Tag: horse racing odds

Spring Hits The Suburbs for Zipping Classic Day

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For the bulk of the year, horse racing is a constant on the Australian wagering landscape and it only comes to the fore in the public arena for a handful of weeks. That list doesn’t include Sandown Cup/Zipping Classic Day but this is a meeting that firmly belongs as part of Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival.

Situated in the heart of the city’s ever-expanding south-eastern suburbs, Sandown consists of two courses (Lakeside and Hillside) with the latter hosting this marquee meeting. Unlike its three ‘big brothers’ closer to the city, barriers aren’t a major issue and history shows that the track exhibits few signs of bias. But fitness is a major factor as the home straight features an uphill stretch that tests the mettle of both horses and jockeys. The big x-factor this year is the weather – thunderstorms and rain are forecast late on Friday evening before fine conditions return on Saturday afternoon.

Race against time for trainers

The day’s feature is the AUD $300,000 weight-for-age Quayclean Zipping Classic (2400m). It’s a race that pre-dates the track (which opened in 1965) by almost 80 years. Formerly known as the Williamstown Cup, it was shifted to Sandown and renamed the Zipping Classic in 2011 in honour of the horse that won the race in four successive years (2007-2010) for Lloyd Williams.

The owner of Melbourne Cup winner Almandin had planned to start up to four horses but will be without a runner in the eight-horse field. Five of those are backing up from the Melbourne Cup including surprise favourite Who Shot Thebarman. It’s an intriguing race as the bulk of the field are stepping back in distance to the mile-and-a-half, so it’s a challenge for trainers to freshen-up their charges less than a fortnight after the Melbourne Cup.

Orange looks the sweetest

One of the formlines that has again been franked throughout the Melbourne spring is the remarkable success of the internationals second-up. Three Zipping Classic entrants tick that box but the one that appeals is Big Orange. The six-year-old gelding is on his second trip Down Under, and he has a pair of impressive Melbourne Cup runs under his belt – fifth in 2015 and 10th this year.

However, those races were starkly different, with this year’s Cup run a staggering 18 lengths faster than last year’s relative dawdle. Jockey Jamie Spencer was caught out by that surprise pace this year but Damian Lane, who takes the ride here won’t hesitate to go forward in this field. The other two Cup runners rise sharply in weight, but Big Orange carries only 3kg extra. His run in the G2 Princess of Wales Stakes at Newmarket in July showed he can run a very sharp and quick 2400m.

Cup at Qewy’s mercy

There are only two 3200-metre races on the Melbourne Spring Carnival calendar – the Melbourne Cup and the Listed $150,000 Ladbrokes Sandown Cup. A field of 10 has accepted for the Sandown Cup with Melbourne Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy again linking with Godolphin’s English trainer Charlie Appleby aboard Qewy.

McEvoy has already won the Bendigo Cup and Lexus Stakes on Appleby-trained horses this spring and reunites with Qewy on which he won the Geelong Cup last month. The stayer went on to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup when ridden by Craig Williams. Appleby’s assistant James Ferguson said Qewy had come through the Melbourne Cup well and was in fantastic shape for Saturday, where he’ll start a $2.20 favourite with Ladbrokes. He’ll be up on the speed and looks the best bet on the card.

Wounded Punters Ready To Strike Back On Stakes Day

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Most punters duly handed back their profits from the first two days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Oaks Day after both red-hot favourites were beaten. The victory of the Lasqueti Spirit in the Crown Oaks was particularly cutting – it’s not every day that a $101 maiden wins a Group 1 race worth AUD $1 million!

So it’s onwards and upwards for what is arguably the best day of the carnival highlighted by a new-look AUD $2,000,000 Group 1 Emirates Stakes (2000m) and the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Darley Classic (1000m). The Flemington track has raced evenly across the previous three meetings but the usual trend of on-pace to run-on bias appears to have shifted this year, with horses on the speed dominating on Oaks Day. The track should remain in the good 3-4 range with a warm Friday forecast for Melbourne and only light showers on Saturday morning.

New era for Emirates Stakes

The Emirates Stakes that was once the highlight of the carnival finale is no more. Instead, the L.K.S. MacKinnon Stakes (previously run on Derby Day dating back to 1869) has been reshaped into a new era Emirates Stakes. The MacKinnon Stakes was once a key lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup, with 14 winners going on to repeat three days later.

However, the most recent winner of both races was Rogan Josh in 1999, and the relevance of the MacKinnon in the overall Cup picture has waned over the past decade. This reinvention of the MacKinnon shapes up as a cracking race – a weight-for-age field just a couple of notches below that of a Cox Plate line-up. Indeed, 10 of the past 12 winners of the MacKinnon contested the Cox Plate at their previous start with Gailo Chop the latest to successfully back-up. Dual Cox Plate winner Winx has been sent to the paddock leaving a tight market.

French raider poised for G1 triumph

Recent history shows that international runners making their second Australian start during the Melbourne spring have an outstanding record. Side Glance (2013) and Gailo Chop (2015) followed this formline in the MacKinnon, and French entire Vadamos looks an excellent chance of emulating that feat. His run in the Cox Plate was full of merit – working into a howling gale from the moment the gates opened, he was still pouring on the pressure at the 800m-mark and finished a gallant fourth behind Winx, Hartnell and Yankee Rose, rating more than 120.

The 2000 metres of the Emirates Stakes sits right in the middle of his preferred distance range, he’s drawn perfectly in barrier 7, and should be ridden a touch more patiently by Damien Oliver. He’s just shaded by The United States ($4.00) in the market and still looks a steal at $4.60 with William Hill.

Sydney sprinter to upset local hopes

The day’s other feature began life in 1960 as the Craven ‘A’ Stakes in a less “enlightened” time! The nation’s best sprinters dominate the honour roll including Buffering, Black Caviar (twice), Miss Andretti, Dance Hero and Takeover Target. This year’s field may not have the superstar factor but it’s an extraordinarily even field with up to nine legitimate challengers in a field of 12. The market can’t separate the top four – Fell Swoop ($6), Our Boy Malachi ($6), Lankan Rupee ($6.50) and The Quarterback ($6.50).

The straight races have been a bit of a lottery this week, so it’s worth looking past the obvious. Exciting Sydneysider Spieth has won five of his eight career starts including his past four in a row. Crucially, he’s had a run down the Straight Six, winning an 1100m handicap back in June. The $9 with Ladbrokes looks terrific value in such an even field.

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

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Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!

Sandown Friday Preview

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Racing has been distinctly low key in the UK this week after the excitement of the York Ebor Festival. Sandown provides the entertainment on Friday where all eyes will be on Roger Charlton’s Time Test.

The two-year-old son of Dubawi had caught the eye of several shrewd judges ahead of his debut at Newbury. He has been handed some big-race entries for later in the season so it was disappointing that he could not get past Stec over seven furlongs.

The race itself was extremely modest with just four runners but James Doyle looked to have matters well under control until his mount found nothing under pressure. It may have been a classic case of a horse needing the run and he can go some way to redeeming himself on Friday. There are several newcomers from the big Newmarket yards in opposition, notably Sir Michael Stoute’s Stravagante and John Gosden’s Sugar Boy. Neither hold big race entries and it will be disappointing if Time Test fails again here.

The colt runs in the all-conquering Abdullah colours, as does Torrid for Amanda Perrett in the 3.35 race. This colt is by Three Valleys who was a smart juvenile and he has not been seen since winning by eight lengths at Nottingham last season. He beat a horse called Saab Almanal who was not beaten far in the Dante at York and has since won his maiden at Newmarket. He is rated 95 so Torrid has scope to improve beyond his current mark of 90.

The two concerns are his lengthy absence and the softer going. He has been given an entry in the Cambridgeshire and the stable are generally performing better than they were a month ago. Ryan Moore needed all of his strength to persuade Beach Bar to win at Haydock while Imshivalla has been winning on quicker ground. I’ll take a chance on Torrid’s fitness.

There are several potential improvers in the closing handicap. Dance Of Heroes and Ski Lift both won with a little in hand last time out and have to be respected. I also felt that The Character showed himself capable of winning races when running on well into third at Chester last time. But the one that really catches my eye is Stoute’s Savant.

The grey has had three very quiet races to date, most notably last time out when tenderly handled into fifth place at Kempton. He looks ready to improve for the step up in distance and Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle.

Time Test 3.0 Sandown 9-5 Betfair

Torrid 3.35 Sandown 7-1 BetVictor

Savant 4.45 Sandown 11-2 BetVictor

Epsom Tuesday Preview

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The victory of Muhaarar in the Gimcrack Stakes on Saturday gave us a profit on all four days of the York Ebor meeting. We finished the week over 30 points in profit after Dutch Connection (16-1), Tapestry (12-1), Sole Power (7-2) and Pale Mimosa (7-2).

The racing is not up to the same quality this week but there are a couple of interesting handicaps at Epsom on Tuesday that may be worth a flutter.

The old expression about following over cliffs springs to mind looking at the form for Mission Approved. His last six races have yielded three seconds and three thirds and he is likely to be a popular choice yet again in the six-furlong John Akehurst Handicap.

Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, the gelding is now with Luca Cumani and almost popped up at 20-1 at Goodwood last time out. He certainly did not appear to shirk the issue when battling to the line and was unlucky to be beaten a short-head by Barnet Fair. The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for that run which must be frustrating for connections.

Huntsmans Close was not far behind him while Duke Cosimo won a very competitive race at Ripon last time. Both should go well along with track specialist Swiss Cross but I’ll keep faith with the luckless Mission Approved.

In the closing race I’m going to go with Roger Charlton’s Marzante. The grey ran a cracking race when narrowly beaten by Cherry Princess on his first outing for three years. He set a modest pace and looked like being swallowed up early in the straight but kept finding extra all the way to the line. Cherry Princess arrived fast and late and Marzante looked unlucky not to hold on.

The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for his troubles but he should run well for George Baker who has impressed me this season. Cherry Princess re-opposes and Gabrial The Thug should also pose a threat. Perhaps the biggest threat is the so-called “Bounce factor”. Many believe that horses running well after a lengthy layoff could suffer a bounce effect next time and run poorly. Marzante would be a prime candidate but, not knowing the reasons for his lengthy absence, I am prepared to take a chance.

It is difficult to get very excited about the rest of the card but hopefully the racing will pick up during the week.

Mission Approved 3.25 @4-1 Betfair

Marzante 5.05 @9-2 BetVictor