Tag: Sir Michael Stoute

York Friday Preview

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Tapestry (advised at 12-1 yesterday) put Betcirca followers well ahead for the week following Dutch Connection (16-1) on the opening day of the York Ebor meeting.

Friday’s action gets under way with an impossible looking handicap over a mile and a half. Semeen is the likely favourite for the in-form Cumani stable but I’m slightly worried about the quicker ground for that one. The one I like here is Stomachion from the Sir Michael Stoute stable.

Ryan Moore produced another perfectly timed challenge on Tapestry yesterday but has not ridden his best races on Stomachion on his last two starts. He was well off the pace at Epsom and was never going to get to Miss Marjurie at the Derby meeting. He did well to run through into second place and it was surprising to see him dropped back in distance at Goodwood.

He was again held up at the back and never looked like getting into the race won by Sennockian Star. He could manage no better than eighth place but was less than six lengths away at the finish. He may also want a bit of give in the ground but I’m prepared to take a chance that he will perform better with a more positive ride on Friday.

The Lonsdale Cup is a bit of a quandary with question marks against several of the leading protagonists. Admirable though Cavalryman has been this season, he is too short in the betting and I’d rather support the lightly-raced Irish raider Pale Mimosa. She has a bit to find on her overall form but usually travels well in her races and could have a bit of improvement in her.

The City Of York Stakes looks wide open at 3.05 and I’m going to take a couple of each-way bets against the field here in Windfast and Ertijaal. Both look ideally suited by seven furlongs and the International Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks results suggested the three-year-olds are not such a bad crop. Ertijaal was not up to 2000 Guineas class but he is a decent performer while Windfast was a close fourth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes should go to Sole Power who has his ideal trip and ground. Shea Shea is probably better over six furlongs these days and likely dangers are Rangali and Cougar Mountain. The closing handicap can go the way of Sir Michael Stoute with Munaaser. I don’t usually like backing horses that have gone up 12lbs but he won so easily at Newmarket he is difficult to oppose. Maverick Wave had to make his own running last time and could give him most to do.

Stomachion 1.55 York at 8-1 Paddy Power

Pale Mimosa 2.30 York at 7-2 Coral

Ertijaal 3.05 York (each-way) at 10-1 Bet365

Windfast 3.05 York (each-way) at 14-1 Stan James

Sole Power 3.40 York at 7-2 Paddy Power

Munaaser 4.55 York at 11-4 Betfair

Salisbury Wednesday Preview

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Salisbury must be one of the most pleasant racecourses in the UK and Wednesday’s card is the highlight of the season with the Listed Upavon Stakes.

The one I like here is Richard Hannon’s Lustrous who finished strongly to take second to Bracelet in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. That form entitles her to start favourite here but she has since run poorly in Ireland and was only fifth at Goodwood.

I am prepared to overlook the Irish Oaks form as you sometimes get horses that just don’t travel well but I am a little concerned by her Goodwood defeat. There are a whole host of promising fillies in this race including the unbeaten My Spirit and the rapidly improving Kleo. Both should run well along with Godolphin’s Tearless who already has a comfortable course and distance win to her credit.

Richard Hughes won’t be keeping the video of the ride he gave When Will It End at Goodwood in his archive. Every gap he went for seemed to close immediately and he can be counted an unlucky loser. He is 4lbs better off with the winner Grigolo but that need not necessarily guarantee that he will reverse the form. Mark Johnston’s horse was not stopping in front and it should be close between the pair. However, I am hoping that Sir Michael Stoute’s Darshini can beat them both.

He made the running at Sandown last time out and Ryan Moore looked to have kept a little up his sleeve. The bare form isn’t outstanding but he can lead his rivals a merry dance here.

The same combination should be back in the winner’s enclosure half an hour later with Tercel. The gelding won nicely at Sandown, this time with Moore arriving late on the scene. He did not really have to ask for everything that day and there is plenty of room for improvement. Potentate looks the obvious danger for the Hannon and Hughes team.

Moore can make it three for the day when he partners Luca Cumani’s Petticoat lane in the 4.30. The daughter of High Chaparral ought to have won at Sandown last time out but was blocked in her run up the rail and had to switch to the outside. Although only fourth of five, she was beaten less than two lengths by the winner and can make amends.

Darshini 2.50 Salisbury at 5-4 Paddy Power

Tercel 3.25 Salisbury at 6-4 Paddy Power

Lustrous 3.55 Salisbury at 11-1 Bet Victor Non-runner

Kleo 3.55 Salisbury at 15-2 Sportingbet (each-way)

Petticoat Lane 4.30 Salisbury at 9-4 Paddy Power

Haydock Saturday Preview

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At the time of writing, the rain is apparently “pelting down” at Haydock on Friday evening and the going is already good from good to firm. That probably means some testing conditions for Saturday’s card and that means some careful consideration is needed.

It looks a good quality card on Saturday but there are almost certain to be a load of non-runners if the going turns soft. The pick of the form has been achieved on fast ground so it may pay to delve a bit deeper and find horses that will go in softer ground.

The first horse that stands out is Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House. He obviously has his problems as he is now five years old and this will be only his ninth start. He impressed me when winning at York last season in soft ground but did not reappear for a year. He finished fifth behind the well-handicapped Clever Cookie but did not have his conditions next time at Newmarket. He could start at a lot shorter than 6-1 if the going continues to deteriorate.

Nabucco is a horse that I have followed since early in his three-year-old career. He is tough and consistent but does not like fast ground. All things considered, it was a decent run to finish third to Amralah at Newbury last month on good ground. He absolutely hacked up in heavy ground at Salisbury last season and he could get a Group 3 success in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes tomorrow.

Hillstar did not look entirely happy on this sort of ground at Chester in May and I’ve never really been entirely convinced by him. True Story looks overrated and Nabucco can gain revenge on Amralah.

There are some interesting races later in the day, notably the Listed Fillies’ Stakes at 3.25. I am tempted to support Psychometry here but there is no real evidence that she likes soft ground. She was third at Goodwood behind Marsh Daisy but was well beaten. It was her eye-catching run at Ascot that makes her worth keeping an eye on. She never had an inch of space and yet managed to finish full of running within four lengths of the winner. She has a decent race in her, I’m just not sure that it will be tomorrow. Each-way might be the way to go.

Rye House 2.20 Haydock at 6-1 Bet365

Nabucco 2.55 Haydock at 8-1 BetVictor

Psychometry 3.25 Haydock at 10-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Goodwood Friday Preview

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Friday’s Goodwood card opens up with the return to action of 2012 St Leger winner Encke. The 25-1 winner put paid to Camelot’s Triple Crown hopes but has not been able to race since owing to a failed drug test. He has reportedly been working well over a mile but would prefer a bit of cut in the ground and will surely be a little rusty on his comeback.

The same cannot be said of Sir Michael Stoute’s Hillstar who will be  having his fifth start of the campaign and has finished runner-up in the last three. He seemed to do nothing wrong behind Cavalryman last time at Newmarket and renews rivalry with Pether’s Moon who finished just behind him. Ryan Moore can make sure that the Stoute bandwagon keeps rolling.

The second race pitches classic form against a mixture of promising handicappers and a real dark horse from Godolphin. The famous blue silks were notable by the absence in the winner’s enclosure at the start of the week but Rapprochement looks an exciting recruit.

He wore a hood on his debut and had the rest of the field beaten fully three furlongs out, eventually winning by 11 lengths. Of course, they could all turn out to be useless but it will be fascinating to see how he copes with the likes of Shifting Power and Lightning Thunder. John Gosden’s Wannabe Yours won by nine lengths off a mark of 84 and has been put up to an official mark of 100 so he too could be in the shake-up.

The Betfred Mile has seldom been kind to me over the years. It all goes back to a “handicap good thing” of Sir Michael Stoute’s called Desert Dirham who tried to overcome a wide draw and was just about on the floor in the home straight. I also followed Stoute’s Safawan throughout his career and inexplicably didn’t back him off a light weight when he won here.

I cannot see any Safawan’s amongst this lot but the Epsom form between Velox and Red Avenger is interesting. Both were knocked sideways by Abseil’s failure to negotiate the camber and they have good draws here. Velox has since won for the in-form Luca Cumani at Sandown while Red Avenger has done not a lot. Back them both to be on the safe side.

Hillstar 1.55 Goodwood Friday @9-4 BetVictor

Rapprochement 2.30 Goodwood Friday @6-1 BetVictor

Velox 3.05 Goodwood Friday @7-1 Bet365

Red Avenger 3.05 Goodwood Friday @25-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Princess Of Wales’s Stakes Preview

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Sir Michael Stoute has farmed the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes over the years and seeks a remarkable tenth victory with Arab Spring and Hillstar on Thursday.

For those of us with long memories, his first winner was with the Aga Khan’s Shardari back in 1986. Rock Hopper and Saddler’s Hall followed up in the early 90’s with Little Rock winning in 2000. His most recent winners have been Gamut, Papal Bull, Doctor Fremantle, Crystal Capella and Fiorente.

Of course, Fiorente went on to win the Melbourne Cup last year for Gai Waterhouse and it is not impossible that Arab Spring could one day line up in the great race. He has done nothing but improve all season, starting off in a lowly maiden at Kempton on the all-weather and progressing through the handicap.

Victories at Doncaster and York followed and he then defied an 8lbs rise to win at Royal Ascot last month. The race panned out perfectly for Ryan Moore as he sat handy before kicking for home in the straight. Unlike some jockeys who shall remain nameless, Moore invariably seems to have his horse in the right position. It is very rare that you find him trapped at the rear of the field.

Havana Cooler (third) and Dashing Star (fifth) at Ascot did not run badly at Haydock in the Old Newton Cup on Saturday but this still represents a rise in class for Arab Spring. His winning mark of 104 still gives him a few pounds to find to win this.

Frankie Dettori rides Hillstar who plugged on to take a remote second to stable companion Telescope in the Hardwicke Stakes. Some pundits will have you believe that Telescope is a champion racehorse but the bare form suggests he has some way to go yet. Just behind Hillstar were Pether’s Moon and Forgotten Voice, admirable horses but rated around 110.

My regular readers will know that Dandino was a long range fancy for the Melbourne Cup in which he came an honourable fifth. He finished only sixth at Ascot and you get the feeling that he is being brought along steadily for a return trip down under. Gatewood has been to Australia and lost his way completely but has gradually picked up the pieces. He lost out to Sheikhzayedroad here last time and this looks a better race.

I cannot pretend that 7-4 is a great price for Arab Spring but he is the logical choice to continue the great run of Stoute in this race.

Arab Spring at 7-4 Paddy Power, William Hill

Royal Ascot Friday Preview

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It is no secret that Sir Michael Stoute’s horses have needed a run this season to sharpen them up. Time and again we have seen his runners improve by up to 7lbs from their seasonal debut, Integral being a case in point on Wednesday when comprehensively reversing Newmarket form.

The Newmarket handler has a strong team lined up for Friday and will be very disappointed if he comes away with nothing. Bold Sniper ran a great race at this meeting last year to be beaten just a length by Elidor in a competitive handicap and returns in peak form for the Wolferton Handicap at 3.05.

He was given a lot to do first time out at Newmarket but cut through the pack impressively to finish third to Niceofyoutotellme. As with the rest of the yard, he will surely improve for that run and my only concern is the shorter trip. This race is over a mile and a quarter which must be a minimum for the Royal runner so I’m hoping they go a fast gallop. He will love the ground and may have most to fear from old rival Café Society.

Snow Sky was nibbled at in the ante-post market for the Derby after winning the Lingfield Trial impressively. A minor knock prevented him from taking his chance at Epsom but that may have been a blessing in disguise. The Lingfield form looks weak but he is closely matched with Derby sixth Western Hymn on Newbury form. He was having his first start when beaten by the Gosden horse and his rival may be feeling his Epsom exertions.

Stoute also has a massive chance with Russian Realm in the closing Buckingham Palace Stakes at 5.35. He made rapid late headway to finish second first time out and then bolted up at Goodwood. He was racing off a mark of 88 that day and is now up to 96 but Ryan Moore only needed hands and heels to secure a comfortable win.

With 29 runners it is impossible to be too confident but he won in the style of a potential Listed or Group class winner and looks worth a bet at around 6-1. I would be kicking myself if I did not include Radiator as an each-way bet in the Coronation Stakes. Strictly on form she ought to be outclassed but she ran too freely when just beaten at York and will also improve markedly. The fact that she is running in the Group 1 is a hint in itself.

Bold Sniper 3.05 Royal Ascot at 4-1 BetVictor

Snow Sky 3.45 Royal Ascot at 5-1 Coral, William Hill

Radiator (each-way) 4.25 Royal Ascot at 16-1 Paddy Power

Russian Realm 5.35 Royal Ascot at 6-1 William Hill