Tag: Luca Cumani

Goodwood Tuesday Preview

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We arrive at Goodwood on something of a winning streak with our last six tips having won! Muhtarram also did us proud with our each-way bet in the King George so we have a few pennies to invest at the Sussex course this week.

If Tuesday’s card is anything to go by, this could be a difficult week for punters. The opening mile and a quarter handicap seems to have just about every in-form stable represented. Following Sir Michael Stoute’s horses has been very profitable in recent weeks and Stomachion must have a good chance of continuing that trend.

He was held up on the rail at Epsom and made good late headway to finish second. Like many of tomorrow’s fancied runners, he is dropping back to a mile and a half. I think he looks rock solid each-way material.

Magic Hurricane’s form looks red hot after the Ascot victories of Pallasator and Forgotten Hero. I just wonder if this is going to prove a sufficient stamina test for either and am tempted to take a chance on Luca Cumani’s Ajman Bridge. The Cumani team is also flying at present and 10-1 looks a good each-way bet in a tough opener.

It looks impossible to get away from the claims of Beacon in the Molecomb Stakes. He dismissed Mark Johnston’s Mukhmal with consummate ease at Sandown and should be suited by bowling down the hill at Goodwood.

There seems to be plenty of confidence behind Toormore in the featured Lennox Stakes at 3.05. He was a bit of a flop in the Guineas and in the St James’s Palace and I’m not entirely convinced that seven furlongs will see him in a better light. Gregorian has been a good friend to this column over the years and I cannot discard him after his terrific run in the July Stakes. All credit for John Gosden for even entering him in the race but I feel he is really closer to a miler.

Having gone for the Cumani horse in the opener, I cannot ignore Havana Cooler in the 3.40. He and Dashing Star have met several times and there is very little between them. He seems to take an age to find his stride so I’m hoping Adam Kirby drives him into contention at the top of the straight.

Ajman Bridge 1.55 Goodwood (each-way) @10-1 Bet365

Stomachion 1.55 Goodwood (each-way) @6-1 Bet365

Beacon 2.30 Goodwood @10-11 BetVictor

Gregorian 3.05 Goodwood @7-2 Paddy Power

Havana Cooler 3.40 Goodwood @4-1 Bet365

Irish Oaks 2014 Preview

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The whole complexion of the race has changed in the Irish Oaks after the late defection of odds-on favourite Taghrooda. Trainer John Gosden will now aim the Epsom winner at the King George & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot.

Punters who backed the filly down to 1-2 favourite will feel aggrieved but the decision is that of owner Sheikh Hamdan rather than Gosden’s. He also owns second favourite Tarfasha who has assumed favouritism for Dermot Weld.

There was some question as to whether or not Tarfasha would stay the mile and a half at Epsom and I am not completely convinced after her second place effort. She looked as though she would run into a clear second but was all out to get the verdict over Volume in the final stages. To my mind, Luca Cumani’s filly looks the form horse.

She was kicked on very early by Richard Hughes and all seemed to be going well until she became unbalanced in the home straight. Hughes had voiced his concerns after riding the filly to victory at Newbury and Cumani arranged a special trial run for Volume prior to the Oaks. The much flatter track at the Curragh should suit the filly much better and she looks a solid bet to be in the frame.

Aidan O’Brien provides two of the likeliest dangers in Bracelet and Marvellous, although I am worried by the former. Bracelet wore a hood for the first time at Royal Ascot and held off the late flourish of Lustrous. She had run poorly in the 1000 Guineas and clearly appreciated the mile and a half.

Marvellous looks like a soft ground filly after grinding out an unlikely victory in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Ryan Moore was at her a long way out that day and it was a surprise to me that she started favourite at Epsom. She finished a never dangerous sixth and the going has gone against her this weekend.

It is difficult to see anything else getting into this and I am hoping that Kevin Manning elects to kick on early on Volume. She does not seem to possess much in the way of acceleration but seems to lack nothing in terms of stamina.

Volume 5.45 The Curragh @11-2 Bet365

Newmarket Thursday Preview

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The Newmarket July meeting always provides the first real test of the Royal Ascot form and that is very much the theme on Thursday.

I have previewed the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes separately and expect Arab Spring to continue his progression. The card opens at 1.40 with the Bahrain Trophy which, if the current trend continues, they will be renaming the John Gosden Bahrain Trophy.

Mr G has won the last three runnings and has opted to run impressive Doncaster winner Forever Now in preference to Epsom third Romsdal. The Epsom form is starting to get that sinking feeling already with only Australia’s win in the egg and spoon version of the Irish Derby so far. No doubt there will be better tests to come but I am not jumping on the hype wagon just yet.

Forever Now should go close but I am worried about Hartnell who battled on well to win the Queen’s Vase at Ascot. I am utterly useless at predicting how the Mark Johnston horses will run but you’d think this one would be in the first two.

The juvenile form gets a test in the July Stakes with Jungle Cat, The Great War and Mind Of Madness among those coming on from the Royal meeting. I am going to bypass all of them in favour of the once-raced Belardo. Roger Varian seems to have his team ticking over nicely and this looked a very nice horse in the making when easily winning at Yarmouth. Hopefully he can cope with these more battle-hardened types.

Another yard that is sweeping into form is that of Luca Cumani. He has had four winners in the last four days and has taken the trouble to enter Mount Logan in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. If he’s that good, he should be able to win the mile and a quarter handicap off a mark of 95. He seemed to win with plenty in hand at Sandown.

The one that worries me here is the William Haggas colt Mange All. He beat nothing last time at Beverley but was a promising third in a hot Newbury maiden before that. He is available at an each-way price so we can cover ourselves with a small wager.

Forever Now 1.40 Newmarket at 4-1 William Hill

Belardo 2.10 Newmarket at 13-2 Paddy Power

Arab Spring 2.40 Newmarket at 7-4 William Hill

Mount Logan 3.15 Newmarket at 3-1 Paddy Power

Mange All (each-way) at 7-1 Paddy Power

Sandown Thursday Preview

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Sir Michael Stoute’s stable has burst into form in the past couple of weeks and he launches an assault across Sandown and Goodwood on Thursday.

The pick of his Sandown runners is Provenance who bolted up at Kempton on his debut and is now tried in handicap company. He does not yet have any high profile entries but I would be surprised if he is not able to follow up off a mark of just 84. The form of his Kempton win may be moderate but he is not up against a very inspiring bunch on Thursday with several of them having flopped last time out.

Russian Heroine should not be hard pushed to take the opener for Stoute after a good debut run at Windsor behind Cajoling. Although no match for the winner, it looks the best form on show in this contest.

Stoute’s third runner of the night is Munaaser in the mile and a quarter handicap. He looked to have been given plenty to do last time but cut down the leader readily before surging five lengths clear. The one thing that worries me about him is his high knee action. The going is good to firm at the Esher track and that could just catch him out.

It is interesting that Ryan Moore partners Cricklewood Green who ran well for Richard Hannon last time. I am not convinced that he will be suited by the conditions either and I’m siding with Luca Cumani’s Roseburg.

He won stylishly at Pontefract over this distance and has much more of a daisy-cutting action suited to quicker ground. He looks a far more tempting proposition at the prices than the Stoute horse. I will also be keeping an eye on Gold Trail who showed plenty of promise as a juvenile but is yet to race this season.

Stoute’s fourth runner is Savant in the maiden race but there is a long odds-on favourite here in Mutakkayef. He took two bumps when beaten by a decent sort in Barley Mow at Newmarket and this looks a lot easier to win.

Russian Heroine 5.55 Sandown

Provenance 7.00 Sandown at 11-8 BetVictor

Roseburg 7.35 Sandown at 10-1 BetVictor

Yarmouth Tuesday Preview

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All three race meetings in the UK were abandoned on Monday after Sunday night’s storms left the tracks waterlogged. Hopefully normal service will be resumed at Yarmouth on Tuesday where the going is currently reported soft and there are some competitive fields.

Blinkers used to be regarded as “the rogue’s badge” but these days it is just another aid that is rarely even commented upon outside of classic races. They can certainly transform an animal and that has never been better illustrated than by the astonishing performance of Firecruise at Pontefract last time out.

After two moderate runs he was pitched into a nursery handicap and first time blinkers were applied. The field went off like scalded cats despite the heavy ground and Robert Winston was content to sit towards the rear on Firecruise until the wide turn into the home straight. At this point Winston made a concerted effort to take the inside and his mount responded by charging through to lead with over two furlongs to travel.

I am sure that Winston could hardly believe it when he looked round for dangers only to see daylight. A second look inside the final furlong confirmed that he had the race sewn up and he came home six lengths clear. He turns out under a 6lbs penalty tomorrow. The obvious concern is that the blinkers are not so effective second time but he won with so much in hand it is worth taking that risk.

My second selection also sports blinkers having done so in both of his recent victories. Saigon City looked a bit of an awkward ride when winning here in July but then defied a 3lbs hike in the weights when winning at Nottingham. The in-form Andrea Atzeni was aboard on that occasion and things did not exactly go to plan. He missed the break and was denied a clear run up the straight but still managed to get back up on the line.

Experience tells me that we shouldn’t take a lot of notice of horses seemingly bolting after the winning line but he took off as if chasing the last bus home! There are some decent sorts in opposition, notably the lightly-raced Martian who could certainly be a big threat. I’ll stick with Saigon City to win again despite another 5lbs weights rise and hope that Luca Cumani can work his magic yet again with an improving handicapper.

Firecruise 2.40 Yarmouth 5-2 Ladbrokes

Saigon City 3.40 Yarmouth 11-2 Coral

Leicester Tuesday Preview

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The main flat racing action on Tuesday comes from Leicester and the bet of the day could be Sir Michael Stoute’s Gothic in the maiden race at 5.10.

The son of Danehill Dancer is out of Riberac who was a typically tough Mark Johnston filly and I’m hopeful that he may have inherited some of her traits. He was clearly unfancied on his debut at Newmarket when sent off at 33-1 under Pat Dobbs.

After settling towards the rear, he made some progress at half-way before staying on at the one pace to finish sixth behind Mitraad. The form is hard to assess at this stage but he steps up to a mile for the first time on Tuesday and Ryan Moore is aboard. Most of Stoute’s youngsters have needed a run to put them straight this season so there could be significant improvement in him.

The dangers come from the unraced horses. Roger Charlton runs Hooded, an Empire Maker colt out of the smart Yashmak whilst Andrew Balding’s Opera Duke is also bred to be useful. Luca Cumani runs Seek A Star but the booking of Kirsty Milczarek suggests that the filly may need this first outing to sharpen her up.

Palace Dragon has had two runs but looks distinctly moderate but Mark Johnston’s Alex My Boy could certainly be a threat. He is by Dalakhani out of Oaks winner Alexandrova. Kieren Fallon is an eye-catching booking and this colt is the one that I am most wary of.

The Conditions race at 4.10 should go to Princess Loulou who won by nine lengths at Pontefract on her third start. The going was soft that day and the leaders went off at a suicidal pace, leaving Princess Loulou to come through and win at her leisure. Her three opponents look completely out of sorts but there is unlikely to be much value in the market.

Ryan Moore also has a sound chance in the opener on Balding’s Trading Profit who has been flying high in recent starts. He was unable to land a blow in the Mill Reef Stakes or the Redcar Two-year-old Trophy but should be more suited to this grade.

Gothic (5.10 Leicester)