Tag: Flemington

Darley Classic Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The $1million Darley Classic looks the pick of the weekend action at the Spring Carnival with a fascinating clash of some of the top sprinters in the world.

The International flavour is due to the surprise raid by Ireland’s Slade Power, officially the top six-furlong  sprinter in Europe. There has been quite an agitated debate going on over the past week about the loading procedure for this race and whether or not Slade Power should be allowed to go in last.

The Australian authorities have stuck rigidly by the book and insisted that no special allowances can be made. At one point it seemed that the horse may even be withdrawn but some sort of compromise appears to have been reached. Neither side has admitted to backing down so let’s hope that it goes smoothly. Slade Power can get upset in the stalls and is usually loaded last in Europe.

Assuming he gets out of the gates without a problem, he then has to face a turning track and some of the fastest horses on the planet. The bookmakers in the UK have him at around 4-1 while he is almost twice those odds in Australia. I fear that the Australian odds may be closer the mark as he has some seriously good horses in opposition.

Lankan Rupee had to overcome a wide draw to win the Manikato Stakes last time, holding off the chasing pack in a bunch finish. Buffering had previously beaten Lankan Rupee but the places were reversed here using some bold early tactics to get across to the lead. The unluckiest horse of all appeared to be Rebel Dane who flew home in fourth, the second time running that he has finished fast but to no avail. Craig Williams will be hoping it is third time lucky but don’t expect to see him until very late on.

Lankan Rupee was restoring his reputation as the world’s leading sprinter in the Manikato Stakes but he faces a new challenger in the flying grey Chautauqua. This horse has been prepared by Team Hawkes and looked a superstar in the making when bolting up by four lengths in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes. It is difficult to know how that form matches up to the Manikato but he was on a tight rein with two furlongs to run and that is a rare sight in a six-furlong sprint at Group  level.

Chautauqua @6-4 Sportsbet

Rebel Dane @20-1 Sportsbet (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3)

Emirates Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

John O’Shea was appointed Godolphin’s head trainer in Australia in August and bids for some much-needed Group 1 success in Saturday’s Emirates Stakes with Contributer.

Although Godolphin has claimed over $20million in prize money for the third consecutive year, they have only recorded three Group 1 winners to date. It was not until last month that Godolphin registered their first Group 1 win in the UK. This will be the lowest since 1997 when they only had 83 horses in training as opposed to more than 400 in 2014.

The statistics for Group 2, Group 3 and Listed winners are very much in keeping with recent years but the significant fall in Group 1 winners will be a matter of serious concern for Sheikh Mohammed.

Contributer is a son of High Chaparral previously trained by Ed Dunlop. He had only won at Listed level prior to his recent victory in the Group 3 David Jones Cup at Caulfield. That was over his favoured trip of a mile and a quarter and he drops back to a mile on Saturday.

He was bought by Godolphin after winning the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot this summer and sent to O’Shea. He was always travelling easily just off the pace at Caulfield and eased to the front on the home turn, only needing to be pushed out to hold Noble Protector by a length. He is drawn nicely in barrier two and should be able to keep tabs on the leaders over this shorter trip.

The race that produced the best trial was probably the Crystal Mile in which Hooked beat the staying on Bull Point and Desert Jeuney. Hooked was right up with the pace from the outset while the second and third came from well back on the home turn. I was particularly taken with the late run of Bull Point who enjoys a 2kg pull at the weights with the winner on Saturday. Damien Oliver takes the ride on this one and he could prove the each-way value of the race.

Hucklebuck is another fancied runner starting from barrier five. He won the Group 3 Yellowglen Stakes over 1400m here on Derby Day but it must be a slight concern that this race will come too soon.

Contributer @4-1 Sportsbet*

Bull Point @8-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

*Sportsbet Special Offer – If your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the Emirates, stakes will be refunded (up to a maximum of $100, first bet only)

Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday provides Darren Weir’s Prince Of Penzance with a great chance to follow up his Moonee Valley Gold Cup win.

Ten runners are set to line up for the $300,000 contest over 2600m with the son of Pentire carrying top weight of 58kg. The five-year-old has an excellent record at Flemington and beat Tony McEvoy’s Le Roi by a length and a quarter last time. The race was run at a crawl in the early stages and it briefly looked as though Prince Of Penzance was going to get blocked off on the home turn. Once he saw daylight he fairly flew home and should confirm the form on Saturday.

Damien Oliver has been booked to partner Le Roi who starts from the wide outside. He finished third to Mourinho in the Listed Cranbourne Cup and is joined in the field by stablemate Big Memory. The latter narrowly failed to book his place in the Melbourne Cup when beaten by Signoff in last week’s Lexus Stakes.

Tommy Berry has chosen to partner Big Memory here in preference to Le Roi, the horse he into second place at Moonee Valley. McEvoy’s five-year-old won the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, a run that looks even better in light of fourth horse Protectionist’s easy win in the big race on Tuesday.

Le Roi and Big Memory are eligible for a $100,000 bonus as they had accepted for Melbourne Cup but missed out on the ballot. The only concern with Big Memory must be whether he can put in yet another good staying performance after last weekend’s game effort.

Ken Keys runs Bring Something, a four-year-old by Sebring. Luke Nolen takes the ride on him following a narrow victory in the Listed Bendigo Cup. Michael Kent’s Epingle finished fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup while Noble Protector finished second in David Jones Cup and will be ridden by Craig Williams. He has been supported in to favouritism during the week but I would expect to see money come for Prince Of Penzance on the day.

Let’s Make Adeal is also chasing the bonus but could do no better than fifth place in the Lexus Stakes for Nigel Blackiston. He was earlier third in the Herbert Power and would have a chance on that form.

Prince Of Penzance @4-1 Sportsbet

Crown Oaks Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s Ladies Day at the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Thursday and 12 fillies contest the Group 1 Crown Oaks in race 8 on the card.

If you put any faith in statistics at all, you will probably not want to look any further than the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes for finding the winner here. Remarkably, 14 of the previous 20 winners have come via that race.

Unfortunately, that only narrows the field down to six but the first three of those are likely to be the relevant runners here. Thunder Lady came out on top ahead of Godolphin’s Abduction with Golconda running on in eye-catching style in fourth place. Tommy Berry rides Thunder Lady from barrier eight and he daughter of Mastercraftsman will surely have no problems lasting this trip.

Godolphin felt that Abduction saw too much daylight that day but she looks a very free-running sort and I am not entirely sure that this longer distance will suit her. She could not have a better rider than Kerrin McEvoy to nurse her home but I believe Thunder Lady will again come out on top. She is trained by John Sargent who won the race last year with Kirramosa.

At the available odds, I will also take an each-way bet on the fourth horse Golconda. She was a long way off the pace and had to race wide into the straight. Although she was never closer than at the finish, she did not lose any ground on the winner during the final sprint. At odds of around 25-1, she looks worth an interest.

Set Square was impressive in the Ethereal Stakes while Go Indy Go will have plenty of supporters after finishing third against the colts last time out. The bookmakers are having a hard time finding a clear favourite with Go Indy Go grouped with Robert Smerdon’s Lumosty and Crafty.

Lumosty won her maiden by nine lengths but could only manage eighth in the Guineas. She bounced back to form to win the Group 2 Fillies Classic by two and a half lengths last time. Crafty was game in defeat in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Caulfield Classic. Both races were won by Smerdon’s Fontein Ruby who is also in the field but relatively friendless in the betting after fading last time.

Thunder Lady @7.70 Bet365

Golconda @26.0 Bet365

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Protectionist lands Melbourne Cup for Germany

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Melbourne Cup was won impressively by the German-trained Protectionist who stormed clear of the gallant Red Cadeaux in a dramatic renewal of the great race.

Protectionist had been elevated to favourite following his eye-catching run to finish fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes but eventually started at 7-1. The race did not go entirely to plan for the Andreas Wohler-trained four-year-old as he lost his position early on. Ryan Moore refused to panic and bided his time before bursting through runners in the home straight and win by four lengths.

Ed Dunlop’s Red Cadeaux finished second for the third time in the race, an incredible achievement for the eight-year-old. While Dunlop admitted that time was not on the horse’s side, he did not rule out the prospect of returning yet again in 2015.

The places went to Who Shot Thebarman and Signoff with Godolphin’s Willing Foe finishing an honourable fifth. There was a sad postscript to the race with the favourite Admire Rakti and Araldo both incurring fatal injuries. The Japanese-trained winner of the Caulfield Cup collapsed after the race while Araldo kicked a fence after apparently being distracted by a flag-waving spectator.

The race also produced several disappointing runs, notably from the well-backed Fawkner and Lucia Valentina, both beaten horses as soon as they turned for home. It completed a fantastic double for Moore who won the Cox Plate on Adelaide for Aidan O’Brien.

The winner is part-owned by Australian Bloodstock who will probably send the horse to Kris Lees to train for the major Sydney races during March and April. The Irish duo of Mutual Regard and Royal Diamond also faded badly while My Ambivalent never gave herself a chance of seeing out the trip by racing freely early on. The low draw scuppered the chances of Seismos who immediately dropped back to last before running on to finish ninth.

The result was generally a good one for bookmakers despite the early support for Protectionist. There was plenty of support for Admire Rakti, Fawkner, Mutual Regard and Lucia Valentina. Sportsbet will be refunding bets on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses following their special offer.

Full result; 1st Protectionist 7-1, 2nd Cadeaux Genereux 20-1, 3rd Who Shot Thebarman 20-1, 4th Signoff 7-1.

Melbourne Cup 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Our ante-post selection for the Melbourne Cup was Ireland’s Mutual Regard at 20-1 and his price has almost halved. With Damien Oliver booked and a perfect draw in barrier 12, we are hoping for a good run from the Ebor winner on Tuesday.

My one concern is his lack of a previous race in Australia which means that he will be having his first race for 73 days on Tuesday. Vintage Crop managed to win the race without any previous outings down under but he was an exceptional stayer.

The favourite Admire Rakti should make a bold bid to defy top weight and has also drawn nicely in barrier 8. Zac Purton will be content to bide his time on the six-year-old who surprised connections by having the speed to win the Caulfield Cup. You would have to fancy him to come out on top of those that contested that race and no fewer than nine take him on again here.

Lucia Valentina was ridden to get the trip that day and rattled home late in third under Kerrin McEvoy. That does not convince me that she will see out the trip here and mares have a poor record in the race, with the obvious exception of Makybe Diva. Brambles, Araldo, Lidari and Junoob all finished in a heap but the draw has dealt a blow to three of those. I thought Araldo ran particularly well and might make the frame here but he has drawn barrier 24.

Protectionist has been prepared specifically for this race by Andreas Wohler and he secured the services of Ryan Moore some time ago. He meets Signoff on identical terms to when finishing fourth and second respectively in the Herbert Power Stakes. Anyone who gambled on Signoff at long odds before the Lexus will be feeling very pleased with themselves but any value has now gone.

Sportsbet are refunding stakes if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Melbourne Cup and I’m going to recommend Fawkner to back up our earlier investment on Mutual Regard. I was impressed with his win in the Caulfield Stakes and he produced a run not unlike that of Fiorente a year ago when second in the Cox Plate. I think it will be very difficult to keep him out of the first four and he is perfectly drawn in barrier 9.

Ante-post Mutual Regard @20-1

Fawkner @9-1 Sportsbet*

*Special offer – stakes refunded if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th (max. $100)