Tag: Melbourne Cup betting

Melbourne Cup To Remain On Home Soil

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The “race that stops a nation” might sound clichéd, but it’s pretty close to the mark. At 3pm AEDT tomorrow (Tuesday), Australians across the expanse of the continent will stop work and either watch or listen to the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup from Flemington in Melbourne. Even the most blasé will be quietly cheering on their Melbourne Cup betting pick from the office sweep, or the horse with a quirky name or wearing their favourite colours.

For those hoping to combine the day with the real thing, there are a staggering 42 TAB or picnic meetings scheduled – from Ascot to Alice Springs, Mount Isa to Morphettville and everywhere in between. Racing is big business in Sydney, but Royal Randwick’s biggest crowd of the year is Melbourne Cup Day. Meanwhile, the Flemington Lawn on the first Tuesday in November is one of the few places that you are likely to witness someone dressed as a horse watching the horses go by – it’s a day where anything goes trackside.
A Melbourne Cup deserves Melbourne weather

An iconic Melbourne day deserves some of the city’s unpredictable weather, with the forecast for a cool and clear morning giving way to afternoon showers with winds up to 20km/h. The latter is a major factor at Flemington – the wind sweeps up along the Maribyrnong River from nearby Port Phillip Bay. Astute jockeys know where it’s important to find cover from the wind, which was a huge factor here on Turnbull Stakes day.

There’s only been minimal rainfall since Derby Day so the track should again fall into the good (4) range and there’s unlikely to be an upgrade if it stays cool. The track raced very evenly on Saturday, so it isn’t terribly relevant that the rail remains in the true position. It also remains a day where it’s bloody tough to find a winner – the smallest fields contain 14 runners with the bulk closer to capacity.

Massive public money a boon for punters

The Melbourne Cup is unlike any other race of the year for serious punters. Public money floods into the betting pools like no other day, and the bookies are more than happy to let them get on. The favourites are almost always under the odds (as is the case with the top two, Hartnell and Jameka, this year) but there’s a stack of value on the rest of the genuine contenders.

The blanket media coverage and myriad expert opinions make it tough to stay objective, and as Prince Of Penzance showed in 2015, history can count for nothing depending on the circumstances of the day. But it would surprise if the winner did not emerge from this quartet – #9 Almoonqith ($31 with William Hill), #11 Grand Marshal ($34), #12 Jameka ($7.50) and #17 Almandin ($11). The Caulfield Cup winner Jameka just might turn out be in the class of Makybe Diva but can’t be seriously entertained at such a short quote.

Waller to end his Cup drought

Instead, Grand Marshal looks the bulletproof pick. Trainer Chris Waller presides over the dominant stable in the country, but the nation’s biggest prize has so far eluded him. He left Flemington gutted after Preferment fell short last year, but was buoyant after his Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) quinella of Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. His seven-year-old gelding also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) over the stablemate in the autumn, and he’s had a generously spaced prep heading into his grand final. Notably, Grand Marshal missed his planned lead-up run in the Geelong Cup due to administrative oversight, which will make a nice headline for the local sub-editors should he pinch the ultimate prize in Australian racing. Good luck punters!

Makybe Diva Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The futures betting for the Melbourne Cup this year has been dominated by the grey Puissance De Lune who is trading as 5-1 favourite. His position as outright market leader could come under threat this weekend as Sea Moon makes his long awaited debut in Australia.

European fans will be very familiar with Sea Moon who was trained by Sir Michael Stoute until finishing down the field in the Arc last season. He first made the headlines when bolting up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He went into that race on the back of a victory in a handicap off a mark of 92. After being held up by Richard Hughes, he cruised through to lead over a furlong from home still hard on the steel. When Hughes pressed the button, Sea Moon stretched clear to win by eight lengths from Al Kazeem.

It would be foolish to take that form literally as Al Kazeem is clearly a much improved performer this season. He slammed last year’s Derby winner Camelot in Ireland before winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Coral Eclipse at Sandown park. Not surprisingly, Sea Moon was a short priced favourite for the St Leger but could only stay on into third place behind Masked Marvel after meeting with interference. Connections were understandably disappointed but he proved that running to be all wrong when running at the Breeders’ Cup.

Although proving no match for St Nicholas Abbey, he ran on well to finish second, beaten just over 2 lengths. He had to work hard to hold off Dandino at Goodwood on his first start as a four-year-old but was back to his brilliant best when winning at Royal Ascot. His victory in the Hardwicke Stakes reads like a “Who’s who” of recent Melbourne Cup races. He beat Dunaden and Red Cadeaux by three and a half lengths and three-quarters of a length. Jakkalberry was fifth, Fiorente was sixth and  My Quest For Peace finished tenth.

He went on to finish a close fifth in the King George at Ascot before struggling in the heavy ground in the Arc. His official rating in the UK was 124. Puissance de Lune has been simply awesome and the variety of distances that the top Australian horses are asked to race over is quite astonishing compared to their European competitors. The grey won over 13 furlongs last season and was last seen winning over seven furlongs in August. This weekend’s race is just short of a mile, a distance half a mile short of anything tackled by Sea Moon since 2011.

Puissance de Lune will be making his debut at Group 1 level and will meet his rivals on weight-for-age terms. Masked Marvel is also making his Australian debut but his victory in the Leger (2937m) suggests he will be struggling for pace. The field also includes the Anthony Freedman-trained Waldpark who finished half a length second to leading Arc hope Novellist on his last start in Germany.

One horse that will not be inconvenienced by the trip is former Henry Cecil-trained Jet Away. The six-year-old has won the Golden Mile (1600m) and Group 3 Easter Cup (2000m) since arriving from England. 2012 Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and three-time Group 1 winner Manighar are also in the line-up.

The bookmakers are showing Puissance de Lune at $1.70 for Saturday’s race. He has fitness on his side but Sea Moon ($8.00) and Jet Away ($13.00) are serious opponents. If they are fit enough to do themselves justice on Saturday we could see a major shake-up in the futures market for Flemington.

Sea Moon $8.00 Sportsbet

Jet Away $13.00 Sportsbet

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A couple of weeks ago I selected Dandino at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup and he did his chances no harm when winning the American St Leger. A tilt at the big race is now firmly on the cards for the six-year-old and his trainer Marco Botti knows how to prepare a horse for Flemington. Twelve months ago he saddled 80-1 outsider Jakkalberry to finish third behind Green Moon and the best price available for Dandino is now 25-1.

European horses have been travelling down to Australia with high hopes for many years but a win still eludes the Brits. Ireland and France have enjoyed some success and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is another raider from the Emerald Isle with sound claims. Although beaten by Godolphin’s Ahzeemah in the Lonsdale Stakes at York last week, he was greatly inconvenienced by having to make his own running. For a horse that stays in excess of two miles, he is blessed with a useful turn of foot and many of his previous wins have come through a telling burst of speed.

The post-race coverage was mostly concerned with Godolphin and whether Ahzeemah would be joining impressive Newbury scorer Royal Empire in this year’s assault on Australia’s greatest race. Ahzeemah was soundly beaten by Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and that horse could also be Melbourne-bound. Of the two, I much prefer Brown Panther who was second in the Group 1 St Leger as a three-year-old but is only now fulfilling his potential.

Also behind Brown Panther at Goodwood was Luca Cumani’s Mount Athos, an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year. He reappeared at the Sussex track on Saturday to run second to the in-form Harris Tweed and could be on the way back to his best. Cumani has twice saddled the runner-up at Flemington and felt that Mount Athos was the best horse he had taken over for the race last season. Two severe bumps ruined any chance that he may have had but, as a hold-up horse, he is always going to be reliant on a decent draw and luck in running.

The home team have the first and second favourite in the ante-post market with Puissance De Lune and Fiorente. UK racing fans will know Fiorente from his days with Sir Michael Stoute and it was no surprise that he ran as well as he did on his debut for Gai Waterhouse. He did his prospects no harm when finishing second to All Too Hard over an inadequate trip in April and his home reports are encouraging.

Puissance De Lune has gone from strength to strength and confirmed his well-being with a comeback win at Caulfield earlier this month. Although he has an obvious chance, a top price of 7-1 is not tempting with over 2 months to go to the race. Another former Stoute inmate, Sea Moon, is also high on the betting lists along with It’s A Dundeel but both horses could have other targets along the way.

You cannot rule out Red Cadeaux after his second to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The 2011 runner-up is likely to run off a similar mark of around 115 and he certainly has experience on his side. Whilst it appeared a decent race on paper, I am a little concerned that the entire field finished within 8 lengths of each other.

As much as I like Brown Panther, I am mindful of the poor record of British runners and prefer to side with Irish raider Simenon. He has all of the right attributes to run a big race in Melbourne and 25-1 represents a fair bet.

Dandino 33-1* (16th August)

Simenon 25-1 Bet365