Tag: horse racing betting

Pick Your Guineas As 3yos Feature In Sydney And Melbourne

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If ever a reminder was required that Australian racing comprises a group of state jurisdictions that display an almost complete unwillingness to work together, let us present the highlights of Saturday’s thoroughbred program. In Sydney, we have the G1 $1,000,000 Girvan Waugh Randwick Guineas for the 3yos over 16000m. In Melbourne, Flemington will host the G1 $750,000 Australian Guineas for the 3yos over 1600m. Yep, a pair of G1 miles for the 3yos on the same day! Mother Nature is having her say on this bizarre scheduling conflict with soaking rain threatening the Randwick card while Melbourne is experiencing a glorious streak of early autumn sunshine. If the wet weather continues, the Randwick program could easily be postponed as the track is already saturated.
Echo Effect to Make a Splash

Let’s start in Sydney for the first leg of the Sydney autumn three-year-old Triple Crown (along with the Rosehill Guineas at 2000m and ATC Australian Derby over 2400m). The race originated in 1925 and was run as the Canterbury Guineas over 1900m until 2005 when it was renamed the Randwick Guineas and shortened to 1600m. A field of 14 has accepted for this year’s renewal, although scratchings are almost certain. Despite the presence of a pair of very handy types – Man From Uncle and Comin’ Through, #4 Echo Effect looks a huge danger ($9.50 with bet365). Kristen Buchanan’s gelding is only proven wet tracker in the race (2:2-0-0) and was just nailed on the line in the G2 Hobartville (1400m) at Rosehill two weeks ago.

Kiwi Newcomer Could Pinch WFA Sprint

The first of the G1s at Randwick is the fifth of the day – the Canterbury BMW Stakes at weight for age over 1300m. First run in 1929, it’s now being held at a third different venue (Canterbury, Rosehill and now Randwick). Five of the eight runners are priced at $10 or better with Chautauqua a $2.70 favourite as he chases a sixth G1 win. The superstar grey is winless in his past four while 10 of his 12 wins have been on good going. Currently at $9 with William Hill, #7 Ugo Foscolo is the value runner. The 3yo gelding gets weight relief over the leading fancies as he aims to make it six wins from seven career starts. Now with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he trialled arrogantly at Warwick Farm on February 20.

Huge Field to Contest Flemington Feature

Rain won’t be an issue at Flemington on Saturday where the mercury will be in the mid-20s for the Australian Guineas meeting. A capacity field of 16 is virtually assured with James Cummings’ top rater Prized Icon accepting here in preference to a soggy Randwick. Hey Doc is the $4 favourite with Sportsbet thanks to his solid win in the G3 C.S. Hayes (1400m) here two weeks ago. Just five of the 19 acceptors are priced north of $20 so there’s value galore. An outside draw in such a big field is a big knock, while several runners have yet to be tested over a mile. The four runners that tick more boxes than most are 2016 VRC Derby winner #1 Prized Icon, 2016 Caulfield Guineas victor #2 Divine Prophet, #4 Hey Doc and our pick, #14 Harlow Gold. Fillies bat above their weight in this race, and the Lindsay Park runner rates well below an $18 chance.

Swan Form Looks Strong For Japan’s Mile Championship

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Japanese horse racing doesn’t register on the radar for most punters but it should – the thoroughbred scene in the Land of the Rising Sun is among the richest on the planet matched by the quality of the racing stock. The country’s leading runners will be highlighted over the next few weeks with the focus on Kyoto on Sunday for the latest running of the International Grade 1 Mile Championship. Kyoto is a fairly traditional US-style track, with a long run to the first corner from the 1600-metre start.

A short downhill chute takes runners to the second turn then into the home straight and within sight of a slice of the JPY 200,700,000 (approximately USD $2 million). First run in 1984, the Mile Championship is run at set weights (57kg) and is considered a stepping stone to the Hong Kong Mile as part of International Day at Sha Tin on December 11. It is the second race in the Japan Autumn International Series of races. Some big names have won the Mile Championship, including successive wins for Taiki Shuttle (1997 and 1998), Durandal (2003 and 2004) and Daiwa Major (2006 and 2007).

The race has been run on firm ground in the past three years, and just three favourites have saluted over the past decade. Race favourites have won 14 times in the three-decade history of the race. A field of 19 horses nominated for the feature race, including two three-year-olds – Lord Quest and Spectre. The last three-year-old to win the race was Agnes Digital in 2000. Unfortunately, the German-trained filly, Spectre, has been declared a non-starter, leaving a field of 18. Incredibly, eight of the 18 runners are sired from Deep Impact, the 2006 Japan Cup winner.

Satono Aladdin ($3.90) looks ideally placed here. The five-year-old by Deep Impact is coming off an impressive win in the Grade 2 Swan Stakes last month, as well as finishing a fourth in this year’s Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen. He was fourth in last year’s Mile Championship and has won seven times from 21 starts. He’s trained by Yasutoshi Ikee, who has a handy knack of getting horses just right. The value runner is Neorealism – this 5-year-old is tackling a Grade 1 (and the Kyoto circuit) for the first time. He caught the attention of the local racing fraternity when beating Maurice in the Grade 2 Sapporo Kinen (2000m) when leading all the way. He is six wins from 14 starts and is trained by one of the leading trainers Noriyuki Hori.

• Many of the better US 2-year-olds which didn’t in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile gather for this weekend’s $1 million Grade III Delta Downs Jackpot in Vinton, Louisiana. This year’s renewal includes winners from California, Kentucky, Minnesota and New York. The list features Dangerfield, Tip Tap Tapizar and Gunnevera but will all be chasing Line Judge, a Spring At Last colt that has won three successive races including the local prep for this, the $200,000 Jean Laffite. The Joe Sharp trainee has been dominant in all three wins and could be a major player in the battle for the 2017 Triple Crown.

TABtouch Masters Is All About the Wild West

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After a terrific end to Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival at Sandown last Saturday, the spotlight shifts a lazy 3500 kilometres west to Perth in Western Australia for a trio of black-type meetings at Ascot, one of the city’s two courses. The Perth carnival has been repackaged as the TABtouch Masters, the world’s first single-track festival featuring a Group 1 race worth at least $1,000,000 on three successive Saturdays. It all kicks-off this weekend with the AUD $1 million Group 1 James Boag’s Premium Railway Stakes, run under traditional handicap conditions over 1600m.

The heat is on

Unlike last week’s card at Sandown, punters need to be wary of the different starting positions on this picturesque circuit, which sits on the banks of the Swan River. Ascot features just three turns, two of which are particularly sharp. There’s only a run of about 300m to the first corner from the 1600m chute start but history shows that hasn’t been an impediment in the Railway with the past four winners coming from either barrier 11 or 12. Track conditions are rarely an issue at this time of the year in Perth – the maximum daily temperature rarely dips below 30°C so firm conditions are the norm.

A proud history

The Railway Stakes dates back almost as long as many of the major races run on the eastern seaboard, with Nimrod winning the first edition back in 1887. It was a mainstay of the New Year’s Day racing program until the Western Australian Turf Club shifted major carnival races to late November. Just four horses have won both the Railway mile and the WFA Kingston Town Classic (1800m) traditionally run two weeks later – Better Loosen Up (1989), Old Comrade (2001), Modem (2004) and Sniper’s Bullet (2009). Northerly won the Railway in 2000 while hometown favourite Luckygray uniquely saluted in 2011 and 2013.

Raiders take on locals

One of the unique features of this carnival is the battle of east and west as a handful of trainers from Sydney and Melbourne chase the late spring riches on offer. There are five engaged in this year’s Railway – Chris Waller duo Mackintosh ($6.50 with William Hill) and Good Project ($14 with William Hill), Darren Weir’s Rageese ($8.00 with William Hill), He Or She from the Hayes/Dabernig camp ($16.00 with William Hill) and highly rated NZ gelding Kawi ($19.00 with William Hill). Local hope Perfect Reflection is the $5.00 favourite for the big Bob Peters team, trainers Grant and Alana Williams and champion WA hoop William Pike (54.5kg) from gate 2.

Back the Mack

It’s possible to make a case for about half of the 16 runners, but we’ve settled on the Group 1 form of Waller’s Mackintosh. Barrier 16 is far from ideal, but he has former Perth boy Damien Oliver aboard and carries just 54kg. The 4yo gelding was third in a blanket finish in the G1 Epsom (1600m) and Randwick before being nabbed late in the G1 Cantala (1600m) at Flemington on Derby Day, finishing 1.4L back in fifth. He’s won six of 11 career starts, including five of nine on good surfaces. A fair proportion of this field are unproven over the mile, but there’s no doubt this bloke will still be strong at the line.

Much to like about Pike

An other highlight of the day is the AUD $500,000 Group 1 Sky Racing WA Guineas (1600m) for the three-year-olds. It’s an equally open affair, Ellicazoom, one of three fillies engaged, rated a $4.80 favourite with Ladbrokes. However, another five runners are rated better than $10 chances. One of those is Get Over It ($8.00 on Ladbrokes), trained on this track by Trevor Andrews and ridden here by Pike after the suspension of Paul Harvey. In contrast to the bulk of these, he looks ready for the step to 1600m and finished fourth in the traditional lead-up, the Fairetha Stakes here two ago after being held up in the straight.

Contenders Galore Line Up For 2016 Caulfield Cup

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The experts would have you believe that the Melbourne Cup is the toughest race of the spring to win. Bollocks. In the vast majority of years, there are maybe 5-6 genuine Melbourne Cup contenders (unless, of course, Typhoon Frankie Dettori KOs the bulk of the contenders allowing a 150-1 pop to take the race à la 2015). In contrast, a genuine winning case can generally be made for the bulk of the Caulfield Cup field each year. Not many horses can run out a genuine Group 1-quality two miles. Plenty can run out a very strong 2400m.

In contrast, a genuine winning case can generally be made for the bulk of the Caulfield Cup betting field each year. Not many horses can run out a genuine Group 1-quality two miles. Plenty can run out a very strong 2400m.

Blue Sapphire an appetizer for the main event

The BMW Caulfield Cup Carnival continues on Wednesday (Australian Eastern Daylight Time) with the running of the AUD $350,000 Group 3 Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes. After the Thousand Guineas was shifted to the Caulfield Guineas Day in 2012, this set weights’ affair for three-year-olds over 1200m became the feature act on the middle day of the carnival. The billing/prizemoney hasn’t been matched by the quality of the field in recent years for this awkward albeit lucrative spot on the spring racing calendar, but that’s not the case this year. It’s worth noting that horses nominated for the AUD $1 million G1 Blue Diamond Stakes earlier in the year automatically qualify for this race.

Price colt is simply Flyin’

The 3yo class of 2016 is one of the strongest in recent years, which nicely franks the hype and price surrounding Golden Slipper place-getter Flying Artie. Mapped to get the perfect run from barrier 4, Mick Price’s colt remains a steal at $2.10 on the William Hill board. Flying Artie won the Blue Diamond Prelude last campaign before finishing second to stablemate Extreme Choice in the Blue Diamond, then third in the Golden Slipper to Capitalist. It’s worth noting that three of the past four winners have been favourites while the past four victors all started in barrier 5 or closer to the fence. He rates about four lengths ahead of this field so even allowing for a less-than-perfect run, he should be conquering this bunch.

Oaks winner leads Cup market

The line-up for the AUD $3 million BMW Caulfield Cup has been finalised with a field of 20 to chase the first prize of AUD $1.75 million on Saturday afternoon. Despite a miserable start to the week, the Caulfield track has so far held up remarkably well, so good conditions are likely for the toughest 2400m test in the country. Last year’s Victorian Oaks winner Jameka (barrier 13) is the dominant favourite for the race at $3.40 ahead of Darren Weir’s sole runner Real Love (10), the winner of the JRA Cup, at $9. Go Dreaming will carry just 50.5kg from the cherished inside draw but remains a $201 pop.

Internationals to make their mark on Saturday

More and more international trainers are bringing their Melbourne Cup contenders to town for at least one run ahead of the world’s richest handicap race on the first Tuesday in November. This year, four internationals will line up in the 2016 Caulfield Cup with Aidan O’Brien represented by Sir Isaac Newton, Charlie Appleby saddling up Scottish and Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Andreas Wohler represented by Articus. Lee and Anthony Freedman now train former Sir Michael Stoute galloper Exospheric, formerly known as Exosphere. All have drawn reasonably and attracted interest from local punters – Articus (11) and Scottish (7) are at $8, Exospheric (3) is a $10 quote, while Sir Isaac Newton, which will start from barrier 9, is rated an $11 hope.

Horse Racing Tips 20th July

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Damnit! I picked the wrong Godolphin horse to win yesterday, i hope you just blindly backed the Godolphin horses in maidens yesterday, quite a few of them won at decent prices.

In keeping with the Godolphin theme, my first tip today is a Godolphin horse returning to the all weather after a disappointing turf performance last time.

Chord Chart 18:35 Lingfield 7/4 Stanjames

This acclamation colt finished a 4 length 5th at Nottingham on debut, but then switched to the all weather at Wolverhampton and absolutely bolted up (the winning distance was just over a length, but the manner in which he won constitutes bolting up to me!). Bin Suroor decided to take him back to the turf at Ascot, and he yet again was beaten exactly 4 lengths. Maybe they wanted to give him another try on the turf just to see where they are with him. The return to the all weather should see the best of him, and although he has some decent opposition to take on today, this is a class 5 nursery..

Flamborough Breeze 20:45 Lingfield 4/1 Stanjames

Here is a betcirca favourite, and this selection is being put up partly out of the fact he’s done us so many favours in the past. In Feburary this year, Flamborough Breeze won 3 races back to back at Kempton, then the decision was made to race this horse at Lingfield, here the selection frustratingly finished 2nd by a short head. By this time, he had his balls in the handicappers vice so the decision was taken to go up in grade and a trip on the turf. He’s back down to a class 5 today against some fairly exposed and unreliable types. He’s 4-1 due to not winning since he racked up his hat trick earlier this year, so, he could and should be an each way bet to nothing, we hope.

Horse Racing Tips Thursday

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Took the day off yesterday as i didn’t feel strongly about anything, but as it turns out a few of the bets i did actually came in! I should of put them up. I don’t like to aftertime, but Khothry getting up at Killarney at 6-1 on the line was rather nice..

Sadiq 15:50 Brighton 6/4 Stanjames

I have a massive soft spot for Godolphin horses at the moment, and you should do too. They are firing on all cylinders big time right now, and every runner should be given the upmost respect. Today Godolphin are represented at Brighton by Sadiq, a last time out winner. I must admit though, i know absolutely nothing about the jockey onboard, all i do know is he is claiming 7! So approach this with a little bit of caution, purely for this reason.

He’s potentially the classiest horse in the race and should run a great race if his jockey is up for it.

Tapis libre 18:10 9/4 Boylesports

As you well know, i love horses in form. This horse is no exception, as he goes for a 4 timer today. A close friend of mine has a rule that goes something like this

“3 wins on the bounce is ok, 4 is greedy”

I tend to ignore him, and some times it comes back to haunt me, but today i will most definitely be backing this horse regardless of his rule. Joanna Mason claims 5, and almost wipes out his 6lb hike in the weights for his latest win. Sky Khan is a worthy favourite, having scooted up last time at Leicester.

One thing that may put punters off backing this selection is the fact it’s a ladies amateur race. However, Tapis Libre has been almost exclusively campaigned in lad amateur races this year, maybe he prefers the gentle touch of a women? Who doesn’t.