Tag: Excess Knowledge

St Leger Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We are on a roll after Lightning Thunder (5-2), The Lark (15-8) and Ihtimal (13-8). Followers of my regular column for a well-known bookmaker may have helped themselves to five consecutive winners on Friday including 10-1 shot Sir Reginald! If anyone had them in an accumulator donations are welcome!

That heaps the pressure on for the final day of the St Leger meeting. I would love to have stuck with the girls after the three flying fillies so far this week but I am entrusting the nap vote to a colt on Saturday. The horse in question is Godolphin’s Outstrip in the opening Champagne Stakes.

Anyone who saw the grey horse’s debut at Newmarket in June cannot fail to have been impressed. After a tardy start, he swept through the field to defeat stable companion True Story by a length and a half. But it was his second outing at Goodwood that marks him out as a seriously talented colt.

Racing keenly over seven furlongs in the Group 2 Veuve Cliquot Champagne Stakes at Goodwood, he was driven into the lead over a furlong out and quickly went two lengths clear. Richard Hughes was still on a high from Toronado’s Sussex Stakes victory and galvanised Toormore to cut down Outstrip on the line by a neck. Richard Fahey’s Parbold was staying on well in third place in going officially described as good to soft.

Parbold has since finished a close third in the Gimcrack Stakes at York whilst the fourth and fifth have both run respectably at Town Moor this week. One of his main rivals could be another imposing grey in the form of The Great Gatsby. He seemed to run in snatches at York last time and was possibly a little flattered by his proximity to Treaty Of Paris at the line. The betting suggests that The Great Gatsby will finish in front here but I wouldn’t be too sure.

Anjaal did nothing wrong when winning the July Stakes at Newmarket but that form has been let down since and all of his form is on a faster surface. Cable Bay ran on well in the Gimcrack and could be better suited by the extra furlong here but I feel that Outstrip will have too much dash for these if he is delivered late.

Our ante-post bet on Excess Knowledge at 7-1 has at least made it to the day of the race and it’s all in the capable hands of James Doyle. Good luck to him on his first classic ride in the famous Abdullah silks.

Outstrip 9-4 Totesport, Betfred

Doncaster Day 3 Preview

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So far so good at Doncaster this week with The Lark (15-8) confirming herself to be a top class filly in the Park Hill. The girls have been kind to us this week with Lightning Thunder (5-2) giving us a great start on Wednesday and we are sticking with the fairer sex for Friday’s card.

The filly I like in the May Hill Stakes is Godolphin’s Ihtimal. “Progressive” is possibly over-used when referring to two-year-olds but there is no doubt that this filly has got better with every race. She started off at Goodwood and had the misfortune to come up against none other than Kiyoshi. She actually gave her a run for her money and it was no disgrace to finish only a length and a half down on the subsequent Royal Ascot winner.

She was made favourite for her next outing at Newmarket but was run out of it by stable companion Wedding Ring, eventually going down by a neck. She was then upped in class and distance at Royal Ascot and took on the boys in the Chesham Stakes over seven furlongs. In finishing third to Berkshire, she split some decent colts in Bunker and Somewhat, both of whom have gone on to subsequent victories.

Ihtimal’s most recent performance was her best, storming clear to win the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. Interestingly she had Wedding Ring over three lengths behind in third and she was drawing away at the finish. The mile should prove no problem to the daughter of Sharmardal and I won’t be opposing her until she is beaten.

Godolphin also run Majeyda who was undone by the draw on her second start at Newmarket before bouncing back with a win at Sandown. She readily held a useful filly in Qawaasem by a neck and that form looks solid. I’m confident that Ihtimal will prove the best of the Godolphin duo but I am slightly wary of Richard Hannon’s Lustrous who won nicely at Salisbury on her debut. There is no telling how good she might be but this looks a tough assignment on only her second start.

Eleven horses have been declared for the St Leger on Saturday but I was a bit miffed to find that Feel Like Dancing was not among them. I’d tipped him at 40-1 a couple of weeks ago and earlier this week connections were said to be pleased by the ease in the ground and expecting a big run with William Buick in the saddle. Our hopes now rest on our 7-1 about Excess Knowledge. In the meantime, let’s hope that Ihtimal can provide us with a profit for the third consecutive day of the Leger meeting.

Ihtimal 7-4 Ladbrokes

St Leger Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With the Epsom Derby form having been torn to shreds and the Irish Derby winner soundly beaten at Ascot, the market for the season’s final classic is looking wide open. Galileo Rock has retained his position at the head of the market by virtue of the fact that he ran on doggedly at the end of both classics to finish in the frame. He may well be the obvious form choice but he does seem a bit one-paced and must be vulnerable to something with a bit of toe.

Aidan O’Brien has not even left Ruler Of The World in the race with his belief being that the horse will be better suited by a drop back to a mile and a quarter after his dire performance at the Curragh. According to the market, Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is now exactly that for Ballydoyle. He certainly has the stamina for the race but he had to work pretty hard to shake off John Gosden’s Feel Like Dancing. The quality of the race is also open to question, although the runner-up has managed to win at Newmarket since.

Gosden may have a stronger contender in Excess Knowledge who should have won the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out. He made a belated seasonal debut at Sandown over an inadequate mile and a quarter and ran on after coming under pressure a long way from home to take third. That was against some decent older opposition in Mandour and Afsare.

Quite why jockey William Buick elected to hold him up towards the rear at Goodwood is a mystery to me. He managed to get himself boxed in when needing to get a run and it eventually cost him the race, finishing strongly in second behind Cap O’Rushes. The winner is no slouch having finished fourth in the Irish Derby, albeit as a pacemaker for Libertarian, but most observers agreed that the best horse finished second.

I was initially disappointed by the race but not half as much as the Gosden team as Buick returned in near silence. To be fair, Buick is one of the better riders and this was more of an aberration than a regular occurrence. He showed his true colours when riding a four-timer at Newmarket last weekend. I remember watching Conduit run a similar race a few years ago and he improved leaps and bounds by the time of the Leger.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes at York next week could tell us a great deal more about the leading protagonists. I am not aware of any firm declarations for the race at this stage but Gosden could run one of his Leger hopefuls, O’Brien has ten entries and Libertarian could make his reappearance. Excess Knowledge looks to be the one with most scope and can continue Gosden’s terrific record in the race.

Excess Knowledge 7-1 Ladbrokes