Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

Epsom Derby day Preview June 1st

We will finally get to find out whether or not Dawn Approach stays a mile and a half today. I’ve read many well-informed articles on the subject and the majority view among pedigree analysts is that he won’t. I have supported Ocovango (9-1) and Chopin (12-1) in the ante-post market and was hopeful that the ground would remain on the soft side. However, it looks as though it will be nearly good by post time.

The main supporting race looks destined to go to St Nicholas Abbey for the third year in a row. You have to admire Dunaden for his efforts in Australia but it’s hard to see him having enough speed to cope with the O’Brien horse. Having supported Chapter Seven in the ante-post market for the Royal Hunt Cup I am a bit dismayed to see him employed as a pacemaker here! It hadn’t even occurred to me that he would be given such a role. Obviously the favourite is going to be unbackable so it is a race to watch rather than bet on.

The Epsom Dash looks impossible to unravel but I’ve already put up La Fortunata as a speculative each-way bet after her fine run here last time. She has made the frame on all five previous visits to the course but this represents her toughest challenge. I’m hoping that her early speed will at least give her a sporting chance at 20-1. There are of course plenty of dangers including Ajjaad who pipped her last time. There has been a lot of money for Long Awaited from David Barron’s stable, a yard that are in cracking form at the moment.

Tim Easterby has previous winner Captain Dunne primed for another crack at this prize after an eye-catching run at Chester. He has also finished second in this race so it is no wonder he is prominent in the betting. Stable companion Confessional got no run at all last year and finished on the heels of the leaders and he too caught the eye at Chester. He was never close enough to land a blow but was not knocked about by Paul Hanagan and it would be no surprise to see him put up his best run for a while.

Looking further ahead to Sunday, the French Derby has attracted a large field with Intello put up as the early favourite. As a supporter of Ocovango, I’m interested in the chances of Bravodino who chased him home last time out. The colt is held in high regard at home and 8-1 could offer a bit of value.

Ante Post
Ocovango 9-1, Chopin 12-1 Derby
La Fortunata 20-1 Epsom Dash

Confessional 16-1 Epsom Dash William Hill
Bravodino 8-1 French Derby Paddy Power

Epsom Ante-Post Update

The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365