Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

York Preview – Friday 15th May

Dante day at York certainly went the way of the bookmakers with the only winning favourite being in the two-year-old maiden race. The victory of Golden Horn and continuing uncertainty about him being supplemented for Epsom has left the Derby picture as murky as ever.

The final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup and that grand old servant, Brown Panther. He finally gained a well-deserved Group 1 victory in the Irish St Leger last season and was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup impressively. All ground seems to come alike to him these days and his stamina could see him home again on Friday.

Romsdal and Snow Sky are the young pretenders here and both were placed in classics last season. Romsdal won well enough at Kempton but I was disappointed with how easily he curled up at Newbury last time when challenged. He plugged on into third behind Arab Spring after making the running and I expect to see him ridden with more restraint this time. His Newbury defeat seems to have convinced connections that he would be better going down the Ascot Gold Cup route rather than looking at the top mile and a half races.

The opening two-year-old race looks wide open with several previous winners. Many of them won on the all-weather including New Road Side who made all to win easily at Southwell. That performance was more pleasing to the eye than the victories of either Delizia or Athas An Bhean and she gets the vote at around 6-1.

The second race on the card is a typical York handicap over a mile and a half. You can make a case for most of them but a couple of form lines suggest that Notarised could go well here for Mark Johnston. He was third at Hamilton last time out and finished seven lengths ahead of Esteaming. He meets that one on similar terms and is worth each-way support at around 12-1.

Top Tug and Ajman Bridge will be popular but don’t represent great value. Top Tug ran pretty flat at Newmarket first time out, although he will be better for this trip, while Ajman Bridge has not won since his second career start and yet has gone up over a stone in the weights.

Our final selection is Yasmeen in the 3.45 race. John Gosden’s filly looked very smart when winning on her debut at Newbury and the form has been boosted since. She can get the better of stable companion Sperry who won well at Ascot in the blue of Godolphin.

New Road Side 2.10 @6-1 BetVictor

Notarised 2.40 @12-1 Bet365

Brown Panther 3.15 @9-4 William Hill

Yasmeen 3.45 @5-2 William Hill

Lingfield Saturday Preview

The Derby and Oaks trials are coming thick and fast at present and Lingfield is the venue for tomorrow’s classic pointers.

The Derby Trial at 2.55 has attracted just five runners with John Gosden’s Christophermarlowe odds-on favourite. The son of Tapit won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom by four lengths from Future Empire but that horse was left trailing at Chester this week. He was more workmanlike than scintillating that day and Frankie Dettori is likely to make a long run for home on this long striding colt.

Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore won the Chester Vase with Hans Holbein and are represented here by Kilimanjaro, a colt by High Chaparral out of a Dalakhani mare. He looked very ordinary on his first two starts at Gowran but was an easy winner at Dundalk in April. He was fitted with a hood for the first time there and the grey is currently 50-1 for Epsom. Christophermarlowe is well ahead on official ratings and can provide Dettori with another big race winner.

Whatever the fate of Kilimanjaro, O’Brien and Moore will probably collect in the Oaks Trial at 2.20 with Wedding Vow. She has been beaten by smart fillies in her last two races. She failed by half a length to hold Zannda at Leopardstown and was then second to subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo at Gowran Park. She is a beautifully-bred daughter of Galileo and nothing in this field has comparable form.

There are some more classy fillies on show in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at 4.05, a Group 3 race over seven furlongs. Lightning Thunder was runner-up in both the English and Irish Guineas last season for Olly Stevens but was a beaten favourite at Royal Ascot and Haydock. It is hard to explain her poor performances there but a lengthy break may have sweetened her up.

Kiyoshi is very smart on her day and Oisin Murphy rides her for Charles Hills while Al Thakhira is another with top class form in the book. The race will also provide some clues as to where the three-year-olds stand against their elders. New Providence ran a cracking race when just touched off in the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket and has Ryan Moore in the saddle on Saturday.

Wedding Vow 2.20 @5-6 Paddy Power

Christophermarlowe 2.55 @4-7 Bet365

Lightning Thunder 4.05 @7-2 Betfair

Faydhan to stake Guineas claim at Newmarket

The Craven meeting gets under way at Newmarket on Wednesday with a fascinating eight-race card. All eyes will be on 2000 Guineas second favourite Faydhan, trained by John Gosden. He created a big impression with a six lengths victory on his debut over Dutch Connection at Haydock.

That was way back in July last year and he was unable to race again at two due to injury. Gosden has elected to go for the seven furlong Free Handicap rather than the Craven over a mile. His four rivals don’t look Guineas class and it will be a major surprise if he is beaten.

The fillies take centre stage with the Nell Gwyn Stakes at 4.05. There are some proven performers in here and a couple of unbeaten fillies with great potential. Marsh Hawk is probably the pick of the field on two-year-old form but more likely classic contenders are Beautiful Romance and Lady Correspondent.

Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance won in the style of a staying filly on her debut and looks more of an Oaks prospect. I’m just going to side with Gosden’s Lady Correspondent who won a decent maiden in good style and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Moore has an excellent book of rides and can also take the £100,000 Tattersalls Millions Sprint aboard The Warrior for Aidan O’Brien. He may be more exposed than some of his rivals but I liked the way he sliced through a big field first time out and he will lack nothing for fitness.

Richard Fahey has a high opinion of Akeed Champion who disappointed in soft ground on his second start last season. He can make amends in the opener while it is difficult to oppose Brocklesby winner Ravenhoe in the two-year-old race.

The Feilden Stakes sometimes throws up a classic contender and there are some promising colts in action including the Queen’s Peacock. It is dangerous backing all-weather form on the turf but Festive Fare looked very good last time and can win this for Godolphin. Disegno and Golden Horn are others to consider in another excellent contest.

Whatever happens to Golden Horn, Storm The Stars should run well in the maiden. He was just edged out by the Gosden horse last time and still holds some ambitious entries. The closing handicap looks wide open but it may be worth taking a chance on Navigate who improved with every race as a juvenile.

Akeed Champion 1.45 @2-1 Betfair

Ravenhoe 2.20 @6-4 Bet365

The Warrior 2.55 @9-4 Stan James

Faydhan 3.30 @4-9 Coral

Lady Correspondent 4.05 @5-1 William Hill

Festive Fare 4.40 @3-1 Coral

Storm The Stars 5.10 @2-1 Paddy Power

Navigate 5.40 @12-1 Bet365

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

The Flat turf racing season continues its stop-start progress at Nottingham on Wednesday with an interesting seven-race card.

It’s always a fascinating time of year to see which horses have improved over the winter and John Gosden will be hoping that Forever Now has done exactly that. He lines up in the Barry Hills Further Flight Stakes at 3.40, a listed race over a mile and three-quarters.

I followed him with interest last season after he caught my eye when finishing second at Newmarket in May. He was very impressive when sauntering to an eight-length win in his maiden at Doncaster next time but only scrambled home in the March Stakes at Goodwood in September.

He was only considered to be Gosden’s second string in the St Leger but he ran a fine race. He led between the two furlong and furlong markers before fading into sixth behind Kingston Hill and Romsdal. The latter came out and won impressively on the all-weather recently and Windshear (fourth) won at Doncaster last week.

The best of the opposition looks to be Island Remede who ran on well behind Windshear last week while Cinnilla improved throughout the season for Ralph Beckett. Godolphin are represented by Blue Rambler who is something of an unknown quantity after one moderate start in Britain. Forever Now should take this on the way to better things.

Gosden also saddles the favourite in the following handicap with Sacred Act. He won over course and distance last year and looked a very exciting prospect. He was confidently backed to win off a mark of 90 at Sandown next time but never looked happy at any stage and finished fifth. Presumably something was amiss and it will be interesting to see how he goes off the same mark.

It’s a question of balancing potential against proven form in this one and I just favour the Doncaster third, Youartisonfire. He had no answer to Chatez in the closing stages of the Spring Mile but it was still a decent effort. He has run his best races at Haydock in the past and this is a similar galloping track. He should go well under Silvestre De Sousa and looks good each-way value at 5-1.

There are several other interesting races on the card and Gosden has Alkawn in the opener and Waady in the sprint, both ridden by Paul Hanagan. There could also be some improvers in the closing three-year-old handicap with the weights headed by Luca Cumani’s Noro Lim.

Forever Now 3.40 Nottingham @11-8 Bet365

Youartisonfire 4.10 Nottingham @5-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Kempton Park Saturday Preview

After the excitement of the All-Weather Championships at Lingfield, the flat racing action moves to Kempton on Saturday.

There are some decent handicappers in action in the 2.15 with the weights headed by Outback Traveller. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old has gone up 12lbs since beating a decent field by seven lengths at Ascot last autumn. That was by far his best run of the season and it will be interesting to see how he fares off this new mark.

Ninjago was runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last season but disappointed in Dubai this winter. He wore blinkers for the first time when winning over course and distance last time but the one I like here is Speculative Bid, trained by David Elsworth.

He has gone up 8lbs for a very impressive course and distance victory under Jamie Spencer. He missed the break but threaded his way through the field on the bridle and was only pushed out to score easily.

Queen Catrine was very frustrating last season after her brilliant run at Royal Ascot in June. She came from last place to force a photograph in the Sandringham Handicap but the verdict went to Muteela. She did not reproduce that form in three subsequent outings and is yet to add to her maiden victory at Ayr in 2013.

Wee Jean was just behind her that day and ran well again at Sandown next time before losing her form. Victoria Regina has run a couple of nice races in Dubai but I prefer to side with Lady Dutch, a comfortable winner here last time. Marco Botti does well with his imports and she looks capable of following up.

Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team up in the 3.25 with the lightly-raced Made With Love. He nearly made all on his debut last season at Newmarket and was surprisingly beaten at odds-on next time. Gosden gave the colt a lengthy break and he duly obliged in a moderate maiden over course and distance.

The Newmarket trainer does not tend to keep that many older horses in training unless they are likely to be top class handicappers or better. All of his rivals on Saturday are thoroughly exposed and it will be disappointing if he cannot kick off the new campaign with a win off a mark of 90.

Speculative Bid 2.15 @4-1 Ladbrokes

Lady Dutch 2.50 @7-2 BetVictor

Made With Love 3.25 @2-1 William Hill