Tag: Kieren Fallon

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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Betcirca followers had a great time on Saturday at Newmarket with a profit of more than 20 points on our five selections. Rosalie Bonheur (5-1), Elm Park (3-1) and Tiggy Wiggy (6-4) won the first three races before our Cambridgeshire selections both reached the frame at big prices.

The racing is of a more modest nature at Nottingham on Wednesday but there are a couple of handicaps that are worth taking a look at. The mile and a quarter Middle Distance Series Final at 3.45 sees the reappearance of impressive Sandown winner Raise Your Gaze.

Clive Cox provided us with a winner on Saturday in Rosalie Bonheur, one in three on the day and seven in a week for the Lambourn trainer. Raise Your Gaze is up 6lbs for beating Beakers N Num Nums by two lengths at Sandown and the runner-up has an 8lbs pull. In theory, that could be enough to bring them together but I liked the style of Raise Your Gaze’s victory.

I fancied the favourite Shama’s Crown that day but he was left flat-footed in third when Clive Cox’s grey swept to the front. With the stable in such great form, I will stick with him confirming the form. The best of the rest may be Donny Rover who is tough and consistent.

I am also going to recommend keeping faith with another improving handicapper in Triple Chocolate who is seeking a four-timer in the sprint at 4.50. Roger Ingram has placed him very skilfully to win at Windsor, Newmarket and Haydock.

He is one of those horses that is very difficult for the handicapper to assess as he only does just enough to win. He looked absolutely flat out to get up close home at Newmarket over six furlongs in August so was only raised 4lbs next time. Once again he looked in difficulty with a furlong to travel but kept responding to Jimmy Quinn to run down an in-form horse in Poyle Vinnie. He has been raised a further 5lbs but he is attractively priced and should give us a good run for our money.

There are plenty of dangers including the hat-trick seeking Amadeus Wolf Tone. It may be significant that Kieren Fallon is booked to ride him while Rocket Rob went into a few notebooks when flashing home at Sandown last time out. He’s unlikely to be improving at the age of eight but Willie Musson is a master at getting wins out these old handicappers and he has each-way claims.

Raise Your Gaze 3.45 Nottingham @4-1 Paddy Power

Triple Chocolate 4.50 Nottingham @13-2 William Hill

Epsom Oaks 2014 Preview

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Regular readers of this column will know that I have pinned my colours firmly to Ihtimal for the Epsom Oaks some time ago. I followed the filly as a two-year-old and was convinced that she was given an ill-judged ride when third on her final start.

She came out in Dubai and blitzed her rivals in the UAE Guineas and Oaks but still failed to capture the imagination of British punters and was available at double figure prices in the build-up to Newmarket. She ran a cracking race on the day but could not quite get to the front two. She more than covered our ante-post advice at 16-1 for the Guineas and we are clutching our 20-1 Oaks vouchers in anticipation of another big run on Friday.

Her pedigree, running style and dosage index all suggest that she will get the mile and a half. Silvestre De Sousa must be wondering exactly what he did to deserve being dropped for the classic in favour of Kieren Fallon but strange things are happening with Godolphin these days. Ihtimal has always struck me as an easy-moving filly that will handle Epsom and I wouldn’t put anyone off having another go at around 10-1 each-way.

Taghrooda is the only other filly that I would have entertained for this race but I missed the value with her. I wrote a lengthy article about the maiden race she won last autumn from which six or seven horses can out and won next time. By the time she reappeared at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly she was already down to around 6-1 and those odds were promptly halved after her easy success.

I believe that she has eased simply because the odds were a little cramped and she is my biggest concern. I’m always wary of Irish classic winners running in the Oaks or Derby. It always feels like an after-thought to me and I also felt that Marvellous was being scrubbed along far too early at the Curragh to be comfortable on the Epsom Downs. Tarfasha is still not a certain runner while connections ponder the conditions and none of the others have done anything to suggest that they can win a classic.

Amazing Maria has not raced this season but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her run into a place.

Ihtimal (Epsom Oaks) at 9-1 William Hill

Newmarket Friday Preview

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Friday’s Newmarket card should finally see the much-hyped £2.6million colt Hydrogen make his racecourse debut. Qatar Racing purchased the record breaking son of Galileo and placed him in the care of two-time Epsom Derby winning trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam.

A couple of relatively minor setbacks have prevented him from seeing a racetrack and it will not have been the plan for him to be making his debut just a week before the Derby. He still holds an entry for Epsom but he would have to win by half the track to take up that engagement with Chapple-Hyam likely to rely on Arod.

For those of us that are old enough to remember Snaafi Dancer, there must be some trepidation for connections ahead of tomorrow’s maiden race. Snaafi Dancer cost $10.2million and never ran, eventually proving to be a flop at stud. There will be no prizes for the headline writers if Hydrogen proves to be a similarly expensive flop!

In terms of a betting race, I am more interested in Wonderstruck who was third in a good maiden at Ascot behind Goodwood Oaks Trial winner Marsh Daisy. The runner-up has been beaten in a photo and the fourth has won since so the form looks rock solid.

Kieren Fallon seems to be flavour of the month with Godolphin. It is probably as much of a mystery to him as it is to everyone else but he will make the most of it. He has cracking rides lined up for Epsom next week and can chalk up another success aboard Famous Kid in the 4.15. Thirsk might not seem the obvious place to go for a Godolphin horse but a certain Farhh won the Thirsk Hunt Cup by six lengths in 2012 and he turned out to be quite good!

I am not suggesting that Famous Name is likely to prove to be that good but he can take the handicap off a mark of 91. Cloudscape could be the danger if he returns to his early season form but he ran too badly to be true last time out.

Earlier in the day I like the chances of Much Promise in the six-furlong handicap. The daughter of Invincible Spirit ran into some useful sorts as a juvenile, finishing behind Along Again, Valonia and Magnus Maximus. She made no mistake at Kempton in November over this trip and looks on a decent mark

Much Promise 2.30 Newmarket at 6-1 Ladbrokes

Wonderstruck 3.05 Newmarket

Famous Kid 4.15 Newmarket at 9-2 Coral, William Hill

Yarmouth 19th September Preview

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I was considering previewing the opening day of the Western meeting at Ayr but a quick glance at the card suggests winners are going to be hard to come by. There are no less than six fiendishly difficult handicaps on Thursday’s card and that may be the pattern for the rest of the week. There are no less than 200 horses left in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday, admittedly many of them hoping to get into the Silver or Bronze Cup.

The race that interests me is the two-year-old maiden at 2.50 at Yarmouth. Luca Cumani is not exactly well-known for his precocious youngsters and Mount Logan is certainly not that. He has had just one outing to date, finishing fourth in the maiden at Newbury won by John Gosden’s Muwaary. The form of the race has not exactly churned out winner after winner but Tuesday’s winner Ghaawy was well behind him that day.

He was ridden by Kirsty Milczarek and sent off at 25-1, suggesting that not a lot was expected of him on his debut. The chestnut settled nicely in rear and made eye-catching late progress to snatch fourth on the line. That race was over seven furlongs and there’s every reason to believe that the mile at Yarmouth will bring about further improvement.

The twin dangers carry the all blue of Godolphin. Istikshaf also showed promise on his debut when staying on into fifth place at Newmarket. That race was won by 33-1 shot Learaig and the form is no more inspiring than the Newbury race. I just prefer the effort of the Cumani horse who should also benefit from the stronger handling of Ryan Moore.

The unknown quantity is Charlie Appleby’s Deadly Approach for whom Kieren Fallon has been booked. As his name suggests, he is by New Approach but I note that he is fitted with a hood for his taste of racecourse action. I cannot say that I have noticed that very often with any two-year-olds, let alone Godolphin. Grand Meister and Latin Charm are also unraced but come from stables not particularly noted for first-time-out winners.

Mount Logan

Wednesday 1st May Horse Racing Tips

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Good old Mubtadi, did us yet another favour. That’s the 3rd time he’s got up for us, another cheeky hands and heels ride by Thomas Brown who oozed confidence. Awesomeness.

There are two horses i quite like today, cheeky double maybe?

Rockalong – NAP – 16:45 Ascot – 11/4 VCBet

This horse was tipped up by us before, and went off a well backed favourite at Kempton last time out. He won the race in some style under todays pilot and despite a 5lb rise in the weights, and a switch to turf(slight lie, his maiden was on turf where he was tailed off, this is his first proper attempt at turf in a higher grade), he could be progressing quite nicely.

Stuccodor – NB – 17:15 Tipperery – 11/8 Bet365

A nicely progressive horse that turned a 10f race at Leopardstown into a precession last time. He handles testing ground and while he would probably prefer a longer trip, this shorter distance tonight shouldn’t inconvenience him and has to be strongly considered for this contest.

VCBet £10 double pays £84.38 – Sounds good to us!

Newbury Spring Cup Preview

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The Lincoln form comes under scrutiny this weekend as several of the leading protagonists renew rivalry in the Newbury Spring Cup. Levitate came out on top at Town Moor from the fast finishing Global Village with Brae Hill just behind in third and Justonefortheroad fourth. Admittedly you covered all four with a large blanket and Chapter Seven (6th) wasn’t far away either. It could be argued that the form may not amount to much with such a bunched finish but there are reasons for believing otherwise.

It was the performance of Global Village that stood out for me. He was held up at the back by jockey Martin Lane and looked to have an impossible task two furlongs out. However, he picked up remarkably well and would have won in another stride. The eight-year-old had gone into a few notebooks when not gaining the clearest of runs in the Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial, eventually finishing sixth to Strictly Silver and Guest Of Honour. On that basis, he was a quietly fancied 14-1 shot in the Lincoln and produced a career best effort. It may seem unlikely that he would be improving at this stage of his career but he finished third in this race 12 months ago behind Captain Bertie and looks primed for another big run. The booking of Kieren Fallon suggests that he is strongly fancied on Saturday and the 11-1 available with Totesport looks good value.

There are plenty of dangers including Spring Mile winner Educate and a big field won’t make it easy for Fallon to weave his way through. Richard Fahey’s stable remains in fine form so you would expect Brae Hill and Justonefortheroad to be competitive once again but I will side with Global Village on this occasion.

I previewed the Scottish National last week and, as expected, most of the horses that ran at Aintree have been withdrawn. Two of my original selections have stood their ground with Quentin Collonges and Mr Moss advised at 14-1 and 20-1 respectively. At the time of writing it is still the plan to run Aurora’s Encore under his big weight but he could be withdrawn if the going turns soft.

The main racing story today is the retirement of Black Caviar. The mare has been retired to the paddocks having remained unbeaten in 25 races including the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer. The announcement came as a surprise to many and dashes hopes of seeing her return to Britain. When you consider the journey that she had to make, the injuries she sustained during the race and the fact that the jockey eased up too soon, her victory at the Royal meeting was no mean achievement. I think she was unfairly compared to Frankel by the racing press and did not receive the acclaim that she deserved that day. Both are now consigned to the history books as we look forward to some new stars on the racing scene.

Global Village 11-1 Newbury Spring Cup Totesport