Tag: Dawn Approach

Prix Jacques Le Marois Preview

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These days there is a tendency to hype up every half-decent race in the hope of recreating the glory days of Frankel and Black Caviar. For once, this weekend’s Prix Jacques Le Marois is worthy of the build up as Dawn Approach clashes with Intello and Midnight Cloud.

It would have been nice if Toronado had made the line up but Richard Hannon relies on Olympic Glory, a failure in the French Guineas. It is refreshing to see Jim Bolger happy to turn out Dawn Approach so soon after his gallant effort in the Sussex Stakes but I will take my hat off to him if he can beat the two French horses here.

Intello rather unusually began his campaign by bolting up at Newmarket. That was a highly unusual prep race for the French Guineas and he was desperately unlucky not to win that, flashing home all too late in fourth. He confirmed the promise of that run by romping away with the French Derby.

I must admit that I felt it was a travesty to change the distance of the French Derby and it is no longer worthy of the name, but that’s another matter! As it is now more of a mile and a quarter contest there is no reason to fear that the race will have blunted Intello’s speed. He has been out since and won easily over a mile and he is built like a bull.

Midnight Cloud sat on the tail of Lethal Force last weekend and picked him up easily over seven furlongs. We know how good she is from her narrow defeat against Black Caviar last season. It will be intriguing to see whether she is quite as good at a mile but that extra furlong just tips the scales in favour of Intello.

Elusive Kate proved that her victory over Sky Lantern was no fluke when comfortably winning another Group One in France. She is a tough filly to pass but she will do well to match Dawn Approach and Intello here.

My old friend Aljamaaheer is priced up at 16-1 having been taken out of the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood due to the soft ground. The current ground is described as good in France so it could go either way by Sunday. Having backed Aljamaaheer for his last half a dozen outings it is difficult to leave him out but the ground is crucial to him.

Aidan O’Brien may run Declaration Of War again here but he has had a couple of hard races in quick succession and I’d be surprised if he could improve enough to trouble these. It all points to Intello establishing himself as Europe’s top three-year-old colt on Sunday.

Intello 2-1 Coral

St James’s Palace Stakes Preview

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The news that Dawn Approach will, after all, be running in the St James’s Palace Stakes has created quite a stir. Those of you with long memories may recall a similar “will he, won’t he” scenario with Jim Bolger’s New Approach ahead of the Derby in 2008. He was suddenly brought back into the equation with some punters having invested at huge prices on Betfair.

The news that the 2000 Guineas winner will line up on Tuesday has certainly helped to raise the excitement ahead of the meeting. Coral quickly announced that they will be treating all bets previously struck as being “without Dawn Approach”. That was very smart thinking and shows how much more “punter friendly” the bookies are these days. It certainly has not always been the case so full credit to them for acting so quickly.

So what are we to make of Dawn Approach after his Derby antics? It appears that the possibility of him attempting to bolt during the race had not even occurred to his connections, such was their confidence in his ability to settle. Kevin Manning certainly wasn’t expecting it and had already decided that he would need to “get after” Dawn Approach quite early in the Guineas to get him into top gear. Was it simply a case of a miler running in a mile and a half race? I have seen plenty of Guineas horses run in the Derby but cannot remember any of them running as freely as that.

Magician was expected to head for Epsom after winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but Aidan O’Brien dropped him back to a mile for the Irish Guineas instead. The decision was rewarded in spectacular fashion and he looks the obvious choice. O’Brien still has three other entries in the race whilst Bolger has Leitir Mor entered as a possible pacemaker. A crawl would not suit either of the market leaders to it seems safe to assume that there will be a decent pace on.

Toronado was thought to be Dawn Approach’s biggest rival at Newmarket and it looked like being a clash between the two with a furlong or so to run. However, Richard Hannon’s colt dropped out very tamely and was treading water at the line. Connections are adamant that he is a lot better than that and he will presumably be tucked in behind the pace.

The French raiders Mutin and Mshawish don’t look up to top standard and Dundonnell has had his limitations exposed in the past. The verdict has to be to stick with Magician until he is beaten. There are just too many question marks over Dawn Approach.

Magician 2-1 Boylesports

Epsom Derby day Preview June 1st

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We will finally get to find out whether or not Dawn Approach stays a mile and a half today. I’ve read many well-informed articles on the subject and the majority view among pedigree analysts is that he won’t. I have supported Ocovango (9-1) and Chopin (12-1) in the ante-post market and was hopeful that the ground would remain on the soft side. However, it looks as though it will be nearly good by post time.

The main supporting race looks destined to go to St Nicholas Abbey for the third year in a row. You have to admire Dunaden for his efforts in Australia but it’s hard to see him having enough speed to cope with the O’Brien horse. Having supported Chapter Seven in the ante-post market for the Royal Hunt Cup I am a bit dismayed to see him employed as a pacemaker here! It hadn’t even occurred to me that he would be given such a role. Obviously the favourite is going to be unbackable so it is a race to watch rather than bet on.

The Epsom Dash looks impossible to unravel but I’ve already put up La Fortunata as a speculative each-way bet after her fine run here last time. She has made the frame on all five previous visits to the course but this represents her toughest challenge. I’m hoping that her early speed will at least give her a sporting chance at 20-1. There are of course plenty of dangers including Ajjaad who pipped her last time. There has been a lot of money for Long Awaited from David Barron’s stable, a yard that are in cracking form at the moment.

Tim Easterby has previous winner Captain Dunne primed for another crack at this prize after an eye-catching run at Chester. He has also finished second in this race so it is no wonder he is prominent in the betting. Stable companion Confessional got no run at all last year and finished on the heels of the leaders and he too caught the eye at Chester. He was never close enough to land a blow but was not knocked about by Paul Hanagan and it would be no surprise to see him put up his best run for a while.

Looking further ahead to Sunday, the French Derby has attracted a large field with Intello put up as the early favourite. As a supporter of Ocovango, I’m interested in the chances of Bravodino who chased him home last time out. The colt is held in high regard at home and 8-1 could offer a bit of value.

Ante Post
Ocovango 9-1, Chopin 12-1 Derby
La Fortunata 20-1 Epsom Dash

Confessional 16-1 Epsom Dash William Hill
Bravodino 8-1 French Derby Paddy Power

Horse Racing Preview Monday 27th May

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The Bank Holiday cards offer more in the way of quantity rather than quality but I’ve picked out a couple of bets worth considering. The opening race on Leicester’s card is a competitive little handicap for three-year-olds over five furlongs.

The one that interests me is the top weight Secondo, trained by Roger Charlton. He is a colt by July Cup winner Sakhee’s Secret and runs in the colours of Al Kazeem who gave the stable a big win at the Curragh on Sunday. Secondo showed some promise as a two-year-old but really caught the eye on his first run this season when he made up late ground to win at Salisbury. He was taken steadily to post and restrained at the rear of the field and showed a touch of class to pick them off in the closing stages. I think he is up to defying top weight here and 7-2 looks worth a bet with Paddy Power.

My second selection runs over at Carlisle and is another promising sort called Danat Al Atheer. He is trained by Willie Haggas who is always prepared to take his time with his three-year-olds and this lightly raced filly is taken to beat Lilac Lace and Tussie Mussie who fought out a thrilling duel at Thirsk. Danat Al Atheer was given plenty of ground to make up last time but did it nicely. You won’t get very rich at 13-8 but she should win this on the way to better things.

We had mixed fortunes over the weekend but were rescued by Just The Judge, advised here at 100-30. She made up for the disappointing run of Sole Power and the withdrawal of Here Comes When due to the firm ground. The most striking performance at the Curragh was that of Magician in the Irish 2000 Guineas, landing some bets at 14-1 for those “in the know”. Trying to guess what is going to run where out of Ballydoyle often requires psychic powers but credit to the stable for dropping him back in distance.

His win also cast a shadow over the already suspect Newmarket 2000 Guineas form with Van Der Neer nowhere to be sighted. It is worth remembering that Camelot’s Guineas form was hardly sensational but that didn’t stop him winning easily at Epsom. It would certainly be interesting if Magician lined up next Saturday but the last Irish Guineas winner to attempt it was Saffron Walden in 1999 (well beaten behind Oath). For the moment I’m happy to stick with my ante-post bet on Ocovango at 9-1 but there could be some interesting developments in the market as the week goes on.

Secondo 7-2 Paddy Power
Danat Al Atheer 13-8 Paddy Power

Epsom Derby Ante-Post Update

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The jigsaw for the 2013 Epsom Derby is almost complete with Dawn Approach certain to go off a short-priced favourite after his emphatic 2000 Guineas victory. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials with Battle Of Marengo being touted as the best of his legion of entries. There are also challengers from France and Germany and a surprise Dante winner trained in Yorkshire.

Dawn Approach was around 7-4 after his Guineas win but is now a top-priced 5-4. The colt was supplemented for Epsom only weeks before his Newmarket victory and there are certainly doubts regarding his stamina. His style of racing has been put forward as the main reason for this newfound confidence in his ability to stay the Derby distance.

Last season he often needed to be driven along quite some way out before asserting his superiority. This has given the impression that he is a very good horse rather than a superstar. He has not cruised into his races or produced an electrifying burst of speed to kill of the opposition. He was under pressure well over a furlong out on Guineas day but kept finding more and had five lengths to spare at the line. The jury is still out on exactly what he beat the day with the runner-up having been sent off at odds of 150-1 and Toronado seemingly failing to give his true running.

In an ordinary year you would expect an impressive trial winner or proven stayer to have emerged as his chief rival. Battle Of Marengo was expected to fill that role but his Leopardstown win was inconclusive and he is no certainty to stay a mile and a half on his pedigree either. O’Brien won both Chester trials easily with Ruler of the World and Magician but neither has quite captured the public’s imagination. Magician now looks likely to run in the Irish Guineas this weekend and his Derby odds have drifted to over 60-1 on Betfair. Ruler of the World beat only 3 rivals in the Chester Vase and is difficult to assess whilst Mars didn’t do enough in the Guineas to encourage support at Epsom.

The Dante at York was expected to provide a serious challenger in Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope but he was forced to withdraw with a minor infection. The media circus has since been watching his every move but he would have to be something very special to win the Derby on his first start as a three-year-old. At long odds you might be tempted but at 7-1? In the event, the Dante was won by outsider Libertarian who was niggled along early but simply outstayed his rivals in the straight.

The French challenger Ocovango is unbeaten in three races and has won over eleven furlongs. His sire Monsun is an outstanding source of middle-distance runners including Manduro, Shirocco and Getaway. They tended to improve with age and there is still a slight stamina doubt on the dam’s side. However, he seems to settle well in his races and should be a straightforward ride. He’s a top price of 9-1 with William Hill.

Chopin has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths in Germany. He is by high-class miler Santiago out of a Galileo mare so he has a chance of staying the trip. The bookmakers are being very respectful of his chances with quotes as low as 10-1. Like Ocovango, he has shown his best form on a softer surface and is difficult to weigh up. At this stage I just prefer Ocovango.

Ocovango 9-1 (each-way) William Hill

York Dante Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Nocturn’s narrow defeat on the opening day was a bit of a sickener. Everything went to plan until the last 50 yards when Mass Rally appeared fast and late on the opposite side to foil the gamble. Having worked out that his tendency to hang left would be negated by his low draw I was feeling quite pleased with myself as he looked set to complete his hat-trick. Hopefully there will be other days for this promising sprinter.

I was also left wondering what might have been after the Duke of York Stakes when Hawkeyethenoo was a fast finishing fourth, the fate of all good each-way bets. Jockey Graham Lee has looked a natural since switching to the flat from jumps but this was not one of his better-judged races. He passed up a couple of opportunities to switch his mount into the clear on the outside in favour of taking the more congested inside route. By the time he got a clear run it was too late.

Day two features the Dante Stakes and the latest raid by team O’Brien on the Derby trials. The Chester Vase and Dee Stakes looked particularly weak affairs whilst the Lingfield Derby trial was reduced to a virtual walkover for Nevis following the defection of Greatwood. O’Brien saddles Indian Chief here, an easy winner of his maiden last time out and currently available at 20-1 for Epsom. The stable also has Mars and Battle Of Marengo to consider. The Derby is in danger of becoming a straight fight between Dawn Approach and Team O’Brien unless the Dante can throw up a rival contender.

Sir Michael Stoute withdrew Telescope from the race with a minor infection and it now seems that the colt will have to go straight to Epsom. He runs in the same colours of Greatwood who could prove an able deputy on Thursday after a highly promising run at Newmarket. He was finishing best of all behind Windhoek that day and shaped as though a mile and a half would suit him even better. Soft ground was put forward as the reason for his absence at Lingfield but I am slightly concerned that he may already find this mile and a quarter a little sharp. Luca Cumani knows how to train a Derby winner and I think this likeable colt could enter the picture tomorrow. William Hill offer 5-1 for the Dante and 25-1 for the Derby so I shall take a little of both and hope that he puts in a bold showing.

The Hambleton Handicap has always been one of the best mile handicaps of the season, often providing clues to races such as the Hunt Cup and Goodwood’s Golden Mile. Tomorrow’s race does not appear to have quite the same quality about it but I am intrigued by David O’Meara’s two runners. Two For Two and Anderiego finished third and second respectively in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, both coming from way off the pace. Two For Two was knocked sideways by St Moritz early on and it is not surprising to see him chalked up favourite. It would be tempting fate not to have a saver on Anderiego and both should run well.

In the stayers race I am siding with Hidden Justice who has been transformed by a spell over hurdles. He won easily at Pontefract on his return to the flat and could be up to defying a 10lb rise in the weights tomorrow.

Greatwood 5-1 Dante William Hill, 25-1 (each-way) Derby William Hill
Two For Two 9-2 William Hill
Anderiego 9-1 (each-way) William Hill
Hidden Justice 5-1 Ladbrokes