Tag: Mount Logan

November Handicap Preview

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The flat turf season finally comes to a close on Saturday with the November Handicap at Doncaster.

My record in this race was not great up until last year when William Haggas won it with Conduct (8-1). I wonder what ever happened to that horse? Saturday’s race looks the usual minefield of criss-crossing form lines with the possible exception of Luca Cumani’s Mount Logan.

I remember tipping this one last year in a two-year-old maiden and thinking that he looked like a stayer in the making. I was surprised when Cumani ran him in a Group 3 as a two-year-old but it did show that he must have thought something of him. He has been steady rather than spectacular this season, winning a couple of decent handicaps. He saved his best for his most recent outing when winning here in September. The handicapper has put him up 7lbs but he has the in-form Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and has avoided being drawn in the car park.

This race can be a real slog if conditions get really testing. The forecast is not that great for Thursday and Friday so we could see soft ground at the weekend. That would count against Peter Chapple-Hyam’s 40-1 Newmarket winner Farquhar who seems better on faster ground.

One piece of form that grabs my attention here is the victory of Latenightrequest at Haydock in September. Because Richard Fahey’s horse has gone on to win again here since, he faces a very stiff task at the weights with those that he beat at Haydock.

Alan Swinbank’s Dark Ruler is 15lbs better off for two lengths while runner-up Headline News and fourth-placed Kings Bayonet enjoy a similar weight pull. Headline News has since won at Newmarket while Dark Ruler won at Pontefract despite getting into traffic problems. The latter also has the advantage of having won on both of his previous visits here. If you fancy Dark Ruler it is impossible not to fancy Headline News too as he is 12lbs better off for a short-head.

Old Town Boy looked all out to win a competitive event at York last time and may be anchored by his 6lbs penalty. Rhombus was favourite for this a year ago and disappointed and never looked likely to stay the Cesarewitch distance. Communicator is having his third crack at this prize having finished runner-up in 2012 and fifth last year. He will probably run well again but is drawn 22.

Mount Logan @10-1 William Hill

Dark Ruler @22-1 Betfair

Headline News @16-1 Totesport

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Newmarket Thursday Preview

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The Newmarket July meeting always provides the first real test of the Royal Ascot form and that is very much the theme on Thursday.

I have previewed the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes separately and expect Arab Spring to continue his progression. The card opens at 1.40 with the Bahrain Trophy which, if the current trend continues, they will be renaming the John Gosden Bahrain Trophy.

Mr G has won the last three runnings and has opted to run impressive Doncaster winner Forever Now in preference to Epsom third Romsdal. The Epsom form is starting to get that sinking feeling already with only Australia’s win in the egg and spoon version of the Irish Derby so far. No doubt there will be better tests to come but I am not jumping on the hype wagon just yet.

Forever Now should go close but I am worried about Hartnell who battled on well to win the Queen’s Vase at Ascot. I am utterly useless at predicting how the Mark Johnston horses will run but you’d think this one would be in the first two.

The juvenile form gets a test in the July Stakes with Jungle Cat, The Great War and Mind Of Madness among those coming on from the Royal meeting. I am going to bypass all of them in favour of the once-raced Belardo. Roger Varian seems to have his team ticking over nicely and this looked a very nice horse in the making when easily winning at Yarmouth. Hopefully he can cope with these more battle-hardened types.

Another yard that is sweeping into form is that of Luca Cumani. He has had four winners in the last four days and has taken the trouble to enter Mount Logan in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. If he’s that good, he should be able to win the mile and a quarter handicap off a mark of 95. He seemed to win with plenty in hand at Sandown.

The one that worries me here is the William Haggas colt Mange All. He beat nothing last time at Beverley but was a promising third in a hot Newbury maiden before that. He is available at an each-way price so we can cover ourselves with a small wager.

Forever Now 1.40 Newmarket at 4-1 William Hill

Belardo 2.10 Newmarket at 13-2 Paddy Power

Arab Spring 2.40 Newmarket at 7-4 William Hill

Mount Logan 3.15 Newmarket at 3-1 Paddy Power

Mange All (each-way) at 7-1 Paddy Power

Yarmouth 19th September Preview

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I was considering previewing the opening day of the Western meeting at Ayr but a quick glance at the card suggests winners are going to be hard to come by. There are no less than six fiendishly difficult handicaps on Thursday’s card and that may be the pattern for the rest of the week. There are no less than 200 horses left in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday, admittedly many of them hoping to get into the Silver or Bronze Cup.

The race that interests me is the two-year-old maiden at 2.50 at Yarmouth. Luca Cumani is not exactly well-known for his precocious youngsters and Mount Logan is certainly not that. He has had just one outing to date, finishing fourth in the maiden at Newbury won by John Gosden’s Muwaary. The form of the race has not exactly churned out winner after winner but Tuesday’s winner Ghaawy was well behind him that day.

He was ridden by Kirsty Milczarek and sent off at 25-1, suggesting that not a lot was expected of him on his debut. The chestnut settled nicely in rear and made eye-catching late progress to snatch fourth on the line. That race was over seven furlongs and there’s every reason to believe that the mile at Yarmouth will bring about further improvement.

The twin dangers carry the all blue of Godolphin. Istikshaf also showed promise on his debut when staying on into fifth place at Newmarket. That race was won by 33-1 shot Learaig and the form is no more inspiring than the Newbury race. I just prefer the effort of the Cumani horse who should also benefit from the stronger handling of Ryan Moore.

The unknown quantity is Charlie Appleby’s Deadly Approach for whom Kieren Fallon has been booked. As his name suggests, he is by New Approach but I note that he is fitted with a hood for his taste of racecourse action. I cannot say that I have noticed that very often with any two-year-olds, let alone Godolphin. Grand Meister and Latin Charm are also unraced but come from stables not particularly noted for first-time-out winners.

Mount Logan