Tag: The Fugue

Sandown Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is Coral Eclipse day at Sandown on Saturday. I previewed the race earlier in the week and sided with The Fugue in view of doubts surrounding the participation of many of her rivals. It is pouring down with rain up here in Scotland but apparently they are still basking in warm sunshine down south and the going remains good to firm.

Roger Varian is evidently keen to run Derby runner-up Kingston Hill after pulling him out of the farcical Irish Derby at the last moment. You can understand the need to be careful with these top-notch horses but it will be very puzzling if he lets him run on quick ground this weekend. Sceptics are focussing on the fact that The Fugue finished last in the Eclipse a year ago but she arrives in the form of her life this season and it doesn’t worry me.

The best bet on the card may be Queen Catrine in the Coral Distaff at 3.15. I had not realised what a fine race she ran in the Sandringham Handicap until I watched a re-run. Jamie Spencer had her plum last of 24 runners and she managed to overhaul everything bar the winner Muteela. I have been following Radiator with interest and she ran a fair race when eighth in the Coronation but she strikes me as a bit keen in her races and this small field may cause James Doyle problems.

I have never done particularly well in the Coral Challenge Handicap but I’m tempted to have a small each-way investment on Burano here for Brian Meehan. He was running well in Dubai through the winter and early spring and has had no luck at all since returning to these shores. The most significant snippet is that he is almost a stone better off with Gabrial’s Kaka for under five lengths on their Newbury Spring Cup form.

The Coral Charge could go the way of Stepper Point who just gets the vote ahead of Extortionist. This track suits front runners in sprints and Stepper Point had everything in trouble at Royal Ascot after three furlongs. I am concerned that he has had a series of hard races but these sprinters are as tough as old boots.

Finally, I’m taking a chance on course winner Reedcutter bouncing back to form in the opener. He pulled too hard and then ran into a pocket last time so did well to get within six lengths. This shorter trip should be in his favour and Richard Hughes is doing the steering.

Reedcutter 1.30 Sandown

Stepper Point 2.05 Sandown at 11-2 BetVictor

Burano 2.40 Sandown at 14-1 BetVictor

Queen Catrine 3.15 Sandown at 2-1 Skybet

The Fugue 3.50 Sandown at 9-4 William Hill

Coral Eclipse Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Irish Derby was void as a contest when Roger Varian pulled out Epsom runner-up Kingston Hill and the colt could be re-routed to the Coral Eclipse on Saturday. Commentators did their best to convince us that Australia was the best thing since sliced bread but he beat a couple of stable hacks in a virtual exercise gallop. I know that the horse could only beat what was lined up against him but it is ridiculous to keep hyping him up.

The Derby form proved disastrous last year and hopefully this year’s will prove stronger. At the time of writing, the sun is blazing down and there must be a real possibility of fast ground again at Sandown. Sir Michael Stoute has already suggested that Hillstar may miss the race for that very reason and I would not be surprised to see Kingston Hill do likewise.

One horse that won’t mind it fast is John Gosden’s admirable mare The Fugue. She will be racing over her best trip on ground that she loves (barring a change in the weather) and she was at her best when bolting up at Royal Ascot in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

The form of that race is open to question with Treve disappointing but The Fugue reversed Breeders’ Cup form with Magician and could be called the winner with two furlongs to travel. She is on offer at around 15-8 but could be closer to evens if more rivals drop by the wayside during the week. Last season she won the Yorkshire Oaks and the Irish Champion Stakes and can add another Group 1 to John Gosden’s collection.

It is always interesting to see how the three-year-old’s get on in this race and War Command is a possible runner for Aidan O’Brien. He ran on steadily without ever looking dangerous in the St James’s Palace Stakes and has a bit of ground to make up on runner-up Night Of Thunder. The extra two furlongs should favour him more than the Hannon horse but he does seem to have lost the sparkle of his Coventry Stakes win.

O’Brien also saddles American import Verrazano who was second to Toronado in the Queen Anne. He ought to get the trip having won over nine furlongs in the States but I didn’t think it was a particularly strong race at Ascot and I’m not sure he has a real turn of foot.

The Fugue at 9-4 BetVictor, Coral

Dubai World Cup Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

John Gosden pulled a fast one by switching The Fugue from the World Cup to the Dubai Duty Free and has set up a clash with Dank. The vibes from both Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute are very cautious as you may expect for a first run of the season.

There is no doubt that The Fugue has the class to win this but if she is at all rusty it could leave the way open for the in-form Just A Way. Having tipped Dank, I am a little concerned to see her pushed out to 13-2 and I’m going to back The Fugue in the hope that she is fit enough.

The World Cup does not look the strongest renewal and it provides Ruler Of The World with a great opportunity. I’m not convinced that Mukhadram and Hillstar are really top drawer and I can see the potential for a shock result here. I’m going to side with Hong Kong raider Military Attack and hope that he gets a clear run.

If the field for the World Cup is slightly disappointing, the same certainly isn’t true of the Sheema Classic. Aidan O’Brien trained Magician brilliantly to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf after a lengthy absence and he looks a good bet now that he is proven over a mile and a half. Ryan Moore can scarcely have ridden a better race than he did that day and he will be in no hurry again on Saturday.

The danger is likely to come from two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna. Moore rode her to a nose victory last year and will be looking to outwit Joseph O’Brien on Magician. It would be interesting to know which horse Moore would have ridden had he been given the choice.

Our old friend Simenon runs in the Gold Cup but has been done no favours by the draw. You may recall he came agonisingly close to landing a 33-1 tip for us in the Ascot Gold Cup and was placed fourth at the same odds in the Melbourne Cup. He certainly doesn’t owe us anything so we can invest a few pounds each-way on him here. The in-form Cavalryman is the one to beat as he seeks back-to-back victories in the race.

I’m a great fan of Breeders’ Cup form and I’m going to have a small bet on Flotilla at 12-1 in the mile. Nothing else really catches my eye and she would have an outstanding chance if back to her French Guineas form. It’s the best overall card that I can remember for this meeting and should give us plenty of clues for the season ahead. I still rate Long John the banker bet of the night at 9-4.

World Cup – Military Attack at 7-1 Paddy Power

Duty Free – The Fugue at 7-2 Coral, Dank at 13-2 Betfair SB

Sheema Classic – Magician at 100-30 SpreadEx

Gold Cup – Simenon at 7-1 Coral

Godolphin Mile – Flotilla at 12-1 Coral

UAE Derby – Long John at 9-4 Betfair SB

Dubai World Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Dubai World Cup at Meydan on March 29th gives us an early chance to see some of the star names in action. Last year’s Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World makes his return to action in a fascinating clash with The Fugue and several other International stars.

Ruler Of The World has not won since Epsom and the form of the classic suggested it was one of the worst in living memory. However, the colt did finish off his season by running third in the Champion Stakes and has to be respected.

John Gosden’s The Fugue was runner-up in both of her last two races, the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Hong Kong Vase. It was a frustrating end to the season for the mare after Group 1 victories in  the Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes.

Jockey William Buick was devastated when Ryan Moore swooped on Magician to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita but he should have several opportunities for further glory on the mare this season. I think she has the tactical speed to beat Ruler Of The World but I am more concerned about Hong Kong Gold Cup winner Military Attack. He had The Fugue’s Hong Kong conqueror Dominant three lengths away in third last month and arrives here fit and fancied.

The card also sees the return of Dank in the Dubai Duty Free. She had a fantastic season last year for Sir Michael Stoute, chalking up Grade 1 victories in the Beverly D Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. The big danger to her is the Japanese-trained Just A Way. He defeated two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna at Tokyo in October and a repeat of that form would make him very difficult to beat.

Magician is also back in action in the Sheema Classic over a mile and a half. He won the ten furlong Dee Stakes at Chester before winning the Irish 2000 Guineas over a mile. His only poor run came in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but he bounced back in style to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita.  He has Cirrus Des Aigles and Gentildonna to beat here in a race that looks every bit as good as the World Cup on paper.

Ryan Moore rode Gentildonna to her famous Japan Cup victory in November so he knows what he is up against. Magician looked a quality colt last year and can take this on his way to a successful season in Europe.

The Fugue (Dubai World Cup) at 6-1 SkyBet

Magician (Sheema Classic) at 4-1 Sportingbet

Dank (Dubai Duty Free) at 5-1 Coral

Hong Kong Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Bookmakers Sportingbet are featuring the four main races from Sha Tin this weekend and they are offering some great value bets on the European runners.

I have already previewed the prospects of The Fugue (Vase) and Moonlight Cloud (Mile) and am confident that they will give us a great run for our money. I am concerned about the prospect of fast ground for Moonlight Cloud but her class may see her through.

The Hong Kong Cup sets a similar poser with Cirrus Des Aigles clearly the best horse in the race but not certain to reproduce his best form on a fast surface. Sportingbet offer him at 5-1 which is very tempting! I would love to see him win this at the age of seven but I am haunted by his performance at Ascot in the King George where he patently hated the fast ground.

Normally I wouldn’t put Grandeur in the same league as Cirrus Des Aigles but the going can be a great leveller and the grey absolutely bounces off fast ground. Five of his seven victories have been on a fast surface and he comes here on the back of a light campaign.

He looked to have a leading chance in the Arlington Million this year before drawn in the car park. He made late headway into seventh place and can be rated a lot better than that. He went on to win nicely at Goodwood and Jeremy Noseda has had this race in mind for him all season. He is priced as high as 40-1 with Sportingbet and must have an each-way chance.

According to the bookies, the Sprint is going to be won by Lord Kanaloa. Admittedly he has an impressive wins to runs ratio and will be tough to beat, especially as the Europeans have never won the sprint here. However, I think that the two Irish horses are overpriced on their best form.

Sole Power won at Royal Ascot and Slade Power won on Champions’ day. Both of them like to hear their hooves rattle but the fact remains that Sole Power has yet to win beyond five furlongs. For that reason, I prefer the claims of Slade Power at a generous 14-1 with BetVictor.

Sportingbet also seem to be underestimating the claims of Galileo Rock in the Vase. They have priced him at 9-1 whilst he is a top priced 6-1 in the UK. The colt was third in the Epsom Derby, second in the Irish Derby and third in the St Leger. He is lightly raced and loves fast ground so I could see him sneaking into the frame.

Hong Kong Vase – Galileo Rock (each-way) 9-1 Sportingbet

Hong Kong Sprint – Slade Power (each-way) 14-1 BetVictor

Hong Kong Cup – Grandeur (each-way) 40-1 Sportingbet

Hong Kong Vase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

For those of us who are already experiencing withdrawal symptoms from the end of the flat turf season, the December 8th meeting at Hong Kong provides a welcome boost. The Hong Kong Vase sees The Fugue bidding to gain compensation for her last gasp defeat in the Breeders’ Cup.

Jockey William Buick was reportedly in tears after being pipped on the line by Ryan Moore on Magician. I don’t think that Buick did anything wrong in the race, although he may have been in front a bit longer than ideal. It was just a brilliant performance from Magician who had threatened to be in this class when he ran away with the Irish Guineas.

The track, distance and going should all suit The Fugue and she stands out as the class performer. With all due respect to the majority of the other European raiders, they could all still run in handicaps whilst The Fugue is in a different league. As much as I admire the Melbourne Cup exploits of Dandino, Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Mount Athos and Simenon, they should not be able to live with Gosden’s filly.

The possible exception is Galileo Rock who was placed in the English and Irish Derby and the St Leger at Doncaster. The Epsom Derby form produced one of the worst records in recent memory but it’s hard to fault this tough colt who also likes a fast surface. What he appears to lack is a finishing kick but I could see him reach the frame if he is positively ridden.

The Hong Kong Mile also looks destined to fall into European hands with the brilliant Moonlight Cloud standing head and shoulders above her rivals. Sky Lantern and Gordon Lord Byron have both put up superb performances this season but Moonlight Cloud has been simply phenomenal. She first caught my eye when flashing home behind Black Caviar at Ascot and she has now established herself as a top class mare in her own right.

Richard Hannon Senior has announced that he is handing over to Junior on January 1st and would dearly love to go out with a winner. Sky Lantern has had a long season but won well at Newmarket last time out and you have to respect her chance. I’m not often tempted to do a double but 7-4 seems generous about both horses as I feel they should both be around even money.

Hong Kong Vase – The Fugue 7-4 Bet365

Hong Kong Mile – Moonlight Cloud 7-4 Bet365

Double – The Fugue @7-4, Moonlight Cloud@ 7-4 Bet365