The Derby market has been dominated for months by Aidan O’Brien’s Australia, although we can expect to see his price drift towards 2-1 as the race nears. The fact that Ballydoyle run their usual mob of horses raises the usual questions and Ryan Moore complicated things further by choosing Geoffrey Chaucer over Chester Vase winner Orchestra.
Australia does have the best form in the book with his third in the 2000 Guineas but I wouldn’t be going overboard to back him at silly prices. Camelot came here after winning the Guineas in workmanlike fashion but it turned out to be a weak Derby. This year’s race is hard to weigh up but at least there is a decent turn-out.
The race won on a disqualification by Fascinating Rock is open to all forms of interpretation. The winner was not suited by the slow gallop, the runner-up Ebanoran quickened impressively but the vibes from the stable are weak. Geoffrey Chaucer didn’t get a great run up the rail but did no more than stay on to my eyes and I cannot see why he is suddenly all the rage.
The Chester Vase looked as though Orchestra was about to emerge as a strong second favourite for the Derby when he cruised around the home turn to take up the running. Whether it was greenness or lack of stamina I don’t know but he wandered in the closing stages and just held off Romsdal. If you had frozen the tape at the home turn you’d have said Orchestra would win by five lengths. I am still inclined to support him at an each-way price in preference to his stable companions.
I believe that Romsdal was flattered to get so close and I don’t like Western Hymn. He put in a laboured performance last time and I’m not convinced that he’s up to this task. The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby (I still don’t believe it is worthy of the name over a mile and a quarter) has convinced some scribes that the Dante form is top class. I felt that True Story ran like a non-stayer while Arod showed his inexperience and could be a Leger prospect.
Our only surviving ante-post bet is on Kingston Hill. The saving grace with him is that Roger Varian has his stable in great form. He won’t mind a bit of cut in the ground either but he is not certain to stay. The Lingfield Trial looked distinctly ordinary so we’ll add Orchestra to Kingston Hill and hope to upset the favourite.
Kingston Hill at 10-1 (ante-post)
Orchestra at 16-1 (Paddy Power)
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
