to see Garswood being quoted for the 2000 Guineas.

Before the race even trainer Richard Fahey had some reservations about whether or not he would stay seven furlongs. The colt dispelled those fears by winning with his ears pricked but you have to question whether or not it was classic form. I don’t think I shall be re-investing the winnings at 25-1 for the Guineas but he certainly looks one to follow.

Talking of re-investing winnings, Wednesday’s card poses a problem with our 9-1 Doncaster winner Move In Time turning out quickly for the Group 3 Abernant Stakes. At first glance this looks like a stiff task after winning a handicap off 95 on Saturday. Even if we give him a rating of 100 for his victory he still has to find at least 7lb with Captain Ramius, Hawkeyethenoo, Jimmy Styles, The Cheka and Tiddliwinks. Of those, Captain Ramius is race fit having chased home Jack Dexter at Doncaster but he might need seven furlongs on this better ground. I tipped Hawkeyethenoo when he won the Stewards Cup last season so I have plenty of time for his chances and The Cheka usually runs well fresh. With the bookies going 5-1 the field, I think I am going to have to put this race in the “too difficult” drawer.

A field of just four for the Craven Stakes is disappointing but they are all smart colts. Richard Hannon runs Havana Gold and Toronado and the vibes from the stable suggest that the latter is a genuine classic contender. Dundonnell and Tawhid are no slouches and this could be a very tactical affair. Another potential classic colt is on show in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy when Ghurair is expected to go off odds-on favourite. On official ratings he has the best part of a stone in hand on this lot but he is untried over a mile and a quarter. There are some promising types in the field, notably Luca Cumani’s Greatwood who looks sure to relish the extra distance. The stable had a runner in the Nell Gwynn Stakes today that ran very poorly so I shall keep a watchful eye on Greatwood for the time being.

The Nell Gwynn produced a 10-1 winner in Hot Snap, trained by Sir Henry Cecil. Although she beat a good sort in Sky Lantern it seems a little early to be making her 1000 Guineas favourite. Bookies slashed her odds to 5-1 from 40-1! Connections were apparently thinking about the Coronation Stakes as her main target before the race but will presumably run her at Newmarket now. I’d rather see the other trials before wading in at those sort of odds.

I do have one bet for Thursday and it is provided by Move In Time’s trainer David O’Meara. Bet365 have chalked up Sandy Lane at 2-1 for the 4.30 at Ripon tomorrow. The horse had the race won two furlongs out last time and could have won by fifteen lengths. Enough said!

Sandy Lane 4.30 Ripon 2-1 Bet365

Doncaster 13th April Preview

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The flat turf racing season is slowly creaking into gear and will take centre stage next week with Newmarket’s Craven meeting. Saturday’s card at Doncaster is a league or two below that but there is some good competitive sport on offer.

The most interesting race on the card is the Doncaster Mile. The field has been reduced to six by the late withdrawal of Moonstone Magic and tactics are sure to play a big part. The one that I’m particularly interested in is Richard Fahey’s Gabrial. He was a smart three-year-old but inclined to hang during his races, a trait that he displayed when flashing past a good field at Haydock last season. He was very highly tried after that, even finding himself in the same race as Frankel at Goodwood. He is not in that class and has been gelded during the summer to keep his mind on the job. Kieren Fallon has the job of navigating his way through this small field.

The horse that I expect to prove the most serious obstacle is the tough and consistent Highland Knight. Andrew Balding’s six-year-old went on to win a Group 2 at Baden-Baden after making all in a decent handicap at Epsom. I would be very surprised if Liam Keniry does not adopt the front-running role here with Fallon stalking him on Gabrial. At 4-1, it is worth taking a chance that Gabrial is a more tractable customer than last season.

The bet365 Handicap looks almost impossible to solve. Twenty runners go to post over six furlongs with Cammidge Trophy winner Jack Dexter heading the weights. He had Our Jonathon just behind him in third that day but it could be closer on Saturday if the going stays good. My own view is that it wasn’t a particularly strong race in the Cammidge and they could both be vulnerable to something from lower in the handicap.

Thunderball won a handicap here last time out and is re-opposed by Spinatrix (2nd), King of Jazz (3rd) and Shropshire (4th). You could make a case for any of them here but Thunderball was always handy and stuck to his guns in the closing stages. He could confirm the places although I am wary of Shropshire who was going on well at the finish.

There is a host of other contenders including Sir Michael Stoute’s Duke of Firenze. His place at the head of the market owes more to the fact that he has been kept in training by Sir Michael than his actual form. Move In Time bolted up at Musselburgh on his first start for David O’Meara and could be an improver. The question mark is whether he actually stays six furlongs with all of his best form over five. His odds have been cut from 14-1 to a top price of 9-1 with Paddy Power and it could pay to follow the market.

Gabrial 4-1 William Hill
Move In Time 9-1 Paddy Power