Tag: Gregorian

Newbury Saturday Preview

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It is Hungerford Stakes day at Newbury on Saturday with a field of seven set to go to post. The soft going may have contributed to the slightly sub-standard entry for this Group 2 race but there are some old favourites in the line-up.

Gregorian has been a good friend of mine over the past couple of seasons but I stopped short of supporting him in the July Cup. I had never felt that he had the speed for six furlongs but he ran a cracker to finish third. He usually likes soft ground but he seemed to get bogged down in heavy conditions at Deauville last weekend behind Garswood. I cannot support him after such a poor run and there are other seven furlong specialists in contention here.

I am going to side with the remarkably consistent Breton Rock. All of his six wins have been over seven furlongs on softer ground and this looks tailor-made for him. He was just denied by Penitent at Haydock last time but we should be guaranteed a run for our money. Apart from Gregorian, Chil The Kite will also be a threat if reproducing his tremendous run when second in the Royal Hunt Cup.

The Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes features several horses on the comeback trail including Melbourne Cup legend Red Cadeaux. Ed Dunlop’s globetrotting eight-year-old has finished runner-up in two Cups and is presumably setting out on his usual pre-Flemington campaign. He is actually best on official ratings and the stable are in great form.

Pether’s Moon is tough and consistent and it’s strange that Hannon is fitting him with blinkers for the first time here. I thought that he was in front plenty soon enough at Goodwood and stuck to his guns well. One that is capable of beating them both is James Fanshawe’s mare Seal Of Approval. She has not won since taking a Group 1 at Ascot last October but there is plenty of money around for her on Saturday.

The Washington Singer Stakes has been the launch pad of the careers of Lammtarra and Haafhd in the past but it is doubtful that there is a superstar among the four runners this year. However, Godolphin’s Hawkesbury can hardly be faulted on what he has achieved in two races. He ran on from the rear to beat all bar the smart Limato at Kempton on his debut and then hacked up at Doncaster by seven lengths. He faces a decent rival in Belardo but Hawkesbury can take the prize. I wouldn’t rule out a good run from Carry On Deryck either after his astonishing burst to win on his debut.

Hawkesbury 2.05 Newbury @11-8 Paddy Power

Seal Of Approval 2.40 Newbury @11-2 William Hill

Breton Rock 3.50 Newbury @5-1 BetVictor

Goodwood Tuesday Preview

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We arrive at Goodwood on something of a winning streak with our last six tips having won! Muhtarram also did us proud with our each-way bet in the King George so we have a few pennies to invest at the Sussex course this week.

If Tuesday’s card is anything to go by, this could be a difficult week for punters. The opening mile and a quarter handicap seems to have just about every in-form stable represented. Following Sir Michael Stoute’s horses has been very profitable in recent weeks and Stomachion must have a good chance of continuing that trend.

He was held up on the rail at Epsom and made good late headway to finish second. Like many of tomorrow’s fancied runners, he is dropping back to a mile and a half. I think he looks rock solid each-way material.

Magic Hurricane’s form looks red hot after the Ascot victories of Pallasator and Forgotten Hero. I just wonder if this is going to prove a sufficient stamina test for either and am tempted to take a chance on Luca Cumani’s Ajman Bridge. The Cumani team is also flying at present and 10-1 looks a good each-way bet in a tough opener.

It looks impossible to get away from the claims of Beacon in the Molecomb Stakes. He dismissed Mark Johnston’s Mukhmal with consummate ease at Sandown and should be suited by bowling down the hill at Goodwood.

There seems to be plenty of confidence behind Toormore in the featured Lennox Stakes at 3.05. He was a bit of a flop in the Guineas and in the St James’s Palace and I’m not entirely convinced that seven furlongs will see him in a better light. Gregorian has been a good friend to this column over the years and I cannot discard him after his terrific run in the July Stakes. All credit for John Gosden for even entering him in the race but I feel he is really closer to a miler.

Having gone for the Cumani horse in the opener, I cannot ignore Havana Cooler in the 3.40. He and Dashing Star have met several times and there is very little between them. He seems to take an age to find his stride so I’m hoping Adam Kirby drives him into contention at the top of the straight.

Ajman Bridge 1.55 Goodwood (each-way) @10-1 Bet365

Stomachion 1.55 Goodwood (each-way) @6-1 Bet365

Beacon 2.30 Goodwood @10-11 BetVictor

Gregorian 3.05 Goodwood @7-2 Paddy Power

Havana Cooler 3.40 Goodwood @4-1 Bet365

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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Things have been very quiet on the racing front this week following Royal Ascot but the Irish Derby and some excellent action from Newcastle and Newmarket should bring some entertainment. Punters could do with a break from all of the amateur dramatics from the World Cup!

Ryan Moore and William Buick dominated proceedings at Royal Ascot and it would be no surprise to see them both among the winners on Saturday. Moore has a full book of rides and is employed by seven different trainers while Buick is kept busy by the powerful Gosden and Appleby yards.

There are some speedy fillies in the Listed two-year-old race at 2.20 with Moore riding Tigrilla for Roger Varian. The favourite will be Littlemissblakeney who was fifth in the Queen Mary but Zeb Un Misa and Accipiter also look smart. Moore’s mount is just preferred after travelling nicely last time out at Haydock.

Unless the rains arrive, I think Battalion will be taken out of the Fred Archer Stakes which would leave the way clear for Gatewood and Buick. The six-year-old has done well to get back on track after his abortive attempt at the Melbourne Cup and could have the class to defy his 3lbs penalty.

Richard Fahey has finally resorted to blinkers for Gatewood in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes and it remains to be seen if that makes life any easier for his jockey. Moore managed to get him home at Goodwood last season and this should be the right trip. Gregorian probably needed his run at Epsom last time and could be yet another for Gosden.

Manderley looks difficult to oppose in the Listed Eternal Stakes having followed up her fourth in the 1000 Guineas with an effortless win in maiden company. Gosden and Buick have another fine chance with Seagull in the 4.40. She won over a mile and a quarter and was always going to find it tough dropping back to a mile last time. She did well to finish second and should relish going up to a mile and a half on Saturday.

Llanarmon Lad struggled with the camber at Epsom last time but finished strongly to be second to Abseil. Kieren Fallon did the pushing that day and Ryan Moore takes over in the 5.15 here. Most of the opposition have been running below par recently and Llanarmon Lad can go one better.

Tigrilla 2.20  at 100-30 BetVictor

Gatewood 2.55 at 4-1 BetVictor, Paddy Power

Gregorian 3.30 at 11-2 William Hill

Manderley 4.05 at 11-4 BetVictor

Seagull 4.40 at 15-8 Bet365

Llanarmon Lad 5.15 at 7-2 BetVictor, Coral

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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The weather put paid to my Goodwood selections on day 1. As soon as I tuned in to see the mist and rain I knew my fate! Fortunately Aljamaaheer was withdrawn in the hope of finding faster ground elsewhere.

I was hoping that Sir Graham Wade might also be taken out but he took his chance. I must admit that I find jockeys a law unto themselves at times. First time blinkers on and Franny Norton chased him out of the stalls as if it was a five furlong dash! Not surprisingly he took off and Norton spent the next mile trying to pull him back. Then, when the grey was well and truly shattered, he started giving him reminders! I can only imagine that the horse what the horse may have been thinking “Go, Stop, Go, Will you make up your ******* mind!”

Anyway, clearly we have to take the softened ground into consideration if we are to survive five days so here is a look at day 2. The feature race is being rather foolishly termed as the duel on the Downs. Sound familiar? Yes, Frankel versus Canford Cliffs (a bit one-sided as far as duels go). I cannot see it as a two horse race with Declaration Of War in the field.

Followers of this column will know that he swept past my two ante-post bets in the Queen Anne to deny me a 33-1 win payout on the afore-mentioned Aljamaaheer. I’d also suggested that Gregorian was overpriced at 50-1 and he ran a stormer in third. I think he may be overpriced again here at 33-1 but it is hard to see him reversing form with O’Brien’s colt.

Declaration Of War has since run a fine second behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse with Mars in behind. That was over a mile and a quarter but this is his best trip and there is no evidence that the three-year-old mile division is any better than the middle-distance horses. I think 11-2 is generous, especially given the softer ground, so I shall take him with a saver on Gregorian.

Whatever the fate of Gregorian, Gosden should still be among the winners. Excess Knowledge has an excellent chance in the Gordon Stakes. He took on older horses at Sandown on his belated first appearance as a three-year-old and stayed on well behind Mandour. They don’t look a great bunch lined up against him and 9-4 seems fair.

Much Promise lived up to her name on her debut when chasing home Sir Michael Stoute’s Along Again without being hard ridden. The winner ran well at Ascot on Saturday so the form may be better than first appeared.

JG can finish off a good day with the well handicapped Close At Hand in the 5.25. The daughter of Exceed And Excel won a poor maiden at Windsor easily enough but could have got in here with a lenient handicap mark.

Excess Knowledge (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Declaration Of War 11-2 Stan James
Gregorian (each-way) 33-1 Bet Victor
Much Promise
Close At Hand 8-1 Paddy Power

Royal Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes Preview

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After the drama of the Epsom Derby there is a bit of a hiatus with fairly modest racing on offer this week. Royal Ascot is the next port of call for many of the top class racehorses and now is as good a time as any to look for a little value.

The bookmakers have singled out Animal Kingdom for special attention in the Queen Anne Stakes, the opening race of the meeting. The price of the Dubai World Cup winner has been slashed from 11-4 to 13-8 with speculation that market rival Farhh may be heading to the Prince of Wales’s Stakes instead. Godolphin have stated that no decision has yet been made and this is not a bandwagon that I want to follow.

If you look at the placed horses in the World Cup they were Red Cadeaux, Planteur and Side Glance. They are all familiar names to British racegoers and it did not look a particularly strong renewal. Another factor is that we are talking about a straight mile on turf for the American horse and I think people are getting a little carried away.

If Farhh does take his place in the field he would certainly be a very serious rival. The way he stamped his authority over a good field at Newbury in the Lockinge Stakes was very impressive. On that evidence he is certainly among the best milers in Europe and Godolphin are clearly in two minds whether or not to step back up to ten furlongs. His price has drifted to 7-2 but that would quickly disappear if he were declared to run.

His Newbury victims included Sovereign Debt, Aljamaaheer and Declaration Of War. The latter was a big disappointment and no definite plans have been made for him. Sovereign Debt ran the race of his life to finish second whilst Aljamaaheer also posted a career-best. It would be difficult to make a case for either of them reversing the Newbury form but they could certainly run into a place. I’ve followed Aljamaaheer throughout his career to date and he has so far promised more than he has delivered. There didn’t seem to be anything wrong with his Newbury effort and this looks the logical race for him at the meeting.

Gregorian is an intended runner after his workmanlike success in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom. That followed up a decent effort at Haydock and I liked the way he responded when passed by the free-running Producer. Trainer John Gosden may have helped to ignite the gamble on Animal Kingdom by referring to him as ” a beast” in his post-race interview but I think the present odds are too tempting to ignore for Gregorian. He is available at 51-1 on Betfair and is worth a little each-way flutter. If the field cuts up, as it usually does for this race, he could be much nearer 14-1 on the day.

Aljamaaheer 33-1 each-way Bet Victor
Gregorian 51-1 each-way Betfair

Epsom Preview Friday 31st May

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The Oaks is the feature race of Epsom’s opening day with Secret Gesture set to go off favourite. Ralph Beckett’s filly has replaced Moth at the head of the market and the midweek rain can only have improved her chances. The rain could also help my each-way selection The Lark so I’m looking forward to the race with optimism.

The meeting opens with a tricky looking contest for the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. I’ve been following Sentaril throughout her career and she started her campaign with a promising run at Goodwood. She was held up by Graham Lee but he found himself trapped on the rails when the pace quickened and he had to wait to deliver his challenge. Sentaril ran on well enough but the winner had first run and held off her late challenge. You can make a case for most of the runners here but I’ll keep faith with Sentaril at 6-1.

I picked out Niceofyoutotellme when the 2.10 was priced up earlier in the week but he is now a non-runner. The money during the week seems to have been for Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett. The four-year-old has not been seen since disappointing in the November Handicap so I can only guess that they have him ready first time out.

The Diomed Stakes is another trappy little race where it is difficult to be too confident. I’m going to side with Gregorian who produced some top class form last season and looked as they he would be sharpened up by his outing at Haydock recently. I respect the claims of Producer who has won all four previous starts at Epsom and that’s a stat that it is difficult to ignore.

I will probably regret overlooking Gabrial. He did this column a good turn when winning the Doncaster Mile but then failed to go through with his effort at Chester. He looked a difficult ride that day and ran like a sidewinder up the straight. If Spencer can preserve his finishing kick he could probably run diagonally across the course and still win but I’m not prepared to take the chance.

Andrew Balding withdrew Here Comes When from the Silver Bowl on account of the firm ground and he has been re-routed to the Listed race at 4.45. His main rival looks to be Hasopop who was behind him at Newbury earlier in the season. He has since won a decent six furlong handicap at Newmarket and is the best part of a stone better off than at Newbury for two lengths.

Strictly speaking, Hasopop should be the selection but Here Comes When won at Chester with a bit in hand. The bookmakers have priced them up at 9-4 and 7-2 and I’m very confident that the race concerns these two. Earlier this week I fancied Heeraat at Beverley and rated Hamza the only danger. I don’t want to make the same mistake again here so I recommend splitting stakes on the pair.

Ante-Post Oaks
Secret Gesture 4-1
The Lark (each-way) 33-1

1.35 Sentaril 6-1 William Hill
2.45 Gregorian 7-2 Paddy Power, Producer 4-1 William Hill
4.45 Hasopop 9-4 William Hill, Here Comes When 7-2 Bet Victor