For once, Sunday’s Arc looks worthy of all the pre-race hype. In recent years we have some outstanding winners but the field has often lacked a bit of depth. That cannot possibly be said of this year’s race.
Understandably, the Japanese champion Orfevre is the strong favourite to go one better than last year. Christophe Soumillon was given plenty of stick for his ride that day, going clear only to falter in the closing stages and finish second. In his defence, he did have to overcome a wide draw but he would certainly have won had he been able to delay his run a little longer.
Germany’s Novellist received rave reviews after trouncing his rivals in the King George at Ascot in the summer but that form now looks less inspiring. The favourite Cirrus des Aigles is running on Saturday over a shorter distance as he bids to redeem his reputation whilst the Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is also an absentee. There have been some moderate King George’s in recent years and Novellist was far less impressive next time.
Much of the attention surrounding the unbeaten Treve has been due to Frankie Dettori’s association with the filly and his unfortunate accident this week. Thierry Jarnet can hardly be regarded as a mere substitute having won two Arcs and ridden the filly to three victories himself. The worry with her is that she has not met the colts previously and she likes to arrive fast and late. A poor draw certainly won’t help as she will need the gaps to come at the right time.
The Prix Niel is a tough race to assess with little to separate Japanese Derby winner Kizuna, Epsom Derby winner Ruler of the World and Andre Fabre’s Ocovango. I fancied Ocovango to run a big race at Epsom in June and he may have been placed had he been ridden more prominently. The softer ground should be more in his favour than that of his stable companion Flintshire.
We know that Ruler of the World handles soft going from his easy win at Chester in May and it would be no surprise to see him running well on Sunday. I certainly fancy him a lot more than the supplemented St Leger winner Leading Light. Leger winners have a poor record here and I would be surprised if were good enough to buck the trend.
The horse that has been overlooked in the betting is the French Derby winner Intello. He is rated the main hope of seven times Arc winner Andre Fabre, yet is available at 12-1. The reason is simple. He has been campaigned at a mile to a mile and a quarter and the trainer himself has questioned his ability to stay a mile and a half.
He started his season off in the Feilden Stakes over nine furlongs at Newmarket and that race has always been regarded as a starting point for mile and a half horses. He was an unlucky second in the French Guineas but won the French Derby easily. His rider Olivier Peslier will be the winning-most jockey of all time in the Arc if he scores on Sunday.
Intello 12-1 Bet365, Paddy Power
