Regular readers of this column will know that I have pinned my colours firmly to Ihtimal for the Epsom Oaks some time ago. I followed the filly as a two-year-old and was convinced that she was given an ill-judged ride when third on her final start.
She came out in Dubai and blitzed her rivals in the UAE Guineas and Oaks but still failed to capture the imagination of British punters and was available at double figure prices in the build-up to Newmarket. She ran a cracking race on the day but could not quite get to the front two. She more than covered our ante-post advice at 16-1 for the Guineas and we are clutching our 20-1 Oaks vouchers in anticipation of another big run on Friday.
Her pedigree, running style and dosage index all suggest that she will get the mile and a half. Silvestre De Sousa must be wondering exactly what he did to deserve being dropped for the classic in favour of Kieren Fallon but strange things are happening with Godolphin these days. Ihtimal has always struck me as an easy-moving filly that will handle Epsom and I wouldn’t put anyone off having another go at around 10-1 each-way.
Taghrooda is the only other filly that I would have entertained for this race but I missed the value with her. I wrote a lengthy article about the maiden race she won last autumn from which six or seven horses can out and won next time. By the time she reappeared at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly she was already down to around 6-1 and those odds were promptly halved after her easy success.
I believe that she has eased simply because the odds were a little cramped and she is my biggest concern. I’m always wary of Irish classic winners running in the Oaks or Derby. It always feels like an after-thought to me and I also felt that Marvellous was being scrubbed along far too early at the Curragh to be comfortable on the Epsom Downs. Tarfasha is still not a certain runner while connections ponder the conditions and none of the others have done anything to suggest that they can win a classic.
Amazing Maria has not raced this season but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her run into a place.
Ihtimal (Epsom Oaks) at 9-1 William Hill
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