Tag: St Leger

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

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Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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There’s an old saying that winter comes in on the tail of the last horse in the St Leger. That will be good news for fans of jump racing with the season’s final classic due off at 3.50 at Doncaster tomorrow.

The race has a wide open look about this year with a 14-strong field and all sorts of form lines tying them together. Not that it makes finding the winner any easier! The distance is a complete unknown for many of the runners including the favourite Kingston Hill. He has only raced once since the Derby when fourth in the Eclipse and I have reservations about his ability to see out the trip.

The two that interest me from an each-way perspective are Forever Now and Windshear. Both have exhibited a willingness to keep battling way under pressure and should relish the final two furlongs. Windshear looked unlucky behind Snow Sky at Goodwood while Forever Now is closely matched with Alex My Boy and Kings Fete on March Stakes form. They should both give us a good run for our money.

The card opens with the Champagne Stakes and people have been getting very excited about Estidhkaar with a view to next season’s classics. We will know more after he takes on the smart Belardo tomorrow who impressed me when strolling home at Newbury last time. Admittedly Hawkesbury ran with a most peculiar head carriage in second but Belardo looks to have a touch of class and is worth supporting at around 3-1.

Muthmir was a ridiculous price for the Stewards’ Cup and seems to be one of those horses that attracts money every time he races. The trip seems spot on for him in the Portland and it could be worth taking the early 11-2 but I’m also going for Mick Channon’s Chilworth Icon at long odds. He fairly flew up the rail to win at Sandown and the yard have hit form in recent days.

Finally, my old friend Aljamaaheer gets to revert to a more sensible trip in the OLBG Stakes at 3.15. I was very surprised when it was announced that he would be campaigned over six furlongs this season but I suppose he has proved a point with a third in the Diamond Jubilee. He wore blinkers that day but they have now been removed and the going seems to be drying out nicely. That could just give him the edge over old rival Gregorian.

Belardo @3-1 BetVictor

Muthmir @11-2 Boylesports

Chilworth Icon @20-1 Betfair (each-way)

Aljamaaheer @7-4 William Hill

Forever Now @16-1 Bet365

Windshear@8-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

Yarmouth Tuesday 17th September Preview

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After a hugely successful Doncaster St Leger meeting (winning on all four days) and some excellent Arc Trials on Sunday, the racing is definitely of a lower key this week. Even so, there are still some nice horses in action at Yarmouth this week and it is well worth taking a look at the opening day.

The Nursery at 3.00 features three interesting contenders with the proven Dancealot meeting some promising types in Ghaawy and Solidarity. Sir Michael Stoute’s Ghaawy won his maiden without the jockey having to get too serious and is preferred to the Godolphin horse but Dancealot has done nothing wrong and could be a tough nut to crack. With the soft going throwing another unknown into the equation I shall pass this one over.

Master Of War should have the 5.00 in the bag after getting within a length and a quarter of Tropics last time. The other three runners all have plenty of ability but cannot boast a great deal in the way of recent form. I doubt that the bookies will be giving much away with the favourite so I’m investing my “hard-earned” cash on the five-runner Boodles Diamond Handicap at 4.00.

At first glance this looked as though it would be a clash between hat-trick seeking Thomas Hobson and easy last time out winner Battalion but I’m passing them both over in favour of Shrewd. The going at Yarmouth is officially soft and is unlikely to change a great deal before racing and this horse has won on soft and heavy.

It was his last run that alerted me to his chances here. Sent off at 20-1 under young Thomas Brown, he contested a valuable Heritage Handicap at Ascot. The son of Street Sense was settled in rear and that is seldom a good place to be in a large field at the Berkshire course. His rider seemed to be hoping for a parting of the waves on the inside up the home straight but it never materialised. He ended up finishing around four lengths behind Excellent Result without coming off the bridle.

Jamie Spencer takes over tomorrow and I’m hoping that he can follow up the armchair ride that he enjoyed on The Lark at Doncaster. With Thomas Hobson an obvious threat and Battalion also winning with his head in his chest last time it won’t be straight forward but I think 4-1 is great value.

Shrewd 4-1 William Hill

St Leger Day Preview

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We are on a roll after Lightning Thunder (5-2), The Lark (15-8) and Ihtimal (13-8). Followers of my regular column for a well-known bookmaker may have helped themselves to five consecutive winners on Friday including 10-1 shot Sir Reginald! If anyone had them in an accumulator donations are welcome!

That heaps the pressure on for the final day of the St Leger meeting. I would love to have stuck with the girls after the three flying fillies so far this week but I am entrusting the nap vote to a colt on Saturday. The horse in question is Godolphin’s Outstrip in the opening Champagne Stakes.

Anyone who saw the grey horse’s debut at Newmarket in June cannot fail to have been impressed. After a tardy start, he swept through the field to defeat stable companion True Story by a length and a half. But it was his second outing at Goodwood that marks him out as a seriously talented colt.

Racing keenly over seven furlongs in the Group 2 Veuve Cliquot Champagne Stakes at Goodwood, he was driven into the lead over a furlong out and quickly went two lengths clear. Richard Hughes was still on a high from Toronado’s Sussex Stakes victory and galvanised Toormore to cut down Outstrip on the line by a neck. Richard Fahey’s Parbold was staying on well in third place in going officially described as good to soft.

Parbold has since finished a close third in the Gimcrack Stakes at York whilst the fourth and fifth have both run respectably at Town Moor this week. One of his main rivals could be another imposing grey in the form of The Great Gatsby. He seemed to run in snatches at York last time and was possibly a little flattered by his proximity to Treaty Of Paris at the line. The betting suggests that The Great Gatsby will finish in front here but I wouldn’t be too sure.

Anjaal did nothing wrong when winning the July Stakes at Newmarket but that form has been let down since and all of his form is on a faster surface. Cable Bay ran on well in the Gimcrack and could be better suited by the extra furlong here but I feel that Outstrip will have too much dash for these if he is delivered late.

Our ante-post bet on Excess Knowledge at 7-1 has at least made it to the day of the race and it’s all in the capable hands of James Doyle. Good luck to him on his first classic ride in the famous Abdullah silks.

Outstrip 9-4 Totesport, Betfred

Doncaster Day 1 Preview

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The opening day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster lacks the quality of the remainder of the week and has been deemed not worthy of the attendance of Channel 4 cameras. It seems a strange bit of scheduling to start a classic meeting with a card that does not have a single Group race on the menu but I’m sure that the race planners have their reasons.

Once again, the weather is threatening to intervene with heavy downpours predicted for around midday. The going is reported to be good at the moment so I’d imagine it wouldn’t be worse than good to soft by the time they go to post for the 2.30.

The one I am interested in here is the Olly Stevens-trained filly Lightning Thunder. I’m a big fan of maiden races from Newbury and Newmarket and the daughter of Dutch Art beat a useful Hannon horse that had the benefit of a previous outing in Tea In Transvaal. That may not sound like top class form but it was the manner of her victory that impressed me.

She was held up in midfield before moving up smoothly on the near side and then quickening up to challenge the favourite. She ducked away slightly from the whip but she can be forgiven that on her racecourse debut and the trainer believes she could be a Group 1 filly. If all goes well at Doncaster, she may finish her season in either the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket or at Longchamp on Arc day in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

The trainer’s words suggest that nothing short of victory is expected tomorrow. He said: “From the first time we saw her at the sales she looked the part. It is too soon to aim her at Pattern company so she will run in a conditions race at Doncaster next week before looking to bigger pots. I would expect her to show definite improvement at Doncaster.”

Justice Day has the best form in the book having been beaten only 3 lengths in the Gimcrack last time whilst Expert represents the Hannon-Hughes combination. The grey by Mastercraftsman has had his limitations exposed in better company and may have to play second fiddle to Lightning Thunder.

With concerns about the state of the ground it is difficult to get too excited about the rest of the card. It will be interesting to see how Gatewood fares now that he is back in the care of John Gosden. His Australian campaign faltered after a rushed preparation to try to make the Melbourne Cup line up and he has been sent back to Newmarket in the hope of rekindling his enthusiasm. He may be a difficult horse to place now that he has exhausted handicap options so a watching brief is advised.

Lightning Thunder 5-2 (Ladbrokes)

St Leger Ante-Post Preview

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With the Epsom Derby form having been torn to shreds and the Irish Derby winner soundly beaten at Ascot, the market for the season’s final classic is looking wide open. Galileo Rock has retained his position at the head of the market by virtue of the fact that he ran on doggedly at the end of both classics to finish in the frame. He may well be the obvious form choice but he does seem a bit one-paced and must be vulnerable to something with a bit of toe.

Aidan O’Brien has not even left Ruler Of The World in the race with his belief being that the horse will be better suited by a drop back to a mile and a quarter after his dire performance at the Curragh. According to the market, Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is now exactly that for Ballydoyle. He certainly has the stamina for the race but he had to work pretty hard to shake off John Gosden’s Feel Like Dancing. The quality of the race is also open to question, although the runner-up has managed to win at Newmarket since.

Gosden may have a stronger contender in Excess Knowledge who should have won the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out. He made a belated seasonal debut at Sandown over an inadequate mile and a quarter and ran on after coming under pressure a long way from home to take third. That was against some decent older opposition in Mandour and Afsare.

Quite why jockey William Buick elected to hold him up towards the rear at Goodwood is a mystery to me. He managed to get himself boxed in when needing to get a run and it eventually cost him the race, finishing strongly in second behind Cap O’Rushes. The winner is no slouch having finished fourth in the Irish Derby, albeit as a pacemaker for Libertarian, but most observers agreed that the best horse finished second.

I was initially disappointed by the race but not half as much as the Gosden team as Buick returned in near silence. To be fair, Buick is one of the better riders and this was more of an aberration than a regular occurrence. He showed his true colours when riding a four-timer at Newmarket last weekend. I remember watching Conduit run a similar race a few years ago and he improved leaps and bounds by the time of the Leger.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes at York next week could tell us a great deal more about the leading protagonists. I am not aware of any firm declarations for the race at this stage but Gosden could run one of his Leger hopefuls, O’Brien has ten entries and Libertarian could make his reappearance. Excess Knowledge looks to be the one with most scope and can continue Gosden’s terrific record in the race.

Excess Knowledge 7-1 Ladbrokes