Tag: Dante Stakes

Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

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The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

York Preview – Thursday 14th May

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Betcirca followers were up 25 points to level stakes on Wednesday’s sports betting advice. Mahsoob (7-2) started the ball rolling at York and was followed by Algar Lad (16-1). The Champions League semi-final second leg between Real Madrid and Juventus yielded a further ten points profit after we correctly forecast the score line, the first goal scorer and the number of goals.

Thursday’s racing at York is all about the Dante Stakes, a race which looks certain to spark a major shake-up in the Epsom Derby betting. I have been scratching my head to think of an occasion when a handicap winner was made Derby favourite and I have so far failed to come up with one. Even trainer John Gosden has described it as “a bit silly” but we will know how silly after the Dante. Jack Hobbs is the horse in question and he is joined by stable companion Golden Horn.

Aidan O’Brien’s John F Kennedy ran too badly to be true last time but does not carry maximum stable confidence and I’m sticking with the Group 1 form of Elm Park. I followed him as a two-year-old and missing the Guineas due to the ground may have been a blessing in disguise.

After solving the conundrum of the six-furlong sprint on Wednesday I have to take a stab at Thursday’s five furlong dash. David O’Meara sounded certain that he would not be running Algar Lad again so I’m going for Desert Law who was not far behind him at Ripon. Unlike many of these, he is better at five furlongs than six.

Bragging is difficult to oppose having won at Newmarket despite looking likely to need the race. That was her first race beyond a mile and she was finishing strongly so could be quite a force over ten furlongs. Several of her rivals would prefer more cut in the ground and/or a longer trip.

David O’Meara could strike in another competitive handicap with Fort Bastion. He went for a repeat win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but never saw daylight all the way up the straight, finishing on a tight rein. He can reverse the form with runner-up Off Art who is lightly raced and feared most.

Tendu looks solid in the sprint at 4.20 after chasing home Limato at Ascot. The winner is surely going to take high honours in the sprinting division this season. Moscato is a typically progressive Sir Mark Prescott stayer and can extend his sequence to five in the last.

Desert Law 2.10 @14-1 William Hill

Bragging 2.40 @5-2 Paddy Power

Elm Park 3.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Fort Bastion 3.45 @8-1 Betfair

Tendu 4.20 @5-4 Ladbrokes

Moscato 5.20 @11-4 Ladbrokes

York Thursday Preview

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The opening day of the York Dante meeting proved tough going with That Is The Spirit saving our bacon in the 3.50. Regardez did finish in front of Cambridge but was only good enough to take third in the Musidora, a race which looked anything but an Oaks trial.

The Dante does not look likely to have much impact on the Derby picture unless something wins by a street. The prime candidate to do that is True Story, the mount of Keiren Fallon. The form of the Feilden Stakes is patchy and I was very disappointed with Somewhat at Chester last week. Even so, he did win by seven lengths so he is entitled to be hot favourite here.

You could argue that Arod has similar credentials in that he pulled hard but still won easily at Windsor. However, he beat little and this is a shot in the dark. Bunker’s form received a boost with the French Guineas last weekend and he is not out of it, although the Hannon horses seem to need a run so far this season. The only sensible policy is to sit this one out.

For my main bet on the card I’m going for the unlucky Spring Cup runner-up Spa’s Dancer in the Hambleton Handicap. At seven-years-old he is not likely to be improving but he may well have caught Gabrial’s Kaka at Newbury with a clear run. Haggas throws a spanner in the works with the un-raced pair Queensberry Rules and Fury, either of whom could win on their best form.

The Middleton Stakes is also a bit of a puzzle. I was a keen supporter of The Lark last season and took 33-1 each-way in the Oaks (third) and backed her to win at Doncaster. She has a liking for soft ground but this looks on the sharp side first time out.

Secret Gesture may have been flattered by her 10 lengths Lingfield Oaks Trial win last season and her second at Epsom may have been as good as she is. Thistle Bird is probably the form choice but has not run this season while Gifted Girl may step up on her Newmarket third. It’s a tricky one but we’ll side with Gifted Girl at an each-way price.

I would probably have as much chance of finding the winner of the opening sprint with a sharp pin but Top Boy ran well enough at Chester to warrant support.

Top Boy 1.45 York at 12-1 Bet365

Gifted Girl 2.15 York at 6-1 Paddy Power

Spa’s Dancer 3.15 York at 13-2 Totesport