Goodwood Thursday Preview

I’m always a bit worried when I tip the same horse as the Tipsy Tipster. Not that I question his judgement of course! It just feels like the poor horse is carrying a 10lb penalty!

That was certainly the case for Excess Knowledge in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. Having looked as though he needed every yard when staying on into third at Sandown last time I was sure he would be sitting third or fourth but Master Buick decided otherwise and held him up at the back.

As we saw at Sandown, he doesn’t do anything very quickly so being messed about when trying to get a run was far from ideal. The Channel 4 commentary team was quite kind to Buick but basically he rode a poor race and should definitely have won. Whether or not it was St Leger form I’m not sure but there will be another day for Excess Knowledge.

My winnings from Yeager are slowly but surely making their way back to the beloved bookies thanks to Goodwood so let’s hope for better luck on Cup day. At first glance it looks a bit of a weak renewal with neither Estimate or Simenon in attendance. John Oxx has expressed the view that it is a better race than last year when Saddler’s Rock won and he is most concerned by Brown Panther and Mount Athos.

Of the two I much prefer Brown Panther who has never quite fulfilled his potential. Perhaps this step up in trip will be the making of him and he’s a fair price at around 8-1. I’m also going to support the German raider Altano who was sat out of his ground at Ascot and got going all too late in fifth. I’m hoping that the penny will have dropped for jockey Mr Pedroza and he will be closer to the pace this time (famous last words!).

There are some promising types in the opener but none more so than Code Of Honor. There was a lot to like about his Sandown victory and he looks the sort of horse that could wind up in the Cambridgeshire.

Ben Hall must be better than he showed at Ascot as he was well supported that day. The form wasn’t exactly franked earlier in the week and I should probably do Gosden and Buick a favour and leave them alone! Unfortunately the fact that he’s about 10-1 and the form horse Figure Of Speech is 6-4 leaves me no choice but to support Ben Hall each-way.

My last bet of the day is on Muharrib in the 4.50. I felt confident that he was coming to win his race at Newmarket before hanging right to the rail and finishing second to Law Enforcement. These three-year-old handicaps take some figuring out but I think he’s still got improvement in him and will be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

Code Of Honor 4-1 Coral
Ben Hall 10-1 Totesport
Brown Panther 8-1 Skybet
Altano 13-2 William Hill
Muharrib 8-1 Coral

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

The weather put paid to my Goodwood selections on day 1. As soon as I tuned in to see the mist and rain I knew my fate! Fortunately Aljamaaheer was withdrawn in the hope of finding faster ground elsewhere.

I was hoping that Sir Graham Wade might also be taken out but he took his chance. I must admit that I find jockeys a law unto themselves at times. First time blinkers on and Franny Norton chased him out of the stalls as if it was a five furlong dash! Not surprisingly he took off and Norton spent the next mile trying to pull him back. Then, when the grey was well and truly shattered, he started giving him reminders! I can only imagine that the horse what the horse may have been thinking “Go, Stop, Go, Will you make up your ******* mind!”

Anyway, clearly we have to take the softened ground into consideration if we are to survive five days so here is a look at day 2. The feature race is being rather foolishly termed as the duel on the Downs. Sound familiar? Yes, Frankel versus Canford Cliffs (a bit one-sided as far as duels go). I cannot see it as a two horse race with Declaration Of War in the field.

Followers of this column will know that he swept past my two ante-post bets in the Queen Anne to deny me a 33-1 win payout on the afore-mentioned Aljamaaheer. I’d also suggested that Gregorian was overpriced at 50-1 and he ran a stormer in third. I think he may be overpriced again here at 33-1 but it is hard to see him reversing form with O’Brien’s colt.

Declaration Of War has since run a fine second behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse with Mars in behind. That was over a mile and a quarter but this is his best trip and there is no evidence that the three-year-old mile division is any better than the middle-distance horses. I think 11-2 is generous, especially given the softer ground, so I shall take him with a saver on Gregorian.

Whatever the fate of Gregorian, Gosden should still be among the winners. Excess Knowledge has an excellent chance in the Gordon Stakes. He took on older horses at Sandown on his belated first appearance as a three-year-old and stayed on well behind Mandour. They don’t look a great bunch lined up against him and 9-4 seems fair.

Much Promise lived up to her name on her debut when chasing home Sir Michael Stoute’s Along Again without being hard ridden. The winner ran well at Ascot on Saturday so the form may be better than first appeared.

JG can finish off a good day with the well handicapped Close At Hand in the 5.25. The daughter of Exceed And Excel won a poor maiden at Windsor easily enough but could have got in here with a lenient handicap mark.

Excess Knowledge (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Declaration Of War 11-2 Stan James
Gregorian (each-way) 33-1 Bet Victor
Much Promise
Close At Hand 8-1 Paddy Power

Glorious Goodwood Tuesday Preview

Yeager (20-1) gave us a timely boost on Saturday ahead of Glorious Goodwood. It was nice to get one on the board on a very tricky card. Trading Leather never looked like beating Novellist in the King George but he clung on to second place and that’s probably about as good as he is. It’s going to take a good horse to lower Novellist’s colours in the Arc.

Goodwood kicks off with a cracking good handicap over a mile and a quarter. I am a fan of Nabucco but I’m put off by his wide draw here. Fast Or Free has been taken out of several big handicaps at the last minute, presumably to wait for a bit of give in the ground. Haggas produced a nice horse to win first time out at York on Saturday so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. The trip is a bit further than he’s been before but he could be a group horse disguised as a handicapper and makes some appeal at 7-1.

The Molecomb Stakes looks a bit like the Windsor Palace Stakes revisited with four of that field renewing rivalry. Kevin Ryan’s Sleeper King was in front of his group for a long way at Ascot and I can see him hurtling down the hill here. Supplicant and Anticipated have obvious claims but it’s worth taking a punt at 12-1 that Sleeper King can hold on.

My old friend Aljamaaheer simply has to be my first day banker in the Lennox Stakes. He deservedly got his head in front here in the Summer Mile but this step back to seven furlongs won’t trouble him. He always travels well but doesn’t quite find as much as you would expect so Hanagan will be delivering his challenge as late as possible. If you can get the 11-4 I think that is a rattling good price for a class horse.

The mile and three quarter handicap that closes the TV coverage on day 1 features a host of familiar names. At the start of the season I thought Sir Graham Wade would make a Cup horse but he’s been very disappointing. He gets the blinkers fitted tomorrow for the first time and they should help Franny Norton to get a bit more out of him.

The Johnston horses are a law unto themselves and I have just about given up trying to figure them out. They run every week and vary between brilliant and average, Galician being a case in point at Ascot on Saturday. Oriental Fox looked set to win the slowly run Northumberland Plate but you could tell that his jockey was praying for the line and he got pipped by Tominator. I’m probably going to regret this but I’ll give the grey one more chance as he is twice the price of his stable companion.

Fast Or Free 7-1 Boylesports
Sleeper King 12-1 Ladbrokes
Aljamaaheer (NAP) 11-4 Coral
Sir Graham Wade 9-1 Betfair

Tipsy Tipsters Saturday tips

A few of my old favourites are running on Saturday, and at the risk of sounding like someone who follows horses off a cliff, i will be backing both as if they are dead certs! I feel the time of year is right for them, and they’ve shown enough ability last time out to suggest they could well be ready and primed to take one of Saturdays main races.

Bosun Breese – Musselburgh 3:35 16-1 PaddyPower

This horse carries a feather weight compared to some of the more fancied horses, which is a big plus. At exactly this time last year he racked up 4 out of 5 wins during the months of June and July. David Barrons horses are hitting a bit of form with the stable having a 22% strike rate so far in June, and at 16-1, i think he offers fantastic value for not only each way, but the win. The race is a 20 runner affair, so anything could happen, but he does relish big fields over the straight 5, so we know if he’s up for it, he’ll put lots of effort in.

Quick Wit – York 3:15 5-1 William Hill

I love Meydan form, and although Quick Wit only won a handicap in the UAE, the fact that Saeed Bin Suroor has a fantastic 27% strike rate in the last 2 weeks puts alot of confidence behind this selection. His last success in the UK came in a class 2 race at Doncaster last September. He’s up against some well performing sorts who have been doing well lately, so his absense since Meydan is slightly concerning, but if any trainer can get a horse ready for the big day, it’s Bin Suroor, so i expect Quick Wit to run quite the race!

I was contemplating putting up Stipulate as the main danger, but, in his last race, despite the shorty being withdrawn at the start at Goodwood, he was still laboured and made is incredibly hard on himself to go passed the 25-1 rank outsider, finishing 2nd. That sort of mental issue doesnt fill me with confidence. One win in 14 starts, with most of his efforts being 2nd or 3rd.. hmmm!

Saturday 4th May Horse Racing Tips

It’s been a decent week for us, several winners and a cheeky double. Who could want any more than that?

Today is 2000 guineas day, and in typical Tipsy Tipster fashion, i am going to look away from the race in order to find us a winner today. Why? I think the 2000 guineas is actually difficult to call, my heart wants Dawn Approach to win, my head is saying Toronado could put it to him, can’t decide. Reverse Forecast maybe?

Sentaril – 4:05 Goodwood – 11/4 Stanjames

Sentaril, ridden by Graham Lee, is the top rated horse in this race. He has shown he takes to the mile distance after asserting when beating Burke’s Rock (who reopposes) last time out at Lingfield. Burke’s rock has a 3 pound pull at the weights under Mikael Barzelona, and is the most likely to come 2nd to the selection.

Stiring Ballad will be popular and could well get up and win, but the form of Sentaril, what he’s achieved and the company he’s been keeping should see him come out on top today.

Additionally, another horse worthy of a little investment is Ayaar in the 17:35 at Newmarket. A muliple winner last year including a group 3 contest at Baden-Baden. He took on Dawn Approach after that and understandly got well beaten. His next run he took on Gareswood in a group 1 at Newmarket, finishing 4th, 3 lengths behind that day. This is a class drop, and at around the 13/2 mark (Stanjames) – He’s well worth a look.

Racing Preview Saturday 4th May

Saturday’s feature race is the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but there are plenty of other races worthy of study. In truth, the rest of Newmarket’s card is a little disappointing. I am often surprised at the poor turnout for Group races in this country and the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) is a case in point. Just four runners for a £100,000 race preceding the first classic of the season? I know that the authorities do their best with the re-opening of races but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a change to the programme next year.

The opening race is an interesting handicap and the betting is likely to revolve around Rye House, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He doesn’t keep them in training at four unless they are likely to pay their way and the lightly raced son of Dansili starts the season on a fair handicap mark. The Palace House Stakes is typically competitive and I’m a big fan of Spirit Quartz, trained by Robert Cowell. He won well enough at Nottingham first time out and is surely destined for a big sprint victory this season. I would have been more confident but for being drawn 15 tomorrow but he looks worth supporting at 13-2.

In the 4.25 I’ve got to side with Fils Anges who got no run at all when a beaten favourite last time out. Michael Bell’s grey colt was gaining with every stride but the post came too soon in the Nottingham race won by Mayfield Girl. The form of the race may not be anything special but the extra furlong will help and Hayley Turner can guide him to victory. Mark Johnston runs Windhoek quite quickly after winning a valuable sales race here last month. That looked a better class of race than he faces tomorrow and it will be disappointing if he cannot remain unbeaten.

Away from Newmarket there are one or two horses worth noting for the season ahead. William Haggas is sending Sentaril to Goodwood to start her campaign. She looked a smart filly last season but never quite fulfilled the promise of her great run in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. She won over a mile on the all-weather without really having the run of the race and can confirm the placings with runner-up Burke’s Rock on the way to better things.

Sir Michael Stoute runs another useful sort in Enrol in the sprint handicap at Doncaster tomorrow evening. The lightly-raced daughter of Pivotal won two of her four starts as a three-year-old and is difficult to assess on that form. Cheveley Park will be hoping she can step up from handicaps to listed class later in the season and she will be a popular choice here. There is also a good quality card at Thirsk featuring the Thirsk Hunt Cup. David O’Meara’s stable continue to churn out the winners and he is well represented throughout the meeting. However, the draw has not been kind to his horses and course regular Dubai Dynamo could represent each-way value.

Rye House 2.05 Newmarket 7-1 Paddy Power
Spirit Quartz 2.35 Newmarket 13-2 Paddy Power
Fils Anges (NAP) 4.25 Newmarket 8-1 Paddy Power
Windhoek 5.00 Newmarket 11-8 Bet365
Sentaril (NB) 4.05 Goodwood 11-4 Bet Victor
Dubai Dynamo 4.35 Thirsk 16-1 Bet365
Enrol 6.45 Doncaster 3-1 Bet365