Most punters duly handed back their profits from the first two days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Oaks Day after both red-hot favourites were beaten. The victory of the Lasqueti Spirit in the Crown Oaks was particularly cutting – it’s not every day that a $101 maiden wins a Group 1 race worth AUD $1 million!
So it’s onwards and upwards for what is arguably the best day of the carnival highlighted by a new-look AUD $2,000,000 Group 1 Emirates Stakes (2000m) and the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Darley Classic (1000m). The Flemington track has raced evenly across the previous three meetings but the usual trend of on-pace to run-on bias appears to have shifted this year, with horses on the speed dominating on Oaks Day. The track should remain in the good 3-4 range with a warm Friday forecast for Melbourne and only light showers on Saturday morning.
New era for Emirates Stakes
The Emirates Stakes that was once the highlight of the carnival finale is no more. Instead, the L.K.S. MacKinnon Stakes (previously run on Derby Day dating back to 1869) has been reshaped into a new era Emirates Stakes. The MacKinnon Stakes was once a key lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup, with 14 winners going on to repeat three days later.
However, the most recent winner of both races was Rogan Josh in 1999, and the relevance of the MacKinnon in the overall Cup picture has waned over the past decade. This reinvention of the MacKinnon shapes up as a cracking race – a weight-for-age field just a couple of notches below that of a Cox Plate line-up. Indeed, 10 of the past 12 winners of the MacKinnon contested the Cox Plate at their previous start with Gailo Chop the latest to successfully back-up. Dual Cox Plate winner Winx has been sent to the paddock leaving a tight market.
French raider poised for G1 triumph
Recent history shows that international runners making their second Australian start during the Melbourne spring have an outstanding record. Side Glance (2013) and Gailo Chop (2015) followed this formline in the MacKinnon, and French entire Vadamos looks an excellent chance of emulating that feat. His run in the Cox Plate was full of merit – working into a howling gale from the moment the gates opened, he was still pouring on the pressure at the 800m-mark and finished a gallant fourth behind Winx, Hartnell and Yankee Rose, rating more than 120.
The 2000 metres of the Emirates Stakes sits right in the middle of his preferred distance range, he’s drawn perfectly in barrier 7, and should be ridden a touch more patiently by Damien Oliver. He’s just shaded by The United States ($4.00) in the market and still looks a steal at $4.60 with William Hill.
Sydney sprinter to upset local hopes
The day’s other feature began life in 1960 as the Craven ‘A’ Stakes in a less “enlightened” time! The nation’s best sprinters dominate the honour roll including Buffering, Black Caviar (twice), Miss Andretti, Dance Hero and Takeover Target. This year’s field may not have the superstar factor but it’s an extraordinarily even field with up to nine legitimate challengers in a field of 12. The market can’t separate the top four – Fell Swoop ($6), Our Boy Malachi ($6), Lankan Rupee ($6.50) and The Quarterback ($6.50).
The straight races have been a bit of a lottery this week, so it’s worth looking past the obvious. Exciting Sydneysider Spieth has won five of his eight career starts including his past four in a row. Crucially, he’s had a run down the Straight Six, winning an 1100m handicap back in June. The $9 with Ladbrokes looks terrific value in such an even field.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
