Tag: Lincoln Handicap

Lincoln Handicap – Ante-post Update

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In last week’s Lincoln preview we recommended Zarwaan at 12-1 and he is now a top-priced 10-1 with Bet Victor.

Mange All and Gm Hopkins continue to dominate the market for William Haggas and John Gosden. Both stables have a fine record in the race so they should certainly give their supporters a run for their money. I don’t think that there can be much value left at odds of 11-2 and 7-1 respectively so I’ve been looking further down the weights in the hope of unearthing an each-way alternative.

With recent winners returned at 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1, we know from experience that the market can get this race badly wrong. The draw is another factor to take into account, although that too is something of a mystery. Most pundits had satisfied themselves that a middle to high draw is ideal. Lo and behold, the winner Ocean Tempest emerged from stall 3 last season.

One horse that does catch my eye is Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Buckstay. I tipped him for last season’s Cambridgeshire and he ran a fine race to be fourth behind Bronze Angel. He is now a staggering 16lbs better off with the winner.

Maxime Guyon rode him that day and hit the front over a furlong from home before being swamped in the closing stages. He again clashed with Bronze Angel at Ascot in heavy ground in the Balmoral Handicap but the draw gave him no chance that day. He finished third on his side but was only ninth overall and that run can be safely ignored.

Buckstay has some form with cut in the ground but does not look as though he appreciates extremes of going. Cam Hardie has been booked for the ride and he takes off a handy 3lbs. With a massive 93 horses left in, Buckstay may not get a run from 33 in the handicap but we can take a bit of the 25-1 and get a refund if he is balloted out.

It looks as though Bronze Angel will carry top weight for Marcus Tregoning with Ocean Tempest just below him, attempting to repeat last year’s triumph. The three market leaders are safely in the top of the handicap and Richard Fahey hopes to run three including both Gabrial’s Kaka and Gabrial. It’s anybody’s guess how Gabrial will cope with this large field but Gabrial’s Kaka should go well. Fahey is optimistic about his chances and 14-1 represents fair value.

Zarwaan @12-1*

Buckstay @25-1 BetVictor (non-runner – no bet)

Gabrial’s Kaka @14-1 William Hill

*Ante-post

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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Flat racing takes centre stage on Saturday with the Lincoln heralding the start of the new flat turf season in the UK and the Dubai World Cup meeting providing some top quality action from Dubai.

I must admit that I’ve never really been convinced by the Dubai World Cup meeting. It is too early in the year for many of the top stables to run their horses and has the feel of a private garden party for Sheikh Mohammed. However, I take my hat off to him this year as the card has much more strength in depth with at least three excellent races.

My methods for Doncaster used to be to look out for horses that were fit from the jumps. The going is usually soft (as it is again this year) and only the fittest horses finish their races. That is why you get horses beaten twenty and thirty lengths over a mile! The only exception was Barry Hills who used to love this meeting and always seemed to have two or three ready to go in first time out.

I’d like to think that John Gosden has a similar approach as he has certainly mastered the Lincoln over the years. He isn’t represented this year but he does run a couple on the card and they may be worth a look. Fencing has always threatened to win a big race and kicks off another campaign in the Listed Doncaster Mile.

After finishing third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy in 2011, the chestnut ran in the Guineas, the Dante Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes as a three-year-old. Gosden is the ultimate pessimist so he must have faith in the horse to keep him in training for another year. I’m worried about Graphic who did us a couple of good turns last season. He progressed through the handicap and ran a blinder in the Cambridgeshire under the near rail to finish fourth.

Gosden’s other runner is Romsdal in the maiden, by Halling out of a Singspiel mare. He may struggle to get the better of the street-wise Hymenaios who represents the Hannon Jnr stable.

Brae Hill was balloted out of the Lincoln so cannot add to his impressive record of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Don’t forget, if you backed him ante-post you get your money back. I would re-invest on him for the Spring Cup but trainer Richard Fahey suggested that he was not as far forward as usual this year so I’ll pass him over. Gabrial’s Kaka is our ante-post hope for the big race and should run well for the same yard.

If you haven’t had a bet on the National yet, Big Shu is still available at 40-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and is my best long shot. Peter Buchanan has been booked to ride so it looks like all systems go.

Ante-Post Gabrial’s Kaka at 16-1

Ante-Post Big Shu at 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Fencing at 3-1 Paddy Power

Lincoln Handicap Preview

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No sooner has the dust settled on the Cheltenham festival than we are looking forward to the start of a new flat season. Doncaster’s traditional curtain raiser is only a little over a week away, the Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile.

I haven’t often become involved in the race because it is basically a lottery with the runners either returning from a lengthy absence or having been toiling away on the all-weather. Factors such as the ground and the draw can destroy the best laid plans, although John Gosden has been successful in navigating his way through that particular minefield.

Unfortunately the Newmarket maestro hasn’t got an entry this year and that is probably why the bookies are still going 14-1 the field. Interestingly, that dubious honour goes to Richard Fahey’s Gabrial’s Kaka. Fahey has six entries including Brae Hill who simply loves this race.

He first ran in the race in 2011 where he ran prominently on the stands side under Jamie Spencer, being collared by Sweet Lightning. The following year he just held on by a short-head from the fast finishing Mull of Killough. He was back again last year, this time finishing only a short-neck away third behind Levitate in a blanket finish.

He put up some other fine efforts last season, winning at Sandown and finishing second at Chester and Ayr. You can ignore his last run behind Graphic at York as he was probably over the top by then. This is his time of year and at 20-1 he stands out as one to keep on the right side of.

Fahey has five other runners including Gabrial’s Kaka who was second to Seek Again at York in October. His prominent position in the market suggests he is fancied. Brae Hill is currently at number 45 and there is a maximum field of 22. Gabrial’s Kaka looks certain to get in at number 25 and races in the same colours of Dr Marwan Koukash.

He ran a sound race behind Seek Again but he did seem to carry his head slightly awkwardly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a visor or cheek pieces applied for the first time at Doncaster. Captain Cat represents Roger Charlton but he seems to have been handicapped up to the hilt on his all-weather form. Jeremy Noseda’s Consign has bits and pieces of form including a decent Ascot win while Brownsea Brink ran up a sequence for Richard Hannon last season.

We’ll put our faith in the Fahey duo for now and wait with interest to see how the trainer’s plans unfold.

Gabrial’s Kaka at 16-1 Racebets

Brae Hill at 20-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Newbury Spring Cup Preview

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The Lincoln form comes under scrutiny this weekend as several of the leading protagonists renew rivalry in the Newbury Spring Cup. Levitate came out on top at Town Moor from the fast finishing Global Village with Brae Hill just behind in third and Justonefortheroad fourth. Admittedly you covered all four with a large blanket and Chapter Seven (6th) wasn’t far away either. It could be argued that the form may not amount to much with such a bunched finish but there are reasons for believing otherwise.

It was the performance of Global Village that stood out for me. He was held up at the back by jockey Martin Lane and looked to have an impossible task two furlongs out. However, he picked up remarkably well and would have won in another stride. The eight-year-old had gone into a few notebooks when not gaining the clearest of runs in the Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial, eventually finishing sixth to Strictly Silver and Guest Of Honour. On that basis, he was a quietly fancied 14-1 shot in the Lincoln and produced a career best effort. It may seem unlikely that he would be improving at this stage of his career but he finished third in this race 12 months ago behind Captain Bertie and looks primed for another big run. The booking of Kieren Fallon suggests that he is strongly fancied on Saturday and the 11-1 available with Totesport looks good value.

There are plenty of dangers including Spring Mile winner Educate and a big field won’t make it easy for Fallon to weave his way through. Richard Fahey’s stable remains in fine form so you would expect Brae Hill and Justonefortheroad to be competitive once again but I will side with Global Village on this occasion.

I previewed the Scottish National last week and, as expected, most of the horses that ran at Aintree have been withdrawn. Two of my original selections have stood their ground with Quentin Collonges and Mr Moss advised at 14-1 and 20-1 respectively. At the time of writing it is still the plan to run Aurora’s Encore under his big weight but he could be withdrawn if the going turns soft.

The main racing story today is the retirement of Black Caviar. The mare has been retired to the paddocks having remained unbeaten in 25 races including the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer. The announcement came as a surprise to many and dashes hopes of seeing her return to Britain. When you consider the journey that she had to make, the injuries she sustained during the race and the fact that the jockey eased up too soon, her victory at the Royal meeting was no mean achievement. I think she was unfairly compared to Frankel by the racing press and did not receive the acclaim that she deserved that day. Both are now consigned to the history books as we look forward to some new stars on the racing scene.

Global Village 11-1 Newbury Spring Cup Totesport