Tag: Dawn Approach

Chester Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The 2000 Guineas victory of Sheikh Mohammed’s Dawn Approach has certainly raised some interesting questions and the colt is now 7-4 favourite for the Derby. The major concern for his supporters is whether he will stay the extra half-mile and the decision to go to Epsom has been taken more on his style of racing than his pedigree. I remember Jim Bolger saying he was going to be a Guineas horse after he won the Coventry last season but no thought had been given to his prospects of staying a mile and a half. About three weeks prior to the Guineas the decision was taken to supplement him for Epsom and that now looks to have been a wise move.

One another point worth making is that he beat a 150-1 outsider at Newmarket and it appears we may have another season with one good horse and a lot of moderate ones. Camelot was head and shoulders above his contemporaries last season but he was bred for the Derby. It will be fascinating to see what the breeding pundits come up with in the build up to the Derby but I don’t think that I will be taking 7-4. I will be happy to see what emerges from the trials in the hope of grabbing some decent each-way value against Dawn Approach.

It remains to be seen whether there is a Derby colt on show at Chester this week but the opening day revolves around the Chester Cup. I must confess to have become something of a fan of Countrywide Flame since he won the Triumph Hurdle a couple of years ago. He showed that was no fluke when he ran a fine race behind Grumeti at Aintree and I have since tipped him ante-post for the Cesarewitch (second at 10-1) and the Champion Hurdle (third at 33-1). The old expression about following them over cliffs springs to mind but I cannot help but fancy him tomorrow.

His weight looks just about perfect, he has a good draw, has won over the course and acts on any going. The only question mark is whether or not his run in the Champion Hurdle took the edge off him. He did run disappointingly at Aintree last time and he is almost certainly due a rest after his fine hurdles campaign. I cannot get too excited about the 7-2 on offer but there may be some 4’s or better on the day.

Ile De Roi and Simenon appear to have too much weight whereas Tominator was disappointing over hurdles. He is closely matched with Countrywide Flame on their meeting in the Cesarewitch and would be an appropriate winner in the week that saw the passing of his legendary former trainer Reg Hollinshead. However, he was beaten a distance in this race 12 months ago and is not guaranteed to reproduce his Newmarket form. One horse that is capable of showing improved form is Theology, now in the care of Steve Gollings.

Theology was useful on the flat for Jeremy Noseda but his form tailed off and he was eventually sent to Gollings to go hurdling. He didn’t take to the jumping game and was not knocked about at Kempton on his return to the flat. He may have been laid out for this race and could run a big race at a decent price.

Countrywide Flame 7-2 Ladbrokes
Theology (each-way) 18-1 Paddy Power

Newmarket 2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I am just back from a week away and have been catching up with the news. I thought that I had selected a pretty quiet week for a break but apparently not! The Godolphin doping scandal has rocked the racing world; most particularly Newmarket as it shudders at the thought of life after Sheikh Mohammed. Fortunately it seems that there is no immediate threat to his racing empire and Mahmood Al Zarooni has been hastily despatched back to Dubai on the back of an eight year ban. That all seemed to be dealt with rather too hastily and you can’t help but wonder what repercussions lie just around the corner.

It only seems like yesterday that we were trying (in vain) to work out the Grand National winner and here we are approaching the first classic of the new turf season! Godolphin may have lost the chance to run Certify in the 1000 Guineas but they still have the favourite for the first colt’s classic in Dawn Approach. He is trained in Ireland by Jim Bolger but there is no doubt that the Godolphin operation has been tainted by recent events and it would be ironic if they collect on Saturday. He was smart enough as a two-year-old but without a recent outing I am not remotely tempted by odds in the region of 11-8.

His victory in the Dewhurst Stakes was more workmanlike than spectacular and he briefly looked in trouble before responding to pressure to run down stable companion Leitir Mor. He was well on top at the finish but it did not look a vintage renewal. In third place that day was Aidan O’Brien’s George Vancouver who closed in to challenge before flattening out again in the last furlong. He has three and a half lengths to make up on Dawn Approach but put up a much improved effort to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf next time out. He was given a perfect ride by Ryan Moore that day, holding his position on the fence before being produced between horses in the short straight.

The chief market rival to the favourite is Richard Hannon’s Toronado. His front-running display in the Craven Stakes has seen his price collapse to 9-4 and you can understand why. Hannon rates him right up there with the best and he goes into the race fit and unbeaten. He also looks a straight forward ride and you would expect Richard Hughes to have him right up there from the outset. Whether or not 9-4 is great value is hard to say but he looks a major player.

Aidan O’Brien also runs Cristoforo Colombo and Mars with Joseph O’Brien preferring to ride the former. He looks tried and tested and the application of cheek pieces on Saturday does not inspire confidence. Mars is obviously a colt of enormous potential but seems well down the pecking order at Ballydoyle ahead of the first classic. I am a big fan of Garswood who did this column a favour when winning the Free Handicap in great style recently. Trainer Richard Fahey admitted that he had no idea whether or not he would stay the seven furlongs that day but he is apparently now full of hope that he will last the mile. As much as I like the colt, I must admit that it had occurred to me that he was a classic contender and I am slightly mystified by his price of 12-1.

Of the remainder, I like Moohajim but his run in the Greenham suggested that he will not stay a mile. He cruised into contention but found little under pressure behind Olympic Glory. He will presumably be held up to get the trip but it is difficult to be confident that he will do so. Toronado looks the most likely winner but I’m also going to recommend an each-way bet on George Vancouver at 16-1.

Toronado 9-4 William Hill
George Vancouver (each-way) 16-1 Paddy Power

Guineas weekend – Horse Racing Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Two big races take place this weekend, firstly, the 2000 guineas. On Sunday we are treated to the 1,000 guineas.

There are two horses i fancy very strongly, and unfortunately they are fairly obvious. Months ago i put Dawn Approach up at 7-2 to win the 2000 guineas, he’s now as short as evens in places. This unbeaten Godolphin horse trained by Jim Bolger is going for 7 wins out of 7 here. No prep run would normally concern, but when you consider the facilities available to trainers to train horses in race course conditions, i wouldn’t be too put off by this.

Toronado won impressively last time out and saw his price get slashed as a result. Richard Hughes was very vocal in saying this is the best horse in Hannon’s yard and he’ll have an exceptional chance of winning the 2000 guineas. I do rate him as a serious danger, and i will be doing reverse forecasts with Dawn Approach as a result of this. Nothing else in the race even tickles my fancy. I’ve done a small bet on George Vancouver, but i cant realistically see him holding a candle up to these two.

In the 1,000 guineas i can only focus on one horse. Hot Snap. I backed Sky Lantern big when Hot Snap beat him, my bank balance is still crying as a result. As soon as i saw the horse win i was convinced she was the one for the 1,000 guineas. I am going to leave that there, apart from What A Name, i cannot see this horse getting beat, i really cant. The 11/4 on offer now looks juicy.

Suggested bets:

Dawn Approach & Hot Snap double 8.92 Skybet
Dawn Approach to beat Toronado FC

Hot Snap to win 1,000 Guineas & Oaks 14-1 Paddy Power

All i would say is, i really fancied Camelot & Maybe last year, and did a tasty double. Camelot won, and Homecoming Queen popped up and caused a 25-1 shock in the the 1,000 guineas. I find it difficult to comprehend something similar to that happening this time. I may have blinkers on, but i still seriously think these two horses are the real deal.