Tag: Jameka

Sydney Still Soggy For BMW Day At Rosehill Gardens

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Another week, another 100 millimetres of rain for Sydney, meaning Saturday’s Group 1 meeting at Rosehill Gardens again looks set to be run on a heavy track. But in stark contrast to a soggy Randwick, the Rosehill track held up remarkably for last week’s Golden Slipper meeting and we’re expecting a fair racing surface. It was also a surprisingly easy assignment for punters with most races dominated by genuine wet trackers that had race fitness on their side. But before the main course of The BMW is served on Saturday, there’s a tasty entrée in store as the Melbourne autumn winds down.

G1 Friday at the Valley

With the Mornington Cup occupying stand-alone Saturday status, city racegoers will be heading to Moonee Valley on Friday night for the running of the Group 1 $500,000 Keogh Homes William Reid Stakes at weight for age conditions over 1200m. Melbourne’s final Group 1 race of the season was first run in 1925. It was famously won by Manikato five years in a row (1979-1983), while Ascot champions Black Caviar and Miss Andretti are also past champions. There’s a very even field of 12 engaged this year, with Star Turn a narrow favourite ($4.20 with Ladbrokes), while The Quarterback is the rank outsider at just $20 (with William Hill). Last year’s winner Flamberge is a $16 chance with bet365. Gary Portelli celebrated victory with She Will Reign in the Golden Slipper last week and we like his chances here with #1 Rebel Dane ($10 with Luxbet). The 7yo entire won the G1 Manikato (this track/distance/grade) last October while jockey Ben Melham is in superb form.

Mare a Fair Chance in Tough WFA Test

Showers are forecast in Sydney for the 48 hours prior to this weekend’s showpiece race at Rosehill, meaning a track upgrade is unlikely at this stage. The feature has been known as The BMW since 2002 and was normally held on Golden Slipper Day but was shuffled to build some space between the Golden Slipper and The Championships. Only nine horses will line-up from the 2400m start for the $1.5 million weight for age race this year, with four well clear in the betting – last week’s Ranvet winner Our Ivanhowe ($4.60), 2017 Australian Cup victor Humidor ($4.20), Sky High winner Tavago ($6.00) and Jameka ($3.80), which won last year’s Caulfield Cup. The former was superb in similar conditions last week and could well go back-to-back but with a slight pull in the weights, we’re leaning to #8 Jameka. The 4yo mare is fourth-up this prep, proven at the distance and will get through the slop.

Kiwi Filly to Bounce Back

Aspiring Australian Oaks runners will come to the fore in the traditional lead-up race – the G1 $500,000 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m for the 3yo fillies. It’s a race with an honour roll that includes Lucia Valentina (2014), Mosheen (2012), Miss Finland (2007) and Special Harmony (2004). In the past 15 years, the winners have come through 10 different races across nine different tracks while favourites have snared five of the past 11 editions. The Chris Waller-trained Foxplay holds favouritism with Unibet ($3.30) with another four runners rated at better than $10. We’re going to give the Kiwi filly #1 La Bella Diosa ($6 with Sportsbet) one more chance. Her form had been faultless until a horror run in the G1 Coolmore here on March 11. She’s been passed fit by vets and has worked well since under Jason Collett, who rode her to victory in the G2 Surround at Randwick on February 25.

Field Locked In For 2016 Melbourne Cup

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From the moment that correct weight is announced for the final race on Victoria Derby Day, the focus shifts immediately to Tuesday’s AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m). The field was finalised today after Oceanographer, one of Godolphin’s five runners in the race, won the G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) today.

The field of 24 runners again underlines the international interest in the world’s richest handicap race, which will be run at Flemington on Tuesday at 3pm. Just one locally bred horse, Caulfield Cup winner and second favourite Jameka ($7.50 with William Hill), will take its place in the field. A total of 10 internationally-trained runners have earned a spot in the field (eight from Europe and one each from Japan and New Zealand), with the remainder bred overseas but trained locally. So, where is the value to be found in the 2016 Melbourne Cup betting markets?

Payne’s legacy looms large

Cup Day is a wonderfully unique day on the Australian sporting calendar. It’s a public holiday in Melbourne, so the celebrations stretch will beyond the confines of the Flemington track. TAB outlets are packed as soon as their doors open, as once-a-year punters scour the form guide in search of the ultimate return for their annual flutter.

Those numbers are also likely to be bolstered after last year’s fairytale victory of Prince Of Penzance. Rated a 150-1 outsider, the six-year-old gelding scored in a massive upset. It also marked the first time a female jockey, Michelle Payne, had ridden a Cup winner. Payne’s profile now sits alongside those of the nation’s greatest sporting heroes. Katelyn Mallyon will be hoping to emulate Payne’s achievement on Assign this year.

Prince took the reign

The victory of Prince Of Penzance flew in the face of several long established trends, as the Melbourne Cup is a bloody tough race to win. Primarily, he was unproven at 3200 metres, but Payne made the most of a rails run after Frankie Dettori (on runner-up Max Dynamite) wiped out one-quarter of the field with an ill-timed shift at the 350m-mark, which earned him a fine and a one-month suspension. It’s a combination of factors that generally add up to just a handful of Cup runners having any hope of victory – the ability to run out a strong 3200 metres on firm going under handicap conditions. Some are weighted ideally, some have great staying ability and others love a hard track, but the combination proves a death knell for the bulk of the international contenders.

The winning formula

But having eliminated those without a genuine chance (the marathon trip from Europe, a long break between runs, weight, barrier and questionable Northern Hemisphere form are other impediments worth consideration), there are some proven filters to run through the remaining contenders to devise a list of potential winners. In the 24 editions of the Melbourne Cup since 1991, 17 winners had returned a career-best rating at their previous start. This tells us that the horse has been given the best possible preparation and is in the best form of his or her career. A short campaign in the autumn carnivals (in Australia or New Zealand) also suits Melbourne Cup runners. This factor has produced seven winners in the past 16 years.

First-up drought to end?

Normally, it’s worth steering clear of the international runners that have not had a previous run in Australia. Since 1993, when Vintage Crop won for Ireland, there have been more than 80 international starters entered in the Cup without a previous run in Australia. A handful has come extraordinarily close to victory but records show they all fell short. It’s actually a very weak Cup field that will again feature just a handful of winning chances – they include the Japanese runner Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave (barrier 24 and Dettori aboard aren’t ideal), Bondi Beach, Almoonqith (but must be ridden aggressively) and, at a stretch, Exospheric and Hartnell. Watch for our late mail update on Cup Eve.

Contenders Galore Line Up For 2016 Caulfield Cup

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The experts would have you believe that the Melbourne Cup is the toughest race of the spring to win. Bollocks. In the vast majority of years, there are maybe 5-6 genuine Melbourne Cup contenders (unless, of course, Typhoon Frankie Dettori KOs the bulk of the contenders allowing a 150-1 pop to take the race à la 2015). In contrast, a genuine winning case can generally be made for the bulk of the Caulfield Cup field each year. Not many horses can run out a genuine Group 1-quality two miles. Plenty can run out a very strong 2400m.

In contrast, a genuine winning case can generally be made for the bulk of the Caulfield Cup betting field each year. Not many horses can run out a genuine Group 1-quality two miles. Plenty can run out a very strong 2400m.

Blue Sapphire an appetizer for the main event

The BMW Caulfield Cup Carnival continues on Wednesday (Australian Eastern Daylight Time) with the running of the AUD $350,000 Group 3 Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes. After the Thousand Guineas was shifted to the Caulfield Guineas Day in 2012, this set weights’ affair for three-year-olds over 1200m became the feature act on the middle day of the carnival. The billing/prizemoney hasn’t been matched by the quality of the field in recent years for this awkward albeit lucrative spot on the spring racing calendar, but that’s not the case this year. It’s worth noting that horses nominated for the AUD $1 million G1 Blue Diamond Stakes earlier in the year automatically qualify for this race.

Price colt is simply Flyin’

The 3yo class of 2016 is one of the strongest in recent years, which nicely franks the hype and price surrounding Golden Slipper place-getter Flying Artie. Mapped to get the perfect run from barrier 4, Mick Price’s colt remains a steal at $2.10 on the William Hill board. Flying Artie won the Blue Diamond Prelude last campaign before finishing second to stablemate Extreme Choice in the Blue Diamond, then third in the Golden Slipper to Capitalist. It’s worth noting that three of the past four winners have been favourites while the past four victors all started in barrier 5 or closer to the fence. He rates about four lengths ahead of this field so even allowing for a less-than-perfect run, he should be conquering this bunch.

Oaks winner leads Cup market

The line-up for the AUD $3 million BMW Caulfield Cup has been finalised with a field of 20 to chase the first prize of AUD $1.75 million on Saturday afternoon. Despite a miserable start to the week, the Caulfield track has so far held up remarkably well, so good conditions are likely for the toughest 2400m test in the country. Last year’s Victorian Oaks winner Jameka (barrier 13) is the dominant favourite for the race at $3.40 ahead of Darren Weir’s sole runner Real Love (10), the winner of the JRA Cup, at $9. Go Dreaming will carry just 50.5kg from the cherished inside draw but remains a $201 pop.

Internationals to make their mark on Saturday

More and more international trainers are bringing their Melbourne Cup contenders to town for at least one run ahead of the world’s richest handicap race on the first Tuesday in November. This year, four internationals will line up in the 2016 Caulfield Cup with Aidan O’Brien represented by Sir Isaac Newton, Charlie Appleby saddling up Scottish and Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Andreas Wohler represented by Articus. Lee and Anthony Freedman now train former Sir Michael Stoute galloper Exospheric, formerly known as Exosphere. All have drawn reasonably and attracted interest from local punters – Articus (11) and Scottish (7) are at $8, Exospheric (3) is a $10 quote, while Sir Isaac Newton, which will start from barrier 9, is rated an $11 hope.