Tag: Nunthorpe Stakes

York Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Tapestry (advised at 12-1 yesterday) put Betcirca followers well ahead for the week following Dutch Connection (16-1) on the opening day of the York Ebor meeting.

Friday’s action gets under way with an impossible looking handicap over a mile and a half. Semeen is the likely favourite for the in-form Cumani stable but I’m slightly worried about the quicker ground for that one. The one I like here is Stomachion from the Sir Michael Stoute stable.

Ryan Moore produced another perfectly timed challenge on Tapestry yesterday but has not ridden his best races on Stomachion on his last two starts. He was well off the pace at Epsom and was never going to get to Miss Marjurie at the Derby meeting. He did well to run through into second place and it was surprising to see him dropped back in distance at Goodwood.

He was again held up at the back and never looked like getting into the race won by Sennockian Star. He could manage no better than eighth place but was less than six lengths away at the finish. He may also want a bit of give in the ground but I’m prepared to take a chance that he will perform better with a more positive ride on Friday.

The Lonsdale Cup is a bit of a quandary with question marks against several of the leading protagonists. Admirable though Cavalryman has been this season, he is too short in the betting and I’d rather support the lightly-raced Irish raider Pale Mimosa. She has a bit to find on her overall form but usually travels well in her races and could have a bit of improvement in her.

The City Of York Stakes looks wide open at 3.05 and I’m going to take a couple of each-way bets against the field here in Windfast and Ertijaal. Both look ideally suited by seven furlongs and the International Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks results suggested the three-year-olds are not such a bad crop. Ertijaal was not up to 2000 Guineas class but he is a decent performer while Windfast was a close fourth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes should go to Sole Power who has his ideal trip and ground. Shea Shea is probably better over six furlongs these days and likely dangers are Rangali and Cougar Mountain. The closing handicap can go the way of Sir Michael Stoute with Munaaser. I don’t usually like backing horses that have gone up 12lbs but he won so easily at Newmarket he is difficult to oppose. Maverick Wave had to make his own running last time and could give him most to do.

Stomachion 1.55 York at 8-1 Paddy Power

Pale Mimosa 2.30 York at 7-2 Coral

Ertijaal 3.05 York (each-way) at 10-1 Bet365

Windfast 3.05 York (each-way) at 14-1 Stan James

Sole Power 3.40 York at 7-2 Paddy Power

Munaaser 4.55 York at 11-4 Betfair

York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The highlight of the third day of the Ebor meeting is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. I previewed this race a couple of weeks ago and recommended the progressive three-year-old Moviesta at 8-1. Brian Smart’s sprinter has drawn stall 17 which looks to give him an advantage if the racing follows a similar pattern to the opening couple of days.

The place to be seems to be middle to high in the sprint races and few horses drawn low have managed to get involved in the closing stages. Having watched a replay of the King George at Goodwood, I felt that Swiss Spirit was a little unlucky not to finish closer. After a tardy start, he made up ground rapidly before being hampered close home as Moviesta jinked to his left. Trainer John Gosden was clocking up winners left, right and centre prior to the start of the Ebor meeting and got off the mark with The Fugue on Thursday. I think 8-1 is a good each-way bet for Swiss Spirit providing stall 7 does not prove an inconvenience.

Simenon gave us a thrill with our ante-post bet on the Ascot Gold Cup, chasing home Estimate in a thrilling race. The Melbourne Cup has been touted as a possible end of season target for the Irish stayer and he can book his place by winning the Lonsdale Stakes. His rivals don’t look to be blessed with his turn of foot and it should be a straight forward case of Murtagh producing him approaching the final furlong.

The Group 3 Strensall Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for Sir Michael Stoute’s Pavlosk to gain compensation for a desperately unlucky run at Goodwood. She was held up at the rear of the field, a tactic that invariably proved fatal at the Sussex track this year, before running on powerfully to finish fifth to Annecdote. There are question marks against several of her rivals including the hard-to-steer Gabrial and Chester winner Danadana. Hopefully there will be a strong enough pace for Pavlosk to cut them down in the straight.

Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne cut down her stable companion Party Line on the opening day of the meeting and that horse could be back for more in the opener. Normally you would question a horse running again so quickly but Johnston’s horses are a rule unto themselves. This shorter trip could be ideal and 12-1 looks a fair price in an open contest.

Party Line 12-1 Paddy Power

Simenon 13-8 William Hill

Pavlosk 3-1 Bet365

*Moviesta 8-1 ante-post

Swiss Spirit 8-1 Coral

Nunthorpe Stakes Ante-Post Preview

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Lethal Force may have established himself as the top sprinter in UK and Ireland with victories at Royal Ascot and Newmarket but he is not among the entries for the Nunthorpe. Sole Power and Shea Shea, both behind Clive Cox’s grey in the July Cup, are currently 5-1 joint-favourites but both have had plenty of racing.

Last week I was celebrating keeping faith with Moviesta when he won the King George Stakes after two unlucky defeats in top three-year-old handicaps. I was surprised to read that trainer Brian Smart was “stunned” by Moviesta’s performance. Having witnessed the horse fly jumping in his earlier races I always felt that he would settle better off a really fast pace and Goodwood’s five-furlong dash fitted the bill perfectly. He ran out a convincing winner with many of the season’s leading sprinters left trailing in his wake.

Three-year-olds have a decent record in the Nunthorpe in recent seasons with Sole Power and Margot Did winning in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Is Moviesta in that class? I think he is and he rates a cracking each-way bet at 8-1. Smart has already declared his intention to run and there aren’t any obvious ground concerns for the improving gelding.

Of the favourites, I respect Sole Power most because this is his trip. He too needs a really fast pace to produce his best and he could not quite sustain his run over six furlongs at Newmarket. He is going to be a threat if he can be kept ticking over after a long season that started way back in the spring in Dubai. I have the same reservations about Shea Shea and he races as though six furlongs is more his cup of tea.

Reckless Abandon has missed some key engagements through minor knocks this season but showed plenty of promise at Haydock earlier in the season. I still feel that six furlongs will suit him better than five and I think that was his undoing at Ascot.

Society Rock is the pick of the remainder after some consistent efforts. He grabbed Lethal Force on the line at York in the Duke Of York Stakes and is a tough, seasoned competitor in these events. I don’t see a threat coming from anything that finished behind Moviesta at Goodwood and I can see his price contracting still further before the race.

Moviesta 8-1 Paddy Power