York Preview – Wednesday 13th May

The York Dante meeting will surely clarify the picture for this year’s Epsom Derby. I can’t remember ever having a handicap winner at the head of the Derby market going into the York meeting but Jack Hobbs has some serious rivals including Elm Park and John F Kennedy. The big race is on Thursday but there is some cracking entertainment on the opening day including the Musidora Stakes.

Together Forever was expected to line up in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket but she missed the race, along with stable companion Found. That horse was beaten at odds-on when she did finally appear and Together Forever shoulders a 4lbs Group 1 penalty on Wednesday. Her main rival is Star Of Seville who was a comfortable winner at Newbury for John Gosden. She beat Ooty Hill and the disappointing Winters Moon so it is easy to pick holes in the form.

The day’s feature race is the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes with some very promising sprinters in action. I am reluctant to pass over Naadirr, having tipped him ahead of his impressive win at Doncaster. However, I followed Muthmir religiously last season and he ended the season in fine style by winning the Portland Handicap. Lightning Moon is another worthy of respect and is unbeaten in three starts. It certainly looks a cracking renewal and should provide a good guide to the top sprints this season.

Mahsoob also gave us a winner when beating a big field at Newbury. I was concerned about his high draw that day and he has not fared any better here with stall 18. Field Of Fame was third that day and also ran a terrific race for such an inexperienced horse. We’ll keep faith with Mahsoob who has some very ambitious entries this summer including the Eclipse at Sandown.

The sprint handicap at 2.40 looks wide open and a good case can be made for Pipers Note and Polybius. I’m going to take a chance on Algar Lad who didn’t see much daylight up the far rail last time but was only beaten a little over a length at the line. He looks worth each-way support at around 16-1.

It could be a great day for William Haggas who follows Muthmir with two live chances in handicap races. Foreign Diplomat won with his head in his chest last time out and Graham Lee will be looking to deliver him late on in the 4.20. Ryan Moore gets the leg up on the unbeaten Osaruveetil in the final race. He looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 81 after winning well at Kempton. Frankie Dettori can steer home Dheban for Richard Hannon in receipt of 10lbs from Ravenhoe in the two-year-old race.

Mahsoob 2.10 @7-2 William Hill

Algar Lad 2.40 @16-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

Muthmir 3.15 @5-1 Paddy Power

Together Forever 3.45 @7-4 Paddy Power

Foreign Diplomat 4.20 @7-1 Betfair

Dheban 4.50 @Evens Bet365

Osaruveetil 5.20 @11-2 Betfair

1000 Guineas Preview

At first glance, the 1000 Guineas market has a very similar look to the 2000 Guineas with Aidan O’Brien holding a strong hand. Found has been favourite since winning at Longchamp in October but the filly does not carry the same confidence as her stable companion Gleneagles in the colt’s classic.

The reason is that she suffered a minor setback a few weeks’ ago and O’Brien recently suggested that she may not make the Guineas. The Irish Guineas is an alternative and it would be no great surprise to see her stable companion Together Forever take over as favourite next week.

She is also a daughter of Galileo and won three times over a mile last season, suggesting that the Oaks may be her ultimate destination. She ended her campaign with victory in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile when beating Agnes Stewart on soft ground with Lucida behind in fifth. The third and fourth have been well beaten already this season so there is a slight question mark against the form.

It is interesting to see Jim Bolger’s Lucida in to as short as 6-1 for Newmarket despite that defeat. She looked useful when winning the Rockfel Stakes and fast ground could be the key to her. Barry Hills has prepared Rockfel runner-up Fadhayyil in much the same way as he did with Ghanaati in 2009. A racecourse gallop at Newmarket was deemed sufficient as the veteran trainer approaches his second retirement from the sport.

Osaila and Redstart won the big trials at Newmarket and Newbury last week but caused little more than a ripple in the ante-post market. Osaila just held New Providence in the Nell Gwyn Stakes while Redstart effectively ended the classic pretentions of Tiggy Wiggy in the Fred Darling. Neither race really screamed classic winner but Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance ran on well in third at Newmarket and I could see her reversing the form in the classic.

I suggested taking a little of the 40-1 available about Local Time after she stormed to victory in the UAE Guineas. The Godolphin filly followed up even more impressively in the UAE Oaks but is not yet a confirmed runner for Newmarket. If, as I suspect, Found does not make the classic, there could be a large field.

Local Time @43-1 Betfair

Ervedya 16-1 for 1000 Guineas after Imprudence win

The 1000 Guineas may seem a long way off with the build-up currently in full swing for next week’s Grand National, but the first meaningful trial of the season has already taken place.

His Highness The Aga Khan won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffite on Thursday with Ervedya, a daughter of Siyouni out of a King’s Best mare. The race was over seven furlongs in heavy ground and Christophe Soumillon bided his time before cutting through the field to win impressively.

It is worth remembering that subsequent Guineas winner Miss France was only sixth in this race last year. Ervedya has top class form from last year and was boosting the credentials of favourite Found, her conqueror in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Ervedya was badly drawn that day so had to be brought across from stall 12 and make the running. She travelled well in the lead until Found was driven up alongside and quickened away to win by two and a half lengths. Queen Bee was fifth that day and filled third spot at Maisons-Laffitte so the form is looking solid.

William Hill offer the best price of 16-1 about Ervedya for Newmarket and that would be great value on soft ground. She has won on good ground but her trainer may consider the French Guineas a better option.

Andre Fabre has confirmed that High Celebrity will run at Newmarket and will not be having a prep race. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was not risked in the testing conditions this week and will hope to make it third-time-lucky in Suffolk next month. She was beaten at odds-on in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes in July and finished third to Tiggy Wiggy in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time.

Found reportedly had a temperature last month but is back on course for the Guineas where she is likely to be joined by Together Forever, winner of the Dubai Fillies’ Mile in October. She was runner-up to Found at the Curragh in August but improved throughout the season, winning her last three starts. The going was soft when she beat Agnes Stewart by half a length over a mile with Winters Moon just a nose away in third.

Aidan O’Brien has declared himself to be delighted with Together Forever who is currently a top price of 14-1 with Boylesports. Richard Hannon’s Tiggy Wiggy is freely available at 20-1 with question marks about her stamina while Lucida and Fadhayyil are also prominent in the ante-post market. The latter is going straight to Newmarket for veteran trainer Barry Hills following her second place in the Rockfel Stakes.