Tag: Ebor Handicap

York Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Sole Power and Pale Mimosa (both tipped here at 7-2) put Betcirca followers nearly 30 points up on the week. The York Ebor meeting comes to a close on Saturday with some very competitive racing with the feature race due off at 3.50.

The gamble of the race is Pallasator for Sir Mark Prescott. The five-year-old has now been bought by Qatar Racing and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him contesting some big Cup races next season. Apart from having missed any value in his price, I am put off by his draw in stall 22. It shouldn’t be too much of an issue over a mile and three-quarters but I’m sure connections would have been happier if he had been in a low to middle stall.

One that fits the bill is Marco Botti’s De Rigueur in stall 6. He has beaten Pallasator before at Haydock and should finish close to the favourite on that evidence. He is three times the price and has to be the each-way selection.

The day’s racing gets off to a subdued start with seven runners lining up for the Strensall Stakes. Having tipped Farraaj in the John Smith’s Cup and collected three times previously on Graphic, something has to give. The drop back to a mile may count against Farraaj but he is a free-running sort and I just give him the verdict.

The Melrose Handicap is every bit as competitive as the Ebor with a whole host of improving three-year-olds. Connecticut’s form has been boosted time and again and he looks the sort who will find more when necessary. With Cumani’s team in such fine form he is hard to oppose but I am going to have a saver on Captain Morley who should appreciate this trip.

He was desperately unlucky at the Chester May meeting when flying through into second and made amends on his next visit. He was then a fair third at Royal Ascot behind Elite Army, staying on up the straight. He could give Jamie Spencer the winner that he has been waiting for this week.

Baitha Alga has also been a good friend to this column with three victories on the trot. He has not been out since Royal Ascot and that may leave him vulnerable in the closing stages. He also has to shoulder a 3lbs penalty and I think Muhaarar may run him close. He didn’t settle over seven furlongs at Ascot and was previously third to the classy Ivawood. He was inches behind Jungle Cat but that one ran disappointingly at Goodwood.

Ajman Bridge ran a cracker at Goodwood when just failing to catch Sennockian Star. He has another tough task in the 5.00 but deserves to win a decent prize.

Farraaj 2.05 York @7-4 Totesport, Stan James

Connecticut 2.40 York @6-1 Bet365

Captain Morley 2.40 York @10-1 (each-way) BetVictor

Baitha Alga 3.15 York @14-5 BetBright

Muhaarar 3.15 York @8-1 BetVictor

De Rigueur 3.50 York @14-1 (each-way) BetVictor

Ajman Bridge 5.00 York @5-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

York Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The 40-1 shock win of Jwala in the Nunthorpe just about sums up the week so far on the Knavesmire! Moviesta had won the King George at Goodwood with Jwala finishing last but this time it was the other way around. Apparently Jwala had banged her head leaving the stalls last time and was probably suffering from concussion. After three days of York, I know the feeling!

I thought at least Simenon would get a few pounds back in the Lonsdale but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw him take up the running under Murtagh. I’d put the Irishman in the top half dozen riders at present but it hadn’t occurred to me that he’d be doing anything other than holding Simenon up for a late run against a fairly one-paced bunch. Not surprisingly, he found one staying on well enough to struggle past him in the long home straight.

Saturday’s card doesn’t exactly look like an easy way to get back on level terms with the Ebor backed up by an equally open looking Melrose Handicap. Havana Cooler looked like damned hard work at Goodwood when staying on to be third and I wouldn’t even be sure of him confirming the form with Van Percy and Elidor (fourth and fifth).

I think the bit of give in the ground may suit Van Percy more than some of these and the 7lb claimer puts him in on a good weight. He has also got a decent draw whereas a lot of the fancied runners are out wide so 14-1 with Stan James looks a fair each-way bet.

A couple of weeks ago I tipped Sun Central for the Ebor but the change of going and being lumbered with top weight don’t bode well for his chances. A number of leading contenders are absent and Opinion now has an obvious chance under Ryan Moore. He never saw daylight in the slowly run Old Newton Cup and did well to finish as close as he did in fifth.

I may have been tempted to back Genzy who looked desperately unlucky not to catch Bishop Roko on his penultimate start. He was mixing it with some decent stayers at Newbury in the Geoffrey Freer and did well to finish fourth but he is drawn in the car park in stall 22. One who could run well at a huge price is Amanda Perrett’s Blue Surf. He has been fancied a couple of times this season but failed to land a blow and the ease in the ground may see some improvement.

He was actually joint-favourite for a competitive race at Goodwood last time but found himself trapped on the inside when the pace quickened and could only plod on at the one pace. He’s got a bit further to travel here but should be able to lie handy from stall 10 and rates a decent each-way alternative to the favourite.

Van Percy 14-1 Stan James

Opinion 6-1 Paddy Power

Blue Surf 33-1 Ladbrokes

Ebor Handicap Ante-Post Preview

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The Ebor is Europe’s richest Flat handicap and it takes a pretty classy horse to win it. No three-year-old has been successful since Mediterranean won it for Aidan O’Brien in 2011. Purple Moon, a third winner in the race for Luca Cumani, was the only favourite to oblige in the last fourteen years. If you take out Purple Moon, the last six winners have returned at 100-1, 25-1, 25-1, 14-1, 25-1 and 12-1.

OK, so that doesn’t inspire confidence but let’s take a look at the ante-post market. The favourite is Sir Michael Stoute’s Opinion, a good winner at Ascot before finishing an unlucky fifth in the Old Newton Cup. He was saddled with top weight in the Haydock race and Kieren Fallon was never able to get him in the clear. It was a muddling race and there’s no doubt that he can be counted an unlucky loser. Whilst he must have a chance, ante-post odds of 10-1 do not excite me, especially given the recent trend in the race.

Opinion had previously held off the late challenge of Stencive who has since gone on to run an almost identical race in the John Smith’s Cup. He could not catch his stable companion Danchai on that occasion but he is going up the handicap without winning and the distance will be foreign territory. Trainer William Haggas may have a better candidate in Sun Central who surprised me with the ease with which he won the Silver Cup over course and distance. Understandably the handicapper has raised him 8lbs for that success but he has to be on the short list.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Well Sharp was an emphatic winner at York and again at Royal Ascot but he does seem to prefer a little give in the ground. He has gone up a further 7lbs for his Ascot win and might come into calculations if the weather takes a turn for the worse.

Two horses that have been well backed are Sheikhzayedroad and Pallasator but I couldn’t have them at any price. I don’t think that the former would have gone past Forgotten Voice or Lost In The Moment at Goodwood last week even if he had got a clear run and I don’t fancy his chances of weaving through an Ebor field. Pallasator has the makings of a good old-fashioned Sir Mark Prescott gamble. He hasn’t even run yet this season and he will have to be something special to win this first time out.

I went for Ernest Hemingway at massive odds for the King George but Master O’Brien decided to save him for the Goodwood Cup. The rain caused him to abandon that decision and he’s almost certain to be carrying 10 stone if he runs here. There has been a bit of money for Roger Charlton’s Bishop Roko but he may lack a bit of experience for the hustle and bustle of this race.

I thought John Gosden’s Camborne ran an encouraging race behind Harris Tweed at Goodwood although the trainer himself admits that the horse is a law unto himself. He seems happiest going in and out of horses rather than settling into a nice rhythm. He is guaranteed to meet trouble in running in the Ebor so he could be the type to rise to the occasion.

Sun Central 12-1 Ladbrokes
Camborne 20-1 Ladbrokes