Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Chase Action Heads To Aintree Over Grand National Course

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Becher Chase and Tingle Creek Chase highlight a huge afternoon of jumps action in the UK but it’s the early season return to Aintree that will be attracting the most attention. First run in 1992, this meeting became the second to be run at the Merseyside venue each year and quickly became an early season trial for the Randox Health Grand National.

The Betfred Becher Chase is open to horses five years and older and is run over the same 21 fences as the Grand National. Two winners have gone on to win the ultimate prize; Amberleigh House and Silver Birch. Earth Summit won the Becher Chase in 1998 following his Grand National win the prior April. The race is named in honour of Martin Becher (1797-1864), a former soldier and jockey after who’s name is also attached to the Becher’s Brook obstacle.

Experience a key

Recent history shows that experience counts in this early-season chase with only one winner in the last decade aged younger than nine, and only two seven-year-olds victorious in the race’s 24-year history. Nine winners had been placed or won over three miles or beyond while all horses on the honour roll had been successful in a race of 13 runners or more.

Notably, only one favourite has ever triumphed with the bulk of winners in the 15/2 out to 25/1 price range. One that ticks more boxes than most is the defending champion Highland Lodge (20/1 with Betfred). He had a level of fitness last year, whereas this time he has had a steady preparation and has been aimed at this race.

Hot hand for Mullins

Sandown hosts its first Grade 1 race of the Jumps season in the shape of the two-mile Tingle Creek Chase – one of the most fiercely contested events in the winter calendar. The race attracts the elite two-mile chasers and has developed in recent years into a prestigious event in its own right, as well as a major stepping stone towards the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

It’s been a bizarre lead-up with bookies smashing Willie Mullins’ Douvan despite the fact that he was always unlikely to run. Stablemate Un De Sceaux (which looks very hard to beat) is now the favourite at a top price of 15-8 on Paddy Power, while Ar Mad, the winner of the Henry VIII Novice Chase over the same course and distance 12 months ago, is a 10-3 chance.

Awardee eyes lucky seventh

Kitasan Black’s spectacular wire-to-wire victory in last week’s Japan Cup at Tokyo is still the talk of the nation as the racing spotlight shifts to Nagoya’s Chukyo Racecourse for the Champions Cup. It is one of only two JRA Grade 1 races held at Chukyo and one of only two JRA Grade 1s run on dirt (over 1800m on this left-handed track). Even-money hope Awardee looks super tough to beat. The winner of the JBC Classic at Kawasaki is looking to make it seven in a row. Winner of 10 of 23, the American-bred Awardee beat dual winner of the Champions Cup, Hokko Tarumae, by 0.75L in that race on November 3. His winning streak has been all on dirt following a move from turf and over distances from 1800 to 2100 metres.

Group 1 WFA Race A Fitting Tribute For The King

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

When the Australian Racing Hall of Fame was created in 2001, just five horses were among the inaugural inductees and only one from the past half-century – Kingston Town. The black gelding ruled Australian racetracks in the early 1980s and became the first local thoroughbred to win AUD $1 million in prizemoney. ‘The King’ was far more comfortable on Sydney tracks, where he won 22 of 25 including 21 in a row, but still managed to win the W.S. Cox Plate on an unprecedented three occasions (1980-82). Trained by Tommy Smith and ridden in most of those starts by Malcolm Johnson, Kingston Town’s last Group 1 victory came in the 1982 Western Mail Classic at Ascot in Perth.

In 2007, local officials renamed the race in honour of the superstar. Appropriately, it is run under the conditions at which Kingston Town celebrated most of his marquee victories – weight for age – over a distance of 1800 metres.

Railway form must be respected

The race itself dates back to 1976 and has been run under several different names from the Marlboro 50,000 to the Fruit ‘N’ Veg Stakes. Similarly to the G1 races that have been raced under the TABtouch Masters banner over the past fortnight at Ascot, a smattering of eastern states horses will be taking on a strong local contingent for a share of the AUD $1 million in stakes.

Of the 16 runners, 11 ran in the Railway Stakes here two weeks ago. Three of the past winners of the Kingston Town Classic have come through that opening Group 1 of the Perth carnival. Only one of the past five winners has been backing up after running the previous week.

Despite the short history of this race, its honour roll is littered with multiple winners including Playing God (2010-11), Niconero (2006, 2008), Old Comrade (2000-01), Summer Beau (1996-97) and Family Of Man (1976, 1978).

Perth mare eyes back-to-back

Last year’s Kingston Town Classic winner Perfect Reflection is aiming to join that list and punters expect her to be prominent once again as the $4 favourite with William Hill. She has drawn barrier two in her attempt to turn the tables on Scales Of Justice and Good Project in Australia’s final Group One race of the calendar year.

The mare finished third behind that duo in the Group 1 Railway Stakes where Scales Of Justice led all the way. He faces a tougher task from the outside draw of 16 but has still attracted plenty of money as the clear second pick ($5.50 with William Hill), which he shares with Kiwi gelding Kawi. The Ascot track continues to favour runners on the speed, so expect Scales Of Justice to be prominent again, but Hong Kong-based jockey Douglas Whyte will need to spend plenty of fuel to have the 4yo gelding prominent.

Kiwi contender the one to beat

It was somewhat of a surprise to find Perfect Reflection at the top of the market, as Kawi is the runner with the strongest prospects heading into this race. Having been lumbered with 58.5kg in the Railway, the 6yo gelding now meets most of his rivals up to 5kg better under weight-for-age conditions. He was only beaten by 4.3 lengths last time out after being held up in the straight, so the step up to 1800m looks nicely timed in his third start in Western Australia. And this is a class animal, with five Group 1 wins among his record of 28:13-6-2.

For some value, Darren Weir’s Stratum Star looks overs at $12 on William Hill. He’s had a couple of trials locally to freshen up after the Melbourne spring and looked near his best in his previous outing (second) in the G3 Sandown Stakes on November 12.

TABtouch Masters Is All About the Wild West

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

After a terrific end to Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival at Sandown last Saturday, the spotlight shifts a lazy 3500 kilometres west to Perth in Western Australia for a trio of black-type meetings at Ascot, one of the city’s two courses. The Perth carnival has been repackaged as the TABtouch Masters, the world’s first single-track festival featuring a Group 1 race worth at least $1,000,000 on three successive Saturdays. It all kicks-off this weekend with the AUD $1 million Group 1 James Boag’s Premium Railway Stakes, run under traditional handicap conditions over 1600m.

The heat is on

Unlike last week’s card at Sandown, punters need to be wary of the different starting positions on this picturesque circuit, which sits on the banks of the Swan River. Ascot features just three turns, two of which are particularly sharp. There’s only a run of about 300m to the first corner from the 1600m chute start but history shows that hasn’t been an impediment in the Railway with the past four winners coming from either barrier 11 or 12. Track conditions are rarely an issue at this time of the year in Perth – the maximum daily temperature rarely dips below 30°C so firm conditions are the norm.

A proud history

The Railway Stakes dates back almost as long as many of the major races run on the eastern seaboard, with Nimrod winning the first edition back in 1887. It was a mainstay of the New Year’s Day racing program until the Western Australian Turf Club shifted major carnival races to late November. Just four horses have won both the Railway mile and the WFA Kingston Town Classic (1800m) traditionally run two weeks later – Better Loosen Up (1989), Old Comrade (2001), Modem (2004) and Sniper’s Bullet (2009). Northerly won the Railway in 2000 while hometown favourite Luckygray uniquely saluted in 2011 and 2013.

Raiders take on locals

One of the unique features of this carnival is the battle of east and west as a handful of trainers from Sydney and Melbourne chase the late spring riches on offer. There are five engaged in this year’s Railway – Chris Waller duo Mackintosh ($6.50 with William Hill) and Good Project ($14 with William Hill), Darren Weir’s Rageese ($8.00 with William Hill), He Or She from the Hayes/Dabernig camp ($16.00 with William Hill) and highly rated NZ gelding Kawi ($19.00 with William Hill). Local hope Perfect Reflection is the $5.00 favourite for the big Bob Peters team, trainers Grant and Alana Williams and champion WA hoop William Pike (54.5kg) from gate 2.

Back the Mack

It’s possible to make a case for about half of the 16 runners, but we’ve settled on the Group 1 form of Waller’s Mackintosh. Barrier 16 is far from ideal, but he has former Perth boy Damien Oliver aboard and carries just 54kg. The 4yo gelding was third in a blanket finish in the G1 Epsom (1600m) and Randwick before being nabbed late in the G1 Cantala (1600m) at Flemington on Derby Day, finishing 1.4L back in fifth. He’s won six of 11 career starts, including five of nine on good surfaces. A fair proportion of this field are unproven over the mile, but there’s no doubt this bloke will still be strong at the line.

Much to like about Pike

An other highlight of the day is the AUD $500,000 Group 1 Sky Racing WA Guineas (1600m) for the three-year-olds. It’s an equally open affair, Ellicazoom, one of three fillies engaged, rated a $4.80 favourite with Ladbrokes. However, another five runners are rated better than $10 chances. One of those is Get Over It ($8.00 on Ladbrokes), trained on this track by Trevor Andrews and ridden here by Pike after the suspension of Paul Harvey. In contrast to the bulk of these, he looks ready for the step to 1600m and finished fourth in the traditional lead-up, the Fairetha Stakes here two ago after being held up in the straight.

Melbourne Cup To Remain On Home Soil

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The “race that stops a nation” might sound clichéd, but it’s pretty close to the mark. At 3pm AEDT tomorrow (Tuesday), Australians across the expanse of the continent will stop work and either watch or listen to the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup from Flemington in Melbourne. Even the most blasé will be quietly cheering on their Melbourne Cup betting pick from the office sweep, or the horse with a quirky name or wearing their favourite colours.

For those hoping to combine the day with the real thing, there are a staggering 42 TAB or picnic meetings scheduled – from Ascot to Alice Springs, Mount Isa to Morphettville and everywhere in between. Racing is big business in Sydney, but Royal Randwick’s biggest crowd of the year is Melbourne Cup Day. Meanwhile, the Flemington Lawn on the first Tuesday in November is one of the few places that you are likely to witness someone dressed as a horse watching the horses go by – it’s a day where anything goes trackside.
A Melbourne Cup deserves Melbourne weather

An iconic Melbourne day deserves some of the city’s unpredictable weather, with the forecast for a cool and clear morning giving way to afternoon showers with winds up to 20km/h. The latter is a major factor at Flemington – the wind sweeps up along the Maribyrnong River from nearby Port Phillip Bay. Astute jockeys know where it’s important to find cover from the wind, which was a huge factor here on Turnbull Stakes day.

There’s only been minimal rainfall since Derby Day so the track should again fall into the good (4) range and there’s unlikely to be an upgrade if it stays cool. The track raced very evenly on Saturday, so it isn’t terribly relevant that the rail remains in the true position. It also remains a day where it’s bloody tough to find a winner – the smallest fields contain 14 runners with the bulk closer to capacity.

Massive public money a boon for punters

The Melbourne Cup is unlike any other race of the year for serious punters. Public money floods into the betting pools like no other day, and the bookies are more than happy to let them get on. The favourites are almost always under the odds (as is the case with the top two, Hartnell and Jameka, this year) but there’s a stack of value on the rest of the genuine contenders.

The blanket media coverage and myriad expert opinions make it tough to stay objective, and as Prince Of Penzance showed in 2015, history can count for nothing depending on the circumstances of the day. But it would surprise if the winner did not emerge from this quartet – #9 Almoonqith ($31 with William Hill), #11 Grand Marshal ($34), #12 Jameka ($7.50) and #17 Almandin ($11). The Caulfield Cup winner Jameka just might turn out be in the class of Makybe Diva but can’t be seriously entertained at such a short quote.

Waller to end his Cup drought

Instead, Grand Marshal looks the bulletproof pick. Trainer Chris Waller presides over the dominant stable in the country, but the nation’s biggest prize has so far eluded him. He left Flemington gutted after Preferment fell short last year, but was buoyant after his Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) quinella of Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. His seven-year-old gelding also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) over the stablemate in the autumn, and he’s had a generously spaced prep heading into his grand final. Notably, Grand Marshal missed his planned lead-up run in the Geelong Cup due to administrative oversight, which will make a nice headline for the local sub-editors should he pinch the ultimate prize in Australian racing. Good luck punters!

It’s Top Hat and Tails for Victoria Derby Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

AAMI Victoria Derby was once hailed as the greatest day of racing on the Australian turf calendar but like any major sporting event, it doesn’t hurt to tweak with the product to keep it fresh and relevant. Sydney stole the march on the Victoria Racing Club when it created its new autumn showpiece, The Championships, but credit to the VRC for a timely reboot of Derby Day. It’s still Group racing from top to bottom but bolstered by the addition of the AUD $1 million Cantala (formerly Emirates) Stakes over a mile.

That makes it four Groups 1s for the day – along with the $1.5 million AAMI Victoria Derby, there’s the Coolmore Stud Stakes for the three-year-old sprinters and the weight-for-age Myer Stakes for the fillies and mares. The forecast looks perfect too, with fine and mild conditions, a track rated a good (4) and the rail in the true position.

Vase form again looks priceless

The Victoria Derby pre-dates the Melbourne Cup by six years making it one of the oldest races in the world. The Derby is always a tricky affair to cap. The 2500m is a distance over which the bulk of the field haven’t been previously tested. It’s also a race where the jockey factor is way higher than normal. The successful hoop not only has to nurse his or her charge through an arduous staying test, but other runners slipping off the pace on the long Flemington straight fall back at an alarming rate.

Given the short run to the first turn, inside barriers have a significant advantage. The top rated Sacred Elixir ($3.10 favourite with William Hill) endured an ugly ride from Damian Lane in the G2 Vase (2040m) last week at Moonee Valley but still won with half-a-length to spare and again looks hard to toss.

Look to the lightweights in G1 mile

While there are only a handful of legitimate contenders in the Derby, the former Emirates (now Cantala) Stakes is a lottery for the country’s best milers at handicap conditions chasing a first prize of AUD $1 million. Nine years ago, Nikita Beriman became the first female jockey to win a Group 1 race in Victoria when she took out the 2007 edition on $101 chance Tears I Cry. Indeed, outsiders have fared well in this race, with 11 winners at $15 or over.

This race is normally a benefit for backmarkers, but Flemington tends to favour on-speed runners early in Cup week. The United States ($6 with Ladbrokes) makes a logical favourite based on his win in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last week, but closely consider the chances of Seaburge. He flashed home to just miss out in the Caulfield Guineas and carries just 50.5kg from barrier 2 here.

3yo sprint among Cup week highlights

If it runs up to expectation, the Coolmore Stud Stakes could be the race of the week. A very impressive class of two-year-olds are showing every sign that they’ll carry their form into their three-year-old season. Only two of the 10 runners have experienced the Flemington ‘Straight Six’ prior, with Saracino and Archives filling the quinella in the G2 Danehill on September 10. But the quality of the rest can’t be dismissed, highlighted by Golden Slipper winner Capitalist and Blue Diamond victor Extreme Choice (the $3 favourite with William Hill).

The real eye-catcher is Star Turn, a $4.40 hope for Team Hawkes from barrier 4. The Star Witness colt rated off the charts in his G3 San Domenico (Rosehill) and G2 Schillaci (Caulfield) victories and should have beaten Astern in the G2 Runto Rose in between those wins. He profiles very nicely for the ultimate sprint test in Australian thoroughbred racing.

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!