Tag: Aidan O’Brien

2000 Guineas Preview

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The first classic races of the 2015 season are only a week away with the 2000 Guineas first up on Saturday.

Aidan O’Brien could saddle as many as four here but there is little doubt that Gleneagles is the one expected to lift the prize. He has not been seen since being controversially disqualified in the Grand Criterium at Longchamp’s Arc meeting in October. He was deemed to have caused interference to the second Full Mast and third Territories, the latter being set to re-oppose at Newmarket.

Gleneagles is a son of Galileo and has also been handed a Derby entry so he is following a similar pattern to Camelot and Australia. The money was all for Gleneagles a few weeks ago and nothing has really happened in the trials to challenge his position as favourite.

Stable companion Highland Reel was a very impressive winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last summer after winning his maiden by 12 lengths in Ireland. He looked more of a middle distance performer that day and could be joined by the unbeaten Ol’ Man River and War Envoy.

Andre Fabre plans to supplement Territories on Monday after coming through his trial satisfactorily in the Prix De Fontainebleau at Longchamp. He has half a length to make up on Gleneagles but connections obviously feel that he is capable of doing so.

The Greenham Stakes looked like an excellent trial on paper but is seems to have left us with more questions than answers. Estidhkaar has emerged as second favourite at around 7-1 after being beaten by Muhaarar who is still available at 25-1. That suggests that the Greenham winner may be heading to the French Guineas while Ivawood and Belardo were very disappointing.

Kool Kompany appears to have won a sub-standard Craven Stakes while Elm Park has always looked a more likely Derby contender. His victory in the Racing Post Trophy had all of the hallmarks of a horse bound for Epsom and you have to wonder whether he will have the speed for the Guineas. Andrew Balding would probably be delighted with a staying on fourth place here with all roads leading to Epsom.

It is difficult to see anything else emerging from the trials with a serious chance and this looks like yet another classic success for Ballydoyle.

Gleneagles @9-4 888Sport

Ervedya 16-1 for 1000 Guineas after Imprudence win

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The 1000 Guineas may seem a long way off with the build-up currently in full swing for next week’s Grand National, but the first meaningful trial of the season has already taken place.

His Highness The Aga Khan won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffite on Thursday with Ervedya, a daughter of Siyouni out of a King’s Best mare. The race was over seven furlongs in heavy ground and Christophe Soumillon bided his time before cutting through the field to win impressively.

It is worth remembering that subsequent Guineas winner Miss France was only sixth in this race last year. Ervedya has top class form from last year and was boosting the credentials of favourite Found, her conqueror in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Ervedya was badly drawn that day so had to be brought across from stall 12 and make the running. She travelled well in the lead until Found was driven up alongside and quickened away to win by two and a half lengths. Queen Bee was fifth that day and filled third spot at Maisons-Laffitte so the form is looking solid.

William Hill offer the best price of 16-1 about Ervedya for Newmarket and that would be great value on soft ground. She has won on good ground but her trainer may consider the French Guineas a better option.

Andre Fabre has confirmed that High Celebrity will run at Newmarket and will not be having a prep race. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was not risked in the testing conditions this week and will hope to make it third-time-lucky in Suffolk next month. She was beaten at odds-on in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes in July and finished third to Tiggy Wiggy in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time.

Found reportedly had a temperature last month but is back on course for the Guineas where she is likely to be joined by Together Forever, winner of the Dubai Fillies’ Mile in October. She was runner-up to Found at the Curragh in August but improved throughout the season, winning her last three starts. The going was soft when she beat Agnes Stewart by half a length over a mile with Winters Moon just a nose away in third.

Aidan O’Brien has declared himself to be delighted with Together Forever who is currently a top price of 14-1 with Boylesports. Richard Hannon’s Tiggy Wiggy is freely available at 20-1 with question marks about her stamina while Lucida and Fadhayyil are also prominent in the ante-post market. The latter is going straight to Newmarket for veteran trainer Barry Hills following her second place in the Rockfel Stakes.

Adelaide 6-1 for QE Stakes after Cox Plate win

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Trainer Chris Waller may have been disappointed with the performances of his three runners in Saturday’s Cox Plate but he did pick up a fine consolation prize. The brilliant winner Adelaide now joins his stable from Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien with the Queen Elizabeth Stakes as his immediate target.

Adelaide had been popular with punters last week at odds as high as 14-1 but confidence had evaporated following his wide draw in barrier 13. The coolest man on the racecourse was jockey Ryan Moore who settled the colt in last place before passing his rivals one-by-one down the back straight.

He still had plenty of work to do turning for home with The Cleaner having set a decent pace but Adelaide was driven up on the wide outside to score by a short-neck from the favourite Fawkner. Silent Achiever was just a short-head away in third with Side Glance, Foreteller and Happy Trails breathing down their necks.

Adelaide has been a progressive three-year-old this season, winning the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh in May before finishing runner-up to Eagle Top at Royal Ascot. O’Brien has sent the son of Galileo on his travels since, finishing second at Belmont before winning the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington. He was unlucky in running when third to Ectot at Longchamp in the Prix Niel last time out.

O’Brien declared the $3million Cox Plate to be the colt’s target due to his liking for fast ground. The alternative had been the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe which is often run on soft ground in Paris. His decision has been fully vindicated and he is now set to clash with the likes of Just A Way and Lucia Valentina in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Bet365 quote Adelaide at 6-1 in their futures market.

Fawkner lost nothing in defeat and remains 10-1 for the Melbourne Cup next month. New Zealander Silent Achiever stormed home in third and is generally 25-1 for Flemington for which Japan’s Admire Rakti remains favourite at 4-1. The winning time of 2.03.76 was just two tenths of a second outside of Might And Power’s record set in 1998. It is the first time that a European trained horse has won the Cox Plate and the attention now switches to the Melbourne Cup.

O’Brien does not have a runner this year but Ryan Moore has a leading chance on the German-trained Protectionist while confidence is growing behind Irish hope Mutual Regard. Godolphin will also attempt to end their Cup hoodoo when they run both Cavalryman and Willing Foe on November 4th.

York Wednesday Preview

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The Ebor meeting at York kicks off on Wednesday with a top quality card including the reappearance of English and Irish Derby winner Australia.

His Epsom form may have been devalued since but there is no doubt he is the star middle-distance colt of his generation. The Irish Derby told us nothing as it was little more than a training exercise for Ballydoyle and Aidan O’Brien has expressed some concern over the colt’s fitness. He is also dropping back to a mile and a quarter and meeting older horses for the first time.

He should comfortably see off the other three-year-olds but it will be interesting to see how he matches up with Telescope and Mukhadram. The latter should come out on top in that particular clash with this trip much more to his liking than the mile and a half at Ascot last time. He stuck on gamely enough but is at his best at a truly run ten furlongs. He should provide a good test but Australia’s pace can prove decisive.

His closest pursuer at Epsom was Kingston Hill who goes for the early Great Voltigeur Stakes over the Derby distance. Roger Varian pulled him out of the Irish Derby owing to the quick ground and it would be ironic if he runs him here on a similar surface. He really does like a bit of give in the ground so looks a slightly risky proposition unless there is overnight rain.

The Acomb Stakes looks well above average with some promising colts assembled. Top of the list is Basateen who earned Derby quotes when winning by eight lengths at Doncaster last time. He already looks as though he wants a proper stamina test so I’m expecting Paul Hanagan to have him at the head of affairs from the start.

Growl and Dutch Connection both won nicely last time and I was particularly taken with the latter. It may have been a moderate race at Goodwood but he was always moving easily and looks worth an each-way bet here.

The card opens with the kind of race where a pin is as likely to find the winner as hours of form study! Goldream and Move In Time fought out a great finish in the Shergar Cup and are handicapped to dead-heat but I’m just swayed by the early money for last year’s winner Bogart.

It doesn’t get any easier for punters later on but Bantam could be the answer to the two-mile handicap. Ed Dunlop has booked Ryan Moore for the ride and the filly may have needed her run at Ascot after a lengthy absence. She is not proven over this trip but shapes as though she will get it.

Finally, I have to invest in Prize Exhibit after her nine-length demolition of a couple of promising colts at Nottingham. She looked as though she may not enter the stalls at one point but settled well in the race and won pulling a cart. A 6lbs penalty won’t stop her if she is in the same frame of mind.

Bogart 1.55 at 16-1 Stan James

Basateen 2.30 at 5-2 BetVictor

Dutch Connection (each-way) at 14-1 William Hill

Kingston Hill 3.05 at 6-4 Bet365

Australia 3.40 at 4-6 Skybet

Bantam 4.20 at 8-1 Paddy Power

Prize Exhibit 4.55 at 9-1 Bet365

Epsom Derby 2014 Preview

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The Derby market has been dominated for months by Aidan O’Brien’s Australia, although we can expect to see his price drift towards 2-1 as the race nears. The fact that Ballydoyle run their usual mob of horses raises the usual questions and Ryan Moore complicated things further by choosing Geoffrey Chaucer over Chester Vase winner Orchestra.

Australia does have the best form in the book with his third in the 2000 Guineas but I wouldn’t be going overboard to back him at silly prices. Camelot came here after winning the Guineas in workmanlike fashion but it turned out to be a weak Derby. This year’s race is hard to weigh up but at least there is a decent turn-out.

The race won on a disqualification by Fascinating Rock is open to all forms of interpretation. The winner was not suited by the slow gallop, the runner-up Ebanoran quickened impressively but the vibes from the stable are weak. Geoffrey Chaucer didn’t get a great run up the rail but did no more than stay on to my eyes and I cannot see why he is suddenly all the rage.

The Chester Vase looked as though Orchestra was about to emerge as a strong second favourite for the Derby when he cruised around the home turn to take up the running. Whether it was greenness or lack of stamina I don’t know but he wandered in the closing stages and just held off Romsdal. If you had frozen the tape at the home turn you’d have said Orchestra would win by five lengths. I am still inclined to support him at an each-way price in preference to his stable companions.

I believe that Romsdal was flattered to get so close and I don’t like Western Hymn. He put in a laboured performance last time and I’m not convinced that he’s up to this task. The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby (I still don’t believe it is worthy of the name over a mile and a quarter) has convinced some scribes that the Dante form is top class. I felt that True Story ran like a non-stayer while Arod showed his inexperience and could be a Leger prospect.

Our only surviving ante-post bet is on Kingston Hill. The saving grace with him is that Roger Varian has his stable in great form. He won’t mind a bit of cut in the ground either but he is not certain to stay. The Lingfield Trial looked distinctly ordinary so we’ll add Orchestra to Kingston Hill and hope to upset the favourite.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 (ante-post)

Orchestra at 16-1 (Paddy Power)

Lingfield Saturday Preview

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Aidan O’Brien resumed normal service at Chester this week by winning the two Derby trials. Whether or not we see Orchestra and/or Kingfisher at Epsom is open to question but he may not be finished yet.

It’s classic trial day at Lingfield (on turf!). The going is reported to be good so they must have missed most of the wet stuff and both the Oaks and Derby trials look worthy of close attention.

The aforementioned Master of Ballydoyle runs two in the Derby Trial. Mekong River has much the better form having finished fourth in a Group 1 last season. Joseph O’Brien partners him with Ryan Moore aboard the unbeaten Blue Hussar. Moore teamed up with Orchestra earlier in the week and could be on the right one here too.

The form of his maiden win may be nothing to write home about but the style of his victory suggests he is a smart colt in the making. He is a son of Montjeu out of a Woodman mare and found seven furlongs a bit on the sharp side last November. Once he got to the home straight he overhauled seven or eight horses. I suppose you could question whether or not he will handle Lingfield but I expect him to get the trip.

Of the other runners, I have respect Munjaz who is a big burly colt with a future. He won his maiden at a time when anything trained by John Gosden was winning but things are a bit more difficult now. Sudden Wonder’s Newmarket form is nothing out of the ordinary and Blue Hussar represents the value bet.

The Oaks Trial at 2.20 sees the return to action of Andrew Balding’s Casual Smile. I’ve always had a soft spot for this filly because she is by Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Casual Look. I backed her mum at 14-1 for the Oaks and this filly could be just as useful. She ran well in all three starts at two and I have written at length about Taghrooda’s victory in the past. I rate that the best maiden of the season and the form looks pretty good now!

You never know what to expect from fillies, the Cheshire Oaks being a case in point earlier this week. Sir Michael Stoute runs Queen’s Prize in the Royal colours. She won on her debut on the all-weather but this marks a big step up in class. Ralph Beckett loves this race but I doubt even he knows which is the best of his three. Stick with Casual Smile to boost the Taghrooda form yet again.

Casual Smile 2.20 Lingfield 3-1 Bet365, BetVictor

Blue Hussar 2.55 Lingfield 6-1 William Hill