Tag: Jeremy Noseda

Chelmsford Wednesday Preview

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The new flat turf season may have started on Saturday but the summer festivals seem a long way off with Britain being battered by storms this week. Flat racing fans have to content themselves with all-weather action for the time being but there is a good card at Chelmsford on Wednesday.

The feature race is the Totepool Handicap over a mile and three-quarters at 4.00 with five last-time-out winners in the field of seven. Lady Cecil saddles top weight Tacticus who has bolted up in two minor races at Southwell but the handicapper has punished him accordingly. He was never off the bridle to defy a 6lbs penalty last time but is now up a further 13lbs.

His rivals include the promising Wakea with Dubai World Cup winning rider William Buick in the saddle. The son of Cape Cross looks like a useful stayer in the making but Ryan Moore had to get after him to win on his seasonal debut. Jeremy Noseda has a high opinion of this one while Fergall made a belated start on the flat, winning by nine lengths at Lingfield. He has already won three times over hurdles so could be fairly treated on a mark of 87. I am reluctant to oppose a horse in such good form as Tacticus so he just gets the vote.

The action gets under way at 2.0 with a maiden race over a mile and a quarter. Marco Botti’s Giantouch has the best form in the book and looks sure to improve for this step up in trip but I like the filly Nawaasy. She raced very wide on her debut and was still beaten only a length at the finish. If she has made natural progress through the winter for Charles Hills, a race like this could be an ideal starting point.

Luke Morris can win the sprint at 3.00 on top weight Middle East Pearl for James Tate. He tried to cover her up in behind at Kempton last time when third to Zebs Lad, a fair effort on her first start since December. The danger may be the former Sir Mark Prescott-trained Vejovis. He has won over seven furlongs but is dropping back to the minimum trip after nearly making all over six last time.

Tate and Morris can complete a double on the card with Kempton winner Clampdown in the last race at 5.00. He carries a 6lbs penalty but this looks a much easier contest with the main threat likely to come from Three Gracez.

Nawaasy 2.00 @7-4 Bet365

Middle East Pearl 2.00 @2-1 SkyBet

Tacticus 4.00 @7-2 William Hill

Clampdown 5.00 @13-8 Betfair

Lingfield Winter Derby Trial day preview

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It is Winter Derby Trial day at Lingfield on Saturday with a fine supporting card. The action starts at 1.15 with eight races including the valuable Ladbrokes Handicap and the Listed Cleves Stakes.

Ryan Moore is in attendance, mainly to ride Grandeur in the big race but he is also certain to have his supporters on Nigel’s Destiny in the opening race at 1.15. The lightly-raced four-year-old will be having only the seventh race of his career and could be one to follow this season. He is up against some in-form opponents here including Presumido and Until Midnight. They won last time out at Kempton and Chelmsford respectively but I am going to go for Franco’s Secret.

Peter Hedger’s gelding has improved steadily in recent months and showed an electric turn of foot to win here last time. Charles Bishop has ridden him in each of his starts to date and will be planning to arrive fast and late again here.

I am a big fan of Andrew Balding’s Intransigent who went from strength to strength last season. He seems equally effective at six and seven furlongs and starts his new campaign in the Listed race at 1.45. My only concern is that he seems a better horse in the autumn and winter and may not quite be at his peak at present. Foxtrot Romeo was runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas in 2012 and recorded his first win since at Wolverhampton in November. Marco Botti may have finally unlocked the key to the son of Danehill Dancer and he just gets the vote.

The Ladbrokes Handicap looks like a minefield for punters with various lines of form. The key to the race could be the form of Shyron’s recent victory when he beat Grey Mirage, Brave Echo, Brigliadoro, Related and Firmdecisions here. Having watched the re-run several times, I see no real reason to think that the placings should be any different here. I would expect Related to finish closer but Shyron can confirm the form.

Godolphin are mopping up the maiden races on the all-weather tracks and Chorus Of Lies could be another winner for them at 2.50. He showed plenty of potential on turf last winter and has only Balding’s Opera Lad to fear, a promising third on his racecourse debut.

In the Winter Derby Trial, I am reluctant to oppose Grandeur who has done us a few good turns in the past. He won this race last season but was beaten by the draw in the Winter Derby. He faces some useful opponents including course specialist Maverick Wave and the promising Cloudscape. The latter could be one to follow this season but I am siding with another Botti runner in Grendisar. He does not always find as much off the bridle as appears likely but he is ultra-consistent and could just take this if Grandeur is a little rusty.

Franco’s Secret 1.15 Lingfield @4-1 Betfair

Foxtrot Romeo 1.45 Lingfield @6-1 Bet365

Shyron 2.15 Lingfield @7-2 William Hill

Chorus Of Lies 2.50 Lingfield @11-4 Bet365

Grendisar 3.25 Lingfield @5-1 Betfair

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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After a hectic weekend of top quality racing we are back to the bread and butter at Nottingham on Wednesday. As good as it was to see Treve go into the history books with her back-to-back Arc success, I have to say that I was less than impressed with the Japanese riders. You would have thought that they would know how to ride the race after many years of trying but they gave their mounts no chance by holding them up way out the back.

The more humble offerings at Nottingham get under way at 2.20 with a maiden race which should go the way of Luca Cumani and Andrea Atzeni. Spiriting ran a good race on his second start when second at Yarmouth behind Bartel. Firmament finished a fair way back in fourth that day and ran a good race on Monday to finish second to the useful Master Apprentice. A repeat of that form would make Spiriting very hard to beat here.

The second race is a very competitive nursery but there is no stopping David O’Meara at the moment. His Group 1 win in the Prix de L’Abbaye on Sunday with Move In Time was the icing on the cake for a memorable season. He runs Snow Cloud who showed enormous improvement after a lengthy absence to beat Compton River at Redcar. The jockey never had to resort to the whip that day so there should be plenty more to come. The main danger could be the top weight Ivors Rebel who has been keeping much better company.

The best bet on the card could be the progressive Black Granite in the nine furlong nursery at 4.25. Jeremy Noseda’s gelding looked very moderate earlier in the season but the application of a visor has transformed him. A game victory at Salisbury was followed by an emphatic success at Newmarket. Normally I would hesitate at a 9lbs rise in the weights but there aren’t that many two-year-olds that stay beyond a mile and he is certainly one of them.

The final three races look virtually impossible but I am going to have a small interest in Golden Spear in the 4.25. He is yet to race beyond a mile but his last couple of runs suggest that he is crying out for it. The danger is probably Tercel who is on a very fair mark for Sir Michael Stoute and looked set to win at Newbury last time. He didn’t look the easiest of rides that day and Ryan Moore will probably be looking to deliver him with a late rattle.

Spiriting 2.20 @Bet365

Snow Cloud 2.50 @5-1 Bet365

Black Granite 4.25 @11-4 Bet365

Golden Spear 5.25 @11-1 Coral

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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Air Pilot (9-2) gave us a profit on Saturday although we were out of luck in the Ayr Gold Cup with Blaine finishing only third. Air Pilot is now favourite for Saturday’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and we shall be previewing that race later in the week.

Goodwood holds an interesting midweek card on Wednesday with our old friend Grandeur returning to one of his happy hunting grounds. Jeremy Noseda’s grey won this race a year ago and has been busy clocking up the air miles since.

He has been running consistently in Grade 1 races in America and was unlucky not to come back with at least one victory. Noseda blamed Gary Stevens for an ill-judged ride when fourth in the Manhattan Stakes and Grandeur received a hefty bump last time when beaten in a photo in the Bowling Green Handicap.

If he is anything like that kind of form on Wednesday, he should beat Danadana on level weights. There must be a slight concern about fitness after a 74-day absence but he has only been defeated once in four races at the Sussex course and is difficult to oppose.

Dissolution gets an opportunity to restore his reputation after being beaten favourite in his last two starts for Sir Michael Stoute. He ran a race full of promise at Newbury on his debut but has since been beaten at York and Haydock. James Doyle had to give him a smack after only a furlong last time and a visor is being tried on Wednesday. He ran on strongly but could not catch Lord Ben Stack. The winner could turn out to be useful and the third was left trailing by five lengths so Dissolution gets one more chance.

One horse that has already been transformed by the headgear is Ganymede. Eve Johnson Houghton applied the blinkers at Kempton where he ran out a most impressive winner before following up at Salisbury. He had previously raced too keenly over longer trips but seems to be settling much better in the blinkers. A 7lbs hike in the weights was inevitable after a couple of facile victories but I’m sure he can go well here for Jim Crowley. The big field should not be a concern as the likes of Belle Bayardo can give him a nice lead into the race. The veteran Parisian Pyramid is the danger after his good effort at Epsom last time.

Dissolution 2.40 @Bet365

Grandeur 3.50 @11-10 Paddy Power

Ganymede 4.55 @6-1 Bet365

Sandown Wednesday Preview

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The weekend racing was top class on all fronts with the St Leger at Doncaster, the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown and the Arc trials in France. George Baker falling out of the side door with the race at his mercy on Cotai Glory pretty much summed up my Doncaster meeting but it is back to the daily bread and butter stuff this week.

The exception is the clash of two potentially top-class two-year-olds at Sandown on Wednesday. Latharnach and Time Test are set to meet over seven furlongs and both colts hold entries for the top two-year-old events later in the year.

Godolphin are yet to find a genuine colt this season and they are still chasing a first Group 1 victory in Europe. Latharnach made his debut in a maiden race at Newmarket that has proved to be a goldmine for punters. Incredibly, nine of the eleven runners have won since including Basateen, Best Of Times and Typhoon Season.

Last season I highlighted the maiden race won by Taghrooda which produced a high percentage of winners but that has been surpassed by the Newmarket race. Ironically, it was won by Lexington Times who has proved to be a very ordinary juvenile. Latharnach duly obliged next time out here and the form has been boosted by Elm Park who finished third.

Time Test made his debut at Newbury and looked set to win easily until weakening in the closing stages behind Stec. Whether it was fitness or inexperience I am not sure but he made no mistake next time out, beating Sweet Dreams comfortably over course and distance. I am siding with Time Test here but both colts should have a future.

My second tip on the card is for Shama’s Crown in the 4.45. Jeremy Noseda’s filly looks very nicely weighted on a line through Pleasant Valley. Shama’s Crown gave that filly a real fright on her debut and she has gone on to win easily off a mark of 78. She is now up to 87 and contests a Listed race at Yarmouth on Wednesday. That surely leaves Shama’s Crown with a great chance off a mark of 80.

Ryan Moore rode her to a comfortable success over a mile last time out at Windsor but she steps back up to a mile and a quarter here.

Time Test 3.05 Sandown Wednesday @5-6 Betfair

Shama’s Crown 4.45 Sandown Wednesday @13-8 Bet365

Winter Derby 2014 Preview

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Jeremy Noseda’s Grandeur has already done us a few good turns including when winning the Winter Derby Trial recently. He looked a class above his rivals that day and the race will have brought him to his peak nicely for Saturday.

The £100,000 Winter has attracted a good class field but Grandeur still comes out on top on official figures. Surprisingly, he is yet to win above Listed class in Britain although he has won twice at Grade 2 level in America. He was runner-up to Mukhadram at York in July and also picked up a decent race at Goodwood in good style. His main target was the Arlington Million but he faced an impossible task from a wide draw that day and finished only seventh.

He had over a stone in hand on official ratings here last time but credit to Modernstone for getting fairly close in the closing stages. Ryan Moore gets on well with Grandeur and is already booked for Saturday. It looks like being a maximum field so hopefully he can avoid a wide draw.

The classiest performer in the opposition is 2011 Dewhurst Stakes winner Parish Hall. His last race was in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October when ninth to Farhh. That was possibly flying a bit high and he would be a threat if he’s fit enough.

The former Mark Johnston-trained Windhoek won a handicap on his first start for Godolphin in January. He was a useful three-year-old last season, competing in several classic trials. His best chance is probably to be up with the pace as he seemed to lack a real turn of foot.

It will be interesting to see how Rebellious Guest gets on in this company. He did us a favour here a few weeks ago and I was kicking myself for deserting him at Kempton last time where he set a new track record. That was his first attempt at a mile and a quarter so there could be further improvement in him.

Graphic was progressive for William Haggas last season and I have plenty of respect for him too. He could develop into a group performer this season. It’s certainly shaping up to be a very good renewal of a race that hasn’t quite captured the imagination in recent years.

Grandeur at 6-4 Bet365