Tag: Rye House

Haydock Saturday Preview

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At the time of writing, the rain is apparently “pelting down” at Haydock on Friday evening and the going is already good from good to firm. That probably means some testing conditions for Saturday’s card and that means some careful consideration is needed.

It looks a good quality card on Saturday but there are almost certain to be a load of non-runners if the going turns soft. The pick of the form has been achieved on fast ground so it may pay to delve a bit deeper and find horses that will go in softer ground.

The first horse that stands out is Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House. He obviously has his problems as he is now five years old and this will be only his ninth start. He impressed me when winning at York last season in soft ground but did not reappear for a year. He finished fifth behind the well-handicapped Clever Cookie but did not have his conditions next time at Newmarket. He could start at a lot shorter than 6-1 if the going continues to deteriorate.

Nabucco is a horse that I have followed since early in his three-year-old career. He is tough and consistent but does not like fast ground. All things considered, it was a decent run to finish third to Amralah at Newbury last month on good ground. He absolutely hacked up in heavy ground at Salisbury last season and he could get a Group 3 success in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes tomorrow.

Hillstar did not look entirely happy on this sort of ground at Chester in May and I’ve never really been entirely convinced by him. True Story looks overrated and Nabucco can gain revenge on Amralah.

There are some interesting races later in the day, notably the Listed Fillies’ Stakes at 3.25. I am tempted to support Psychometry here but there is no real evidence that she likes soft ground. She was third at Goodwood behind Marsh Daisy but was well beaten. It was her eye-catching run at Ascot that makes her worth keeping an eye on. She never had an inch of space and yet managed to finish full of running within four lengths of the winner. She has a decent race in her, I’m just not sure that it will be tomorrow. Each-way might be the way to go.

Rye House 2.20 Haydock at 6-1 Bet365

Nabucco 2.55 Haydock at 8-1 BetVictor

Psychometry 3.25 Haydock at 10-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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Wonderstruck (11-4) kept us in profit on Friday when eclipsing the £2.6 million colt Hydrogen. It will be interesting to see where they go next with Qatar Racing’s record purchase but we are not quite talking Snaafi Dancer just yet!

Tomorrow offers a glut of tricky handicaps and stakes races at Newmarket, York and Haydock. There are some very competitive fields, in total contrast to the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on Thursday night. I think that must be a contender for the weakest Group 3 race in living memory and it must have been very frustrating for the race planners.

I was surprised by the decision to pull out Remote after Hillstar had already been withdrawn, especially after John Gosden had taken a chance with Kingman last week at the Curragh. He was rewarded there with a classic victory.

Top Tug reminded us just how much Sir Michael Stoute’s horses can improve from their first run of the season and I’m looking to Rye House to do the same tomorrow. He won impressively at York last season but never made it back to the track. He did not get the clearest of runs at York on his return behind Clever Cookie but showed enough to warrant support at Newmarket tomorrow. Soft ground won’t bother him and it is just a matter of whether or not he is good enough to win off a mark of 98.

My other selection for Newmarket is more speculative. I’m taking a chance on Picture Dealer in the sprint, although I do have slight reservations about the ground. He ran a race packed full of promise when finishing in midfield at York first time out and he looks just the sort to bag a nice prize this season. He did win on soft ground at Brighton in 2012 but his most recent victories have come on a faster surface.

York looks fiendishly difficult so I’m going to bypass that meeting and look to Haydock instead. The seven furlong race looks quite a hot contest with the likes of Tawhid and Garswood entered. They are both talented horses who have yet to fulfil their potential. The same cannot be said of Eton Forever who is a real seven-furlong specialist and looks the safest option at around 9-2.

Eton Forever 2.40 Haydock at 9-2 Totesport

Picture Dealer 3.00 Newmarket at 16-1 Totesport, Ladbrokes

Rye House 3.35 Newmarket at 3-1 Paddy Power

York Magnet Cup Preview

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York’s Magnet Cup is always a great betting race and Saturday’s race has attracted a massive 42 declarations at the confirmation stage. There are some rapidly improving types amongst them and the two that stand out for me are Niceofyoutotellme and Nabucco, first and second at Newmarket last month.

John Gosden’s Nabucco did this column a favour when landing a handicap at the same venue but has incurred a 5lb penalty. That theoretically gives him a lot to do with Niceofyoutotellme, being 3lbs worse off with the horse that beat him a length.

As far as I am aware, both horses have been given the green light for the race and there are no major concerns about the fast ground. Ralph Beckett’s horse first caught my eye when finishing like a train to win on the all-weather and he produced a fine turn of foot to cut down Nabucco last time. The runner-up won nicely under a canny ride from Ryan Moore subsequently and could still be improving.

The draw has come to the rescue of the bookies on several occasions recently and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that these two smart horses are not given an impossible task. Ladbrokes are best on both horses and I expect both to shorten up.

The early favourite is Stencive, trained by William Haggas and ridden by the in-form Graham Lee. He was heavily backed when second to Opinion at Royal Ascot last month. I expressed reservations about the quality of that particular Ascot race last week and it was no real surprise that Opinion could not lump 9st 10lb to victory in the Old Newton Cup. Having said that, he ran creditably in a muddling sort of race and Stencive did give him too much rope at Ascot.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House is a horse that I have been keen to follow since he bolted up at York earlier in the season but he has missed a number of engagements since. In fact, he was Moore’s intended mount at Ascot before switching to Opinion. I think his problem may be the ground as he does hit the ground quite hard. I’m guessing that Sir Michael is waiting for a bit of cut in the ground before risking him and I don’t see that happening this weekend.

Another progressive sort is Clon Brulee who absolutely hacked up at Ripon before following up in the Zetland Gold Cup. If he gets a favourable draw he could well prove a danger and he has the right profile for this race.

David Simcock’s Whispering Warrior keeps on winning and has gone up over two stone in the handicap this season. His only recent blemish came at Newmarket when he was baulked early on and could never get competitive. He looks like one of those horses who keeps a bit to himself in the closing stages and is another to consider in a fascinating contest.

For the moment, I shall pin my colours to the Newmarket form and hope that the declarations and draw are favourable.

Niceofyoutotellme 12-1 Ladbrokes
Nabucco 16-1 Ladbrokes

Ascot 2013 – Each Way Betting Though The Card

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I have been having some fun at Ascot this year by betting each way through the card. My fellow tipsters think I am crazy but I have already turned a profit of £300. The way I have been playing this madness is by studying the form of the races one by one and picking out the following.

1. Has the horse placed in its last three run out?
2. Has the horse run the distance in its last three run outs?
3. Whats the distance compared to the Racing Post Top Speed rating?
4. Who the stable is and jockey?
5. What is the Racing Post rating for the horse?
6. Has the horse run on this ground before and placed or won?
7. Is the price good for a mega EW accumulator or EW single.

Has the horse placed in its last three run out?

I always look for a horse that has shown it can run the race its been entered in for. I then look for if its been placed in the last three of its races. This gives me confidence that this horse can place again. With the right jockey and ground it will give me the place if its got a track record of placing and winning.

Has the horse run the distance in its last three run outs?

If the horse has never run the distance then it has to be a horse that is showing some improvement. But to be honest for this type of bet you really need to lower the odds and select a horse that has run in the same or a better class race and has placed or run over the distance or more.

Who the stable is and jockey?

It is very important to know that Jockeys do have a major impact of the performance of a horse when it is racing. The Jockey will know how to ride the horse and get the best from the horse. Simple things like riding the horse in to the areas of the track which best suit the horses form, so getting the horse running in a more firmer part of the track rather than a softer part. Plus he will know when to push the horse so it can kick on to the finish. You will see the top jockeys know there horses and will ride the horse a few times in meetings before the race you are about to bet in. If a top jockey is going to ride a horse and swop from one stable to another that’s a good sign that this horse has a chance to place.

What is the Racing Post rating for the horse?

The Racing Post rating give you an indication of the quality of the horse and who its has run against and beat or placed. Its a good indication of the class of the horse and if its worth a punt in a race or just been entered so it gains a better rating in future races. Don’t be fooled by the Racing Post Rating it can sometimes be blown apart if a good horse is having a bad day and a new up and coming horse is having a good day. So air with caution when picking horses just on the Racing Post Ratings.

Has the horse run on this ground before and placed or won?

The ground does play a big part in a horses performance. Some horses really like soft ground and will run in mud and win. Some like it hard and will bounce off hard ground as if it was like rubber. You should always look if a horse has run and won or placed consistently on its preferred ground. The great horses can run on anything and win but they are very few and far between. You should always be cautious of horses that run on AW and then switch to turf as they are two different types of surface and not many horse cross between both and win or place. Stables will enter there horses in to All Weather races so give them a run out plus to keep them in the ratings. So don’t be put off by bad form if the horse is a Turf runner and has a bad day or night on the All Weather track.

Is the price good for a mega EW accumulator or EW single.

My final and foremost thing I look for is the value for my accumulator. I am looking for over 6/1 as then it will form a very good accumulator across the card. Don’t take SP always take the price and with a bookie that gives you Best Odds Guaranteed.

So here are my horses for the final day at Ascot 2013. I would suggest you pick and choose and make up small £1 EW bets throughout the day or maybe do a placepot or scoop6 on Totesport.

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Ascot – 2:30

Somewhat – 7/2 Will Hill
Bureau – 20/1 20/1 Will Hill
Freedom Square – 12/1 Ladbrokes
Bunker – 3/1 Coral
Friendship – 9/1 Skybet
Autumn Lily – 8/1 Paddy Power

Ascot – 3:05

Aiken – 10/1 Coral
Noble Mission – 12/1 Coral
Thomas Chippingdale – 11/1 Coral

Ascot – 3:45

Lethal Force – 10/1 Bet365
Maarek – 20/1 Will Hill
Dandy Boy – 12/1 Bet365

Ascot – 4:25

Gabriels Lad – 10/1 Will Hill
Pooles Harbour – 18/1 Ladbrokes
Royal Rock – 20/1 Coral
Nocturn – 11/1 Paddypower
Arnold Lane – 28/1 Coral
Prodigality – 22/1 Coral

Ascot – 5:00

The Tiger – 20/1 Bet365
Carvan Rolls – 7/1 Will Hill
Stencive – 8/1 Skybet
Rye House – 6/1 Coral
Beaumonts Party – 14/1 Skybet
Ustura – 9/1 Ladbrokes
Voddoo Prince – 20/1 Will Hill

Ascot – 5:35

Junior – 12/1 Bet365
Stopped Out – 14/1 Coral

Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview – Saturday 22nd June

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The bookmakers were the winners on day 4 with our double on the O’Brien horses thwarted by Hillstar. Congratulations to connections of Sky Lantern after she put Just The Judge firmly in her place. Perhaps we will see the grey take on Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes? We’re still well ahead on the week but the effect of the draw is a real head-scratcher going into Saturday’s big sprints.

On Thursday night it was an established fact that it was an advantage to be drawn low but that all changed with the result of the Buckingham Palace Stakes. Low numbers never got a look in with stalls 32, 30 and 24 the first three home. Could it have simply been a question of there being more pace on the near side or did Thursday nights watering all fall on the far side of the track? We will never know.

Our ante-post wagers on the Wokingham are Duke Of Firenze (10-1) drawn 31 and Nocturn (25-1) drawn 12. The form of Nocturn was not exactly boosted by a miserable effort from Enrol today but we’ve still got good value. My main concern is whether he will continue to hang left in his races. He got away with it at Newmarket and Windsor but I’m not sure he could afford to do it here.

As it is the last day of the meeting and we’ve got funds in the bank I’m going to put up another couple of long shots. Mass Rally left me cursing when swooping to catch Nocturn on the Knavesmire but has been leniently treated by the handicapper here. Whether or not stall 6 is good I have no idea but 25-1 does not do him justice. The other is Shropshire, trained by Charlie Hills. He suffered a nightmare run at Newmarket and is just the sort to pop up in a race like this. He’s coming out of 18 so we’ll have covered most eventualities!

In the opening race I like Autumn Lily at 14-1. Her stable companion Ihtimal has been slashed in price for finishing second to today’s runaway winner Kiyoshi but I liked the attitude of Autumn Lily at Haydock and hope she can at least reach a place.

In the Hardwicke Stakes I am keen to oppose Mount Athos, not because I have anything against the horse, but simply because the race he won at Chester was hardly worthy of the name. There are some good tough horses up against him tomorrow and Ektihaam will presumably attempt to run them ragged. I like Aiken but Gosden’s horses have been shaping as though they will benefit from the run all week and Sir John Hawkwood is another tough nut to crack. I’ll side with Ektihaam.

Our Diamond Jubilee hopes rest with Society Rock and Hawkeyethenoo. I’d like to see enough rain to ease the going a fraction for Hawkeyethenoo as I’m convinced he could spring a surprise. There seems to be growing confidence in Sea Siren so I’m going to have a saver on the Australian raider.

In the penultimate race I am keen on Rye House after the way he won at York. I thought he looked a possible Ebor contender that day and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t defy a 9lb rise in the weights. You could make a decent case for Hammerfest or Blue Surf but I’m going to have an each-way on Lahaag. He did nothing wrong when second to First Mohican last time out and should make the frame for team Gosden.

Finally, class should tell in the last race as Shahwardi is way better than these on his form in Australia last winter. Admittedly his last run looks pretty awful but I can’t believe Monsieur Royer-Dupre would bring him over to Ascot half-cooked. The rest of the field are the usual mixture of non-stayers and prospective hunter chasers.

2.30 Autumn Lily 14-1 Stan James

3.05 Ektihaam 5-2 Coral

3.45 Ante-Post Hawkeyethenoo 16-1, Society Rock 9-2
Sea Siren 9-1 Coral

4.25 Ante-Post Nocturn 25-1, Duke Of Firenze 10-1
Mass Rally 25-1 Betfair
Shropshire 20-1 William Hill

5.00 Rye House 6-1 Totesport
Lahaag 11-1 Bet365

5.35 Shahwardi 7-2 Coral

York Dante Meeting Day 3 Preview May 17th

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The third and final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup. I have gone through this race several times and find it impossible to support any of the runners with any confidence. I have been following Sir Graham Wade’s progress with interest and it may be that he just needed his first couple of outings to put him right. The well-travelled Cavalryman and Joshua Tree have obvious claims and you cannot rule out Royal Diamond on his best form. The stayers division does look wide open this season, a point underlined by Mount Athos being made favourite for the Ascot Gold Cup after winning an egg and spoon race at Chester last week. A little each-way on Sir Graham Wade is the selection.

The supporting card kicks off with a quick reappearance for five-length Chester winner Quatuor. Tom Dascombe’s filly had the race won before the home turn that day and it is going to take a very speedy sort to lower her colours. Another winner on the Roodeye was Sir Michael Stoute’s Sir John Hawkwood and it is highly unusual for the Newmarket trainer to run his horses quickly under a penalty. Ryan Moore rode Chester to perfection that day, kicking his horse in the belly to get over from a wide draw and then staying close to the pace before delivering his effort on the turn. His style of victory was not particularly impressive but the opposition does not look particularly strong.

*Incidentally, for those who like to know these things, Sir John Hawkwood was an English-born mercenary who was active in 14th century Italy, amassing a fortune in land and gold. Sir Graham Wade is named after a musicologist known for his biographies.

Stoute produced Liber Nauticus to win the Musidora on Wednesday and has another smart filly in Pavlosk who won on her debut at Newbury. She is taken to take the step up to Listed class in her stride and the stable can round off a successful day with Rye House in the 4.25. The Dansili colt only raced three times as a three-year-old and has not been kept in training for the good of his health.

Over at Newbury it is worth keeping an eye out for Richard Hannon’s Ninjago. He was held up well off the pace at Ascot on his seasonal debut but moved effortlessly up to the leaders and won with plenty in hand. I expect him to take this Listed contest on the way to better things. Another horse that may not have finished winning is Luca Cumani’s Rockalong who goes for a four-timer over at Newmarket.

Quatuor 1.45 York 11-4 Paddy Power
Sir John Hawkwood 2.15 York 5-2 William Hill
Sir Graham Wade 2.45 York (each-way) 9-1 Bet Victor
Pavlosk (nb) 5-2 Paddy Power
Rye House 3-1 William Hill

Ninjago (NAP) Newbury 13-8 Paddy Power
Rockalong Newmarket 9-4 Ladbrokes