Tag: Brown Panther

York Preview – Friday 15th May

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Dante day at York certainly went the way of the bookmakers with the only winning favourite being in the two-year-old maiden race. The victory of Golden Horn and continuing uncertainty about him being supplemented for Epsom has left the Derby picture as murky as ever.

The final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup and that grand old servant, Brown Panther. He finally gained a well-deserved Group 1 victory in the Irish St Leger last season and was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup impressively. All ground seems to come alike to him these days and his stamina could see him home again on Friday.

Romsdal and Snow Sky are the young pretenders here and both were placed in classics last season. Romsdal won well enough at Kempton but I was disappointed with how easily he curled up at Newbury last time when challenged. He plugged on into third behind Arab Spring after making the running and I expect to see him ridden with more restraint this time. His Newbury defeat seems to have convinced connections that he would be better going down the Ascot Gold Cup route rather than looking at the top mile and a half races.

The opening two-year-old race looks wide open with several previous winners. Many of them won on the all-weather including New Road Side who made all to win easily at Southwell. That performance was more pleasing to the eye than the victories of either Delizia or Athas An Bhean and she gets the vote at around 6-1.

The second race on the card is a typical York handicap over a mile and a half. You can make a case for most of them but a couple of form lines suggest that Notarised could go well here for Mark Johnston. He was third at Hamilton last time out and finished seven lengths ahead of Esteaming. He meets that one on similar terms and is worth each-way support at around 12-1.

Top Tug and Ajman Bridge will be popular but don’t represent great value. Top Tug ran pretty flat at Newmarket first time out, although he will be better for this trip, while Ajman Bridge has not won since his second career start and yet has gone up over a stone in the weights.

Our final selection is Yasmeen in the 3.45 race. John Gosden’s filly looked very smart when winning on her debut at Newbury and the form has been boosted since. She can get the better of stable companion Sperry who won well at Ascot in the blue of Godolphin.

New Road Side 2.10 @6-1 BetVictor

Notarised 2.40 @12-1 Bet365

Brown Panther 3.15 @9-4 William Hill

Yasmeen 3.45 @5-2 William Hill

Sandown Thursday Preview

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There is a good card at Sandown on Thursday night with the Brigadier Gerard Stakes topping the bill. Although there are only five runners, it still looks a bit of a puzzle.

Hillstar is the obvious choice after running a fair second to Brown Panther in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester. That race was over a mile and five furlongs on soft ground so this drop back to a mile and quarter is interesting. I’ve never really been a fan of Hillstar but this looks as soft a Group 3 as you could come across and he must go close under Ryan Moore.

Top Notch Tonto will find his stamina tested here while Sheikhzayedroad and Sharestan have had their limitations exposed. The one horse that has the potential to develop into a genuine Group 1 performer is Remote, trained by John Gosden. He did this column a favour last season at Royal Ascot but has not raced since and that is a major worry. No doubt Mr G will tell anyone who asks that he will need the run but I’m inclined to chance it at around 4-1.

The second Group 3 on the card is the Henry II Stakes with several Gold Cup entries on show. Brown Panther won the Goodwood Cup and was eighth in Melbourne. The trip and ground won’t worry him and he is as honest as the day is long. Tiger Cliff was third in the Yorkshire Cup but they went no great gallop that day and I wouldn’t be certain of him confirming the form with either High Jinx (5th) or Camborne (7th). El Salvador has a high head carriage while Biographer has been very disappointing and the blinds are fitted here.

My best bet of the evening is reserved for the last with the reappearance of Abseil. I always take note of any lightly-raced four-year-olds retained by Sir Michael Stoute. A healthy percentage of them start in handicaps and progress to Group races and Abseil looks to be heading in that direction.

I was extremely worried about his draw at Chester last time out and it proved his un-doing. His cause was further damaged when he missed the break so he did well to chase home the well prepared Here Comes When. He was beaten five lengths so is only up 1lb for that run and he looks nap material.

Brown Panther 7.15 Sandown at 4-1 Paddy Power

Remote 7.50 Sandown at 4-1 Betfair

Abseil 8.50 Sandown at 2-1 Bet365

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Preview

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A couple of weeks ago I selected Dandino at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup and he did his chances no harm when winning the American St Leger. A tilt at the big race is now firmly on the cards for the six-year-old and his trainer Marco Botti knows how to prepare a horse for Flemington. Twelve months ago he saddled 80-1 outsider Jakkalberry to finish third behind Green Moon and the best price available for Dandino is now 25-1.

European horses have been travelling down to Australia with high hopes for many years but a win still eludes the Brits. Ireland and France have enjoyed some success and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is another raider from the Emerald Isle with sound claims. Although beaten by Godolphin’s Ahzeemah in the Lonsdale Stakes at York last week, he was greatly inconvenienced by having to make his own running. For a horse that stays in excess of two miles, he is blessed with a useful turn of foot and many of his previous wins have come through a telling burst of speed.

The post-race coverage was mostly concerned with Godolphin and whether Ahzeemah would be joining impressive Newbury scorer Royal Empire in this year’s assault on Australia’s greatest race. Ahzeemah was soundly beaten by Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and that horse could also be Melbourne-bound. Of the two, I much prefer Brown Panther who was second in the Group 1 St Leger as a three-year-old but is only now fulfilling his potential.

Also behind Brown Panther at Goodwood was Luca Cumani’s Mount Athos, an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year. He reappeared at the Sussex track on Saturday to run second to the in-form Harris Tweed and could be on the way back to his best. Cumani has twice saddled the runner-up at Flemington and felt that Mount Athos was the best horse he had taken over for the race last season. Two severe bumps ruined any chance that he may have had but, as a hold-up horse, he is always going to be reliant on a decent draw and luck in running.

The home team have the first and second favourite in the ante-post market with Puissance De Lune and Fiorente. UK racing fans will know Fiorente from his days with Sir Michael Stoute and it was no surprise that he ran as well as he did on his debut for Gai Waterhouse. He did his prospects no harm when finishing second to All Too Hard over an inadequate trip in April and his home reports are encouraging.

Puissance De Lune has gone from strength to strength and confirmed his well-being with a comeback win at Caulfield earlier this month. Although he has an obvious chance, a top price of 7-1 is not tempting with over 2 months to go to the race. Another former Stoute inmate, Sea Moon, is also high on the betting lists along with It’s A Dundeel but both horses could have other targets along the way.

You cannot rule out Red Cadeaux after his second to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The 2011 runner-up is likely to run off a similar mark of around 115 and he certainly has experience on his side. Whilst it appeared a decent race on paper, I am a little concerned that the entire field finished within 8 lengths of each other.

As much as I like Brown Panther, I am mindful of the poor record of British runners and prefer to side with Irish raider Simenon. He has all of the right attributes to run a big race in Melbourne and 25-1 represents a fair bet.

Dandino 33-1* (16th August)

Simenon 25-1 Bet365

Goodwood Thursday Preview

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I’m always a bit worried when I tip the same horse as the Tipsy Tipster. Not that I question his judgement of course! It just feels like the poor horse is carrying a 10lb penalty!

That was certainly the case for Excess Knowledge in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. Having looked as though he needed every yard when staying on into third at Sandown last time I was sure he would be sitting third or fourth but Master Buick decided otherwise and held him up at the back.

As we saw at Sandown, he doesn’t do anything very quickly so being messed about when trying to get a run was far from ideal. The Channel 4 commentary team was quite kind to Buick but basically he rode a poor race and should definitely have won. Whether or not it was St Leger form I’m not sure but there will be another day for Excess Knowledge.

My winnings from Yeager are slowly but surely making their way back to the beloved bookies thanks to Goodwood so let’s hope for better luck on Cup day. At first glance it looks a bit of a weak renewal with neither Estimate or Simenon in attendance. John Oxx has expressed the view that it is a better race than last year when Saddler’s Rock won and he is most concerned by Brown Panther and Mount Athos.

Of the two I much prefer Brown Panther who has never quite fulfilled his potential. Perhaps this step up in trip will be the making of him and he’s a fair price at around 8-1. I’m also going to support the German raider Altano who was sat out of his ground at Ascot and got going all too late in fifth. I’m hoping that the penny will have dropped for jockey Mr Pedroza and he will be closer to the pace this time (famous last words!).

There are some promising types in the opener but none more so than Code Of Honor. There was a lot to like about his Sandown victory and he looks the sort of horse that could wind up in the Cambridgeshire.

Ben Hall must be better than he showed at Ascot as he was well supported that day. The form wasn’t exactly franked earlier in the week and I should probably do Gosden and Buick a favour and leave them alone! Unfortunately the fact that he’s about 10-1 and the form horse Figure Of Speech is 6-4 leaves me no choice but to support Ben Hall each-way.

My last bet of the day is on Muharrib in the 4.50. I felt confident that he was coming to win his race at Newmarket before hanging right to the rail and finishing second to Law Enforcement. These three-year-old handicaps take some figuring out but I think he’s still got improvement in him and will be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

Code Of Honor 4-1 Coral
Ben Hall 10-1 Totesport
Brown Panther 8-1 Skybet
Altano 13-2 William Hill
Muharrib 8-1 Coral