Tag: Doncaster betting

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!

Doncaster Day 3 Preview

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So far so good at Doncaster this week with The Lark (15-8) confirming herself to be a top class filly in the Park Hill. The girls have been kind to us this week with Lightning Thunder (5-2) giving us a great start on Wednesday and we are sticking with the fairer sex for Friday’s card.

The filly I like in the May Hill Stakes is Godolphin’s Ihtimal. “Progressive” is possibly over-used when referring to two-year-olds but there is no doubt that this filly has got better with every race. She started off at Goodwood and had the misfortune to come up against none other than Kiyoshi. She actually gave her a run for her money and it was no disgrace to finish only a length and a half down on the subsequent Royal Ascot winner.

She was made favourite for her next outing at Newmarket but was run out of it by stable companion Wedding Ring, eventually going down by a neck. She was then upped in class and distance at Royal Ascot and took on the boys in the Chesham Stakes over seven furlongs. In finishing third to Berkshire, she split some decent colts in Bunker and Somewhat, both of whom have gone on to subsequent victories.

Ihtimal’s most recent performance was her best, storming clear to win the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. Interestingly she had Wedding Ring over three lengths behind in third and she was drawing away at the finish. The mile should prove no problem to the daughter of Sharmardal and I won’t be opposing her until she is beaten.

Godolphin also run Majeyda who was undone by the draw on her second start at Newmarket before bouncing back with a win at Sandown. She readily held a useful filly in Qawaasem by a neck and that form looks solid. I’m confident that Ihtimal will prove the best of the Godolphin duo but I am slightly wary of Richard Hannon’s Lustrous who won nicely at Salisbury on her debut. There is no telling how good she might be but this looks a tough assignment on only her second start.

Eleven horses have been declared for the St Leger on Saturday but I was a bit miffed to find that Feel Like Dancing was not among them. I’d tipped him at 40-1 a couple of weeks ago and earlier this week connections were said to be pleased by the ease in the ground and expecting a big run with William Buick in the saddle. Our hopes now rest on our 7-1 about Excess Knowledge. In the meantime, let’s hope that Ihtimal can provide us with a profit for the third consecutive day of the Leger meeting.

Ihtimal 7-4 Ladbrokes

Doncaster Day 2 Preview

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It was nice to get back on the winning trail on the opening day of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, courtesy of Lightning Thunder at 5-2. She may only have scraped home but she showed plenty of promise for the future and it will be interesting to see whether trainer Olly Stevens steps her up in class with the benefit of this experience under her belt.

I am hoping that another filly can provide us with more cause for celebration on Thursday in the shape of Michael Bell’s The Lark. Regular readers will remember that I picked her out at 33-1 for the Oaks in the summer and she rewarded my support when running on strongly into third behind Talent. She has only managed to get back on the racecourse once since then due to the fast ground. Michael Bell took her over to France but the race was run at a false pace and she could never get into the race won by Pacific Rim.

I think it is safe to put a line through that race and Bell seems optimistic that she can leave that form well behind in the Park Hill Stakes on Thursday. The Lark looked like a filly with a future when she won under Hayley Turner on Town Moor last autumn. She did not reappear until the Swettenham Stud Trial at Newbury in May and was again the victim of a falsely run race. She was held up in a race run at a dawdle and quickened up well enough in the straight without threatening to get to Winsili.

That filly proved good enough to win the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood so it was a far better effort that first appeared. Ironically it is Hayley Turner that could provide the biggest threat to The Lark tomorrow when she partners Seal Of Approval. James Fanshawe’s filly is nothing if not game and battled on bravely to win a listed race at Newbury last month. Those that finished behind her that day have done little for the form and The Lark should have too much class for her.

My one concern is that I seem to be a bit of a jinx when it comes to backing Jamie Spencer. I don’t expect the field to go off at a blistering pace over this trip and I’d expect to see The Lark held up in third or fourth rather than stone last.

The Lark 7-4 Ladbrokes

Doncaster Day 1 Preview

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The opening day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster lacks the quality of the remainder of the week and has been deemed not worthy of the attendance of Channel 4 cameras. It seems a strange bit of scheduling to start a classic meeting with a card that does not have a single Group race on the menu but I’m sure that the race planners have their reasons.

Once again, the weather is threatening to intervene with heavy downpours predicted for around midday. The going is reported to be good at the moment so I’d imagine it wouldn’t be worse than good to soft by the time they go to post for the 2.30.

The one I am interested in here is the Olly Stevens-trained filly Lightning Thunder. I’m a big fan of maiden races from Newbury and Newmarket and the daughter of Dutch Art beat a useful Hannon horse that had the benefit of a previous outing in Tea In Transvaal. That may not sound like top class form but it was the manner of her victory that impressed me.

She was held up in midfield before moving up smoothly on the near side and then quickening up to challenge the favourite. She ducked away slightly from the whip but she can be forgiven that on her racecourse debut and the trainer believes she could be a Group 1 filly. If all goes well at Doncaster, she may finish her season in either the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket or at Longchamp on Arc day in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

The trainer’s words suggest that nothing short of victory is expected tomorrow. He said: “From the first time we saw her at the sales she looked the part. It is too soon to aim her at Pattern company so she will run in a conditions race at Doncaster next week before looking to bigger pots. I would expect her to show definite improvement at Doncaster.”

Justice Day has the best form in the book having been beaten only 3 lengths in the Gimcrack last time whilst Expert represents the Hannon-Hughes combination. The grey by Mastercraftsman has had his limitations exposed in better company and may have to play second fiddle to Lightning Thunder.

With concerns about the state of the ground it is difficult to get too excited about the rest of the card. It will be interesting to see how Gatewood fares now that he is back in the care of John Gosden. His Australian campaign faltered after a rushed preparation to try to make the Melbourne Cup line up and he has been sent back to Newmarket in the hope of rekindling his enthusiasm. He may be a difficult horse to place now that he has exhausted handicap options so a watching brief is advised.

Lightning Thunder 5-2 (Ladbrokes)