Tag: 2000 Guineas

Newmarket Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Last week we previewed the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and came down on the side of Gleneagles at 9-4. Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien’s colt can be backed at 7-2 with Paddy Power on the eve of the first classic of the 2015 season.

Highland Reel has been diverted to the French Guineas having drifted to 50-1 on Betfair prior to the announcement from Ballydoyle. Stable companion Ol Man River has come from nowhere to be third favourite at around 6-1. We shall keep faith with the proven two-year-old form of Gleneagles and hope that the market moves are wide of the mark.

There is also a fine supporting card and Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can get favourite backers off to a good start with Top Tug. He is very lightly raced and matches the profile of previous winners of this race for the powerful Newmarket yard.

The Palace House Sprint does not look particularly strong this year and it may be worth taking a chance on Goldream to successfully step up in class. He was tough and consistent last season for Robert Cowell who is an expert with sprinters. There is a very disappointing turnout for the Jockey Club Cup with Telescope facing only three rivals.

He is top class on his day, as he showed when running away with the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. He won’t be at his peak for his seasonal debut and Pether’s Moon is the one most likely to give him a race on Saturday.

Henry Candy was a relieved man when Limato came out and won at Ascot in midweek. He sends out another potentially top class sprinter in the 4.20 with the unbeaten Twilight Son. He won both of his races as a two-year-old, including a victory over Desert Force. Richard Hannon’s horse came out and won well at Newbury but now finds himself 11lbs worse off with Twilight Son. Candy’s charge only just got up to win at Thirsk but was trapped at the back of the field with two furlongs to run and did well to make up the ground.

Azmaam was very unlucky at the Craven meeting and can reverse form with Rocky Rider in the 4.55 while Godolphin’s Greatest Journey looks the value bet in the closing race. He was only just denied by Cape Clear Island last time and could be even more effective over this two furlongs shorter trip.

Top Tug 2.00 @9-2 William Hill

Goldream 2.30 @6-1 Betfred

Telescope 3.05 @4-7 Stan James

Gleneagles 3.45 @7-2 Paddy Power

Twilight Son 4.20 @13-8 Betfair

Azmaam 4.55 @7-2 Paddy Power

Greatest Journey 5.30 @6-1 Paddy Power

2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The first classic races of the 2015 season are only a week away with the 2000 Guineas first up on Saturday.

Aidan O’Brien could saddle as many as four here but there is little doubt that Gleneagles is the one expected to lift the prize. He has not been seen since being controversially disqualified in the Grand Criterium at Longchamp’s Arc meeting in October. He was deemed to have caused interference to the second Full Mast and third Territories, the latter being set to re-oppose at Newmarket.

Gleneagles is a son of Galileo and has also been handed a Derby entry so he is following a similar pattern to Camelot and Australia. The money was all for Gleneagles a few weeks ago and nothing has really happened in the trials to challenge his position as favourite.

Stable companion Highland Reel was a very impressive winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last summer after winning his maiden by 12 lengths in Ireland. He looked more of a middle distance performer that day and could be joined by the unbeaten Ol’ Man River and War Envoy.

Andre Fabre plans to supplement Territories on Monday after coming through his trial satisfactorily in the Prix De Fontainebleau at Longchamp. He has half a length to make up on Gleneagles but connections obviously feel that he is capable of doing so.

The Greenham Stakes looked like an excellent trial on paper but is seems to have left us with more questions than answers. Estidhkaar has emerged as second favourite at around 7-1 after being beaten by Muhaarar who is still available at 25-1. That suggests that the Greenham winner may be heading to the French Guineas while Ivawood and Belardo were very disappointing.

Kool Kompany appears to have won a sub-standard Craven Stakes while Elm Park has always looked a more likely Derby contender. His victory in the Racing Post Trophy had all of the hallmarks of a horse bound for Epsom and you have to wonder whether he will have the speed for the Guineas. Andrew Balding would probably be delighted with a staying on fourth place here with all roads leading to Epsom.

It is difficult to see anything else emerging from the trials with a serious chance and this looks like yet another classic success for Ballydoyle.

Gleneagles @9-4 888Sport

Greenham Stakes Preview

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Saturday’s Group 3 Greenham Stakes looks a very high quality renewal and looks certain to have an impact on the ante-post market for the 2000 Guineas.

Richard Hannon’s Ivawood is a surprisingly short-priced favourite, although the yard have already won two Guineas trials this week. Ivawood suffered his first defeat when surprisingly beaten by Charming Thought at Newmarket in soft ground in October. He had looked a real Guineas prospect when winning impressively in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. If the defeat was purely down to the ground, he will be the one to beat but he is tackling seven furlongs for the first time.

Ivawood is not the highest rated in this field with that honour going to Dewhurst Stakes winner Belardo. Roger Varian’s colt produced a shock when beating Kodi Bear by two lengths at Newmarket in a first-time hood. Interestingly, there is no sign of the headgear on Saturday as he makes his first start in the blue of Godolphin.

He had been disappointing in the July Stakes when drawn poorly and again at Doncaster in September in the Champagne Stakes. Clearly connections felt that he was capable of better and the hood seemed to work the oracle. He reversed Champagne form with Estidhkaar at Newmarket and it remains to be seen whether the softer ground was key to his improvement.

Aidan O’Brien sends over Dick Whittington and a victory for the son of Rip Van Winkle would boost the case of Gleneagles in the Guineas. His case has been strengthened by the Craven Stakes winner Kool Kompany. Dick Whittington beat the Hannon colt by half a length at the Curragh in August. He was a beaten favourite at Royal Ascot in June on his only previous start at seven furlongs.

Toocoolforschool turned the Mill Reef Stakes into a procession when beating Growl by seven lengths. He had previously been beaten half a length by Nafaqa at Doncaster in a Listed race over seven furlongs. Karl Burke’s gelding made all when winning the Mill Reef and it would be no surprise to see him bowling along in front again here.

Flaming Spear was backed as if defeat was out of the question on his debut for Kevin Ryan and duly obliged at York. This is a huge step up in class for the son of Lope De Vega while Fannaan is unbeaten in two races for John Gosden. He beat the reluctant Hawkesbury at Newmarket in October and could yet represent Gosden in the Guineas following the defeat of Faydhan in midweek.

Belardo @6-1 Paddy Power

Newmarket Guineas Preview

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After months of anticipation, Guineas weekend is upon us! I broke with tradition by placing two bets on the 2000 Guineas before June was out last summer and both have made it to the final line up. That is an achievement in itself but I’m very confident that Kingman can win the season’s first classic.

2000 Guineas

Our ante-post book looks remarkably healthy. Kingman was advised in this column at 14-1 after his impressive debut while War Command was tipped at 10-1 after Royal Ascot. The latter has been overshadowed by stable companion Australia in the build-up but his price has contracted significantly in recent days and it would not surprise me to see him prove the pick of the O’Brien runners.

I topped off our portfolio last week by suggesting that Outstrip was over-priced at 56-1 with Betfair. The grey has a great finishing kick as he showed in the Breeders’ Cup and a repeat of that performance would certainly put him in the frame here.

There are plenty of dangers, notably Craven winner Toormore who remains unbeaten. He could only beat what was put in front of him that day and is closely matched with Outstrip on Goodwood form from last season. I’m happy to let our horses run with adding any further investment.

Kingman 14-1*

War Command 10-1*

Outstrip 56-1*

1000 Guineas

A huge field of 19 go to post for the fillies classic on Sunday and our hopes are firmly pinned to the Ihtimal mast. My regular followers will know that she has done us proud in the past and I see no reason to desert her now.

Her victory in the UAE Oaks was very impressive, quickening clear in the style of a smart performer. For some reason she has not captured the imagination of the betting public and is still available at an each-way price. I first tipped her at 16-1 and then followed up at 10-1 last week.

I did consider Rizeena last season but felt that Ihtimal was more likely to truly stay the Newmarket mile. I still cannot see how Rizeena can be less than half of the price of Ihtimal. Miss France was bitterly disappointing first time out and Vorda looks like a sprinter for all the world. Tapestry and Bracelet are more likely dangers but I remain confident in Ihtimal.

Ihtimal at 16-1 and 10-1*

*Ante-post advice

2000 Guineas Ante-Post Update

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The 2000 Guineas picture has been pretty static since Kingman annihilated his field in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. He is a best priced 11-8 at the moment and I cannot see him getting much bigger than that.

I tipped Kingman at 14-1 after his win in a Newmarket maiden back in June last year. I remember questioning my sanity at the time as I had already re-invested some of my Royal Ascot winnings on War Command. I cannot ever remember backing horses so early for the 2000 Guineas.

In the case of War Command, you’d have thought that going on to win a Dewhurst would have ensured his place among the favourites but not a bit of it. Aidan O’Brien’s glowing praise of Australia has left him as the clear stable favourite with War Command eased out to around 16-1. Hopefully he will still take his chance but there has not been much in the way of confidence emanating from Ballydoyle about his chances.

Toormore’s Craven victory was workmanlike rather than spectacular and he has been easy to back at around 7-1 since. You could make a good case for him as an each-way bet at those odds. He may not have been suited by having to make his own pace that day and at least we know that he is fit. However, his run just did not excite onlookers in the way that Kingman did.

There is one strange anomaly in the ante-post betting and that is that Betfair are showing 56-1 about Godolphin’s Outstrip. There appears to be a cool dismissal about the Godolphin horses as I cannot believe that Ihtimal is still such a big price for the Guineas and Oaks after her brilliant Meydan win in the UAE Oaks.

Outstrip was unlucky to be caught by Toormore at Goodwood as he hit the front plenty soon enough. Richard Hughes made the victory look far easier than it actually was and I don’t believe there will ultimately prove to be much between the pair as three-year-olds. Outstrip went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a late swoop and that is the style of racing that suits the grey best. He may prove no match for Kingman but he is no 56-1 chance.

Outstrip at 56-1 Betfair

*Kingman at 14-1

*War Command at 10-1

*Ante-post advice

Meydan Thursday Preview

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The Guineas meeting at Newmarket may seem a long way off to those of us sheltering in storm-lashed Britain but Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin are already sifting through their classic contenders. The meeting at Meydan stages trials for both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas and there are plenty of familiar names on show tomorrow.

Wedding Ring was as genuine a two-year-old as you could wish to see last season, ending her season by picking up two valuable sales races at Newmarket. I am not a fan of those races but Sheikh Mohammed won’t have been complaining as Wedding Ring picked up a cool £400,000 for her efforts.

She raced six times, beating Ihtimal on her debut before finishing fifth at Royal Ascot. Ihtimal went on to prove the better filly and is on my short list for classic success in 2014 but Wedding Ring improved as the season went on. She only held Oxsana by a neck over six furlongs but extended that to almost two and a half lengths over seven.

Autumn Lily was a bit unpredictable with three wins and two duck eggs in her first season. She is undoubtedly useful and it is interesting that she is rated 3lbs higher than Wedding Ring. I’ll side with the latter and hope that she continues where she left off at Newmarket.

Emirates Flyer is the form horse in the 2000 Guineas trial but this is an altogether tougher assignment with 18 runners. The son of Acclamation showed that he is not fazed by big fields when just failing in the Redcar two-year-old trophy on his final start. He had previously chased home 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite Kingman at Sandown. He did look a little outclassed that day but time may show that to be no disgrace.

There are lots of unknown quantities here including the two trained by South African Mick de Kock. Safety Check was also useful as a two-year-old whilst Figure Of Speech lost his form after some early promise. I haven’t given up on Nezar who can be forgiven his closing effort at Newmarket but may want further than this seven furlongs now.

Cambridgeshire runner-up Code Of Honor has joined the ranks of Godolphin after a promising season with Henry Candy. He ran a blinder when just failing in the Cambridgeshire and looks capable of stepping up into Listed class this year. This looks an ideal starting point and Kieren Fallon will be doing the pushing and shoving.

Wedding Ring @5-2 Bet365

Emirates Flyer @4-1 Bet365

Code Of Honor @9-2 Bet365