Tag: Galileo Rock

Hong Kong Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Bookmakers Sportingbet are featuring the four main races from Sha Tin this weekend and they are offering some great value bets on the European runners.

I have already previewed the prospects of The Fugue (Vase) and Moonlight Cloud (Mile) and am confident that they will give us a great run for our money. I am concerned about the prospect of fast ground for Moonlight Cloud but her class may see her through.

The Hong Kong Cup sets a similar poser with Cirrus Des Aigles clearly the best horse in the race but not certain to reproduce his best form on a fast surface. Sportingbet offer him at 5-1 which is very tempting! I would love to see him win this at the age of seven but I am haunted by his performance at Ascot in the King George where he patently hated the fast ground.

Normally I wouldn’t put Grandeur in the same league as Cirrus Des Aigles but the going can be a great leveller and the grey absolutely bounces off fast ground. Five of his seven victories have been on a fast surface and he comes here on the back of a light campaign.

He looked to have a leading chance in the Arlington Million this year before drawn in the car park. He made late headway into seventh place and can be rated a lot better than that. He went on to win nicely at Goodwood and Jeremy Noseda has had this race in mind for him all season. He is priced as high as 40-1 with Sportingbet and must have an each-way chance.

According to the bookies, the Sprint is going to be won by Lord Kanaloa. Admittedly he has an impressive wins to runs ratio and will be tough to beat, especially as the Europeans have never won the sprint here. However, I think that the two Irish horses are overpriced on their best form.

Sole Power won at Royal Ascot and Slade Power won on Champions’ day. Both of them like to hear their hooves rattle but the fact remains that Sole Power has yet to win beyond five furlongs. For that reason, I prefer the claims of Slade Power at a generous 14-1 with BetVictor.

Sportingbet also seem to be underestimating the claims of Galileo Rock in the Vase. They have priced him at 9-1 whilst he is a top priced 6-1 in the UK. The colt was third in the Epsom Derby, second in the Irish Derby and third in the St Leger. He is lightly raced and loves fast ground so I could see him sneaking into the frame.

Hong Kong Vase – Galileo Rock (each-way) 9-1 Sportingbet

Hong Kong Sprint – Slade Power (each-way) 14-1 BetVictor

Hong Kong Cup – Grandeur (each-way) 40-1 Sportingbet

Coral Eclipse Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It was great to get back to winning ways on Saturday courtesy of Lost In The Moment (11-2) and Nabucco (4-1). What a gallant effort by the Godolphin horse to get up and win after being clouted by the whips of rival jockeys! Don’t ask me how Barzalona managed to get himself boxed in with four runners at Newmarket but he got away with it.

Nabucco landed some big bets to return 9-4 favourite and he looks one to follow. As I mentioned on Friday, he is pencilled in for the Magnet Cup but it will depend how much the handicapper clobbers him. Gosden’s headline maker of the day was the debut performance of Remote’s half-brother Kingman.

The hot favourite was Man Amongst Men following his excellent run in the Newbury maiden in which Berkshire finished third. Ridden by Spencer and sporting the colours of Qatar Racing, he ran a race eerily similar to that of Beldale Memory at Ascot. That should not be allowed to distract from the six-length victory of Kingman who got better the further he went. Bookmakers have slashed his odds to 14-1 second favourite for the 2000 Guineas.

I must be getting old but that doesn’t sound a bad price to me? Up until War Command blitzed the Coventry field I had a healthy cynicism about quotes for the Guineas. Now here I am with two colts and still 9 months to go until the race! Perhaps next year will be a vintage classic season!

The Irish Derby seems to have confirmed initial impressions that this season’s crop are a modest bunch. I had expected far better from Ruler Of The World who was beaten with half a mile to travel and Godolphin will not be amused by the desperate performance of Libertarian. Galileo Rock emerged as the only one with his reputation intact and is justifiably 6-1 favourite for the St Leger. I think he will be even better with a bit of give in the ground and he looks the one to beat at this stage.

Our ante-post wager on Mars at 20-1 for the Eclipse looks ok with the horse quoted as low as 5-1 but there is still no confirmation from Ballydoyle that he will run. It does seem the most logical target but you couldn’t be too confident about the three-year-olds beating their elders.

Al Kazeem is too short at 6-4 after his hard race at Ascot. Roger Charlton may regret his decision to take this route rather than his first instinct to go for the King George. Mukhadram will be expected to adopt similar tactics that nearly paid off at the Royal meeting, forcing the pace from the outset. The Fugue finished well in third that day and Gosden has declared his intention to run. I think she is the most likely to improve from that race and is almost certain to be in the frame. I will take her at 5-1 and hope that the rain stays away.

Ante-Post Eclipse

Mars 20-1 Betfair

The Fugue 5-1 Coral

Ante-Post 2000 Guineas
Kingman 14-1 Coral

Ante-Post St Leger
Galileo Rock 6-1 Skybet

Irish Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Epsom Derby victory of Ruler Of The World was overshadowed by the dramatic self-destruction of the short-priced favourite Dawn Approach. An awful lot of rubbish has been written and spoken since including talk of a cunning plan by Aidan O’Brien to beat the Guineas winner by setting a slow pace!

The general consensus seems to be that it was not a great race with Ruler Of The World given the lowest rating for a Derby winner for many a year. Five of the runners have been beaten on their reappearance with Dawn Approach (St James’s Palace Stakes) being the only subsequent winner in the field to date.

The Irish Derby sets up a rematch between the first, second and third. Godolphin have moved in to purchase Libertarian who will be running his last race out the Burke stable before switching to Bin Suroor. They have also declared a pacemaker in the form of Cap O’Rushes in the hope of ensuring a suitably strong test for Libertarian.

Ruler Of The World could be joined by stablemate Festive Cheer but there are doubts over the participation of Battle Of Marengo and Count Limonade. The prospect of a pacemaker holds no fears for Ruler Of The World who settled well at Epsom but was chased up by Ryan Moore who could see that he needed to be nearer the front. He actually felt that he hit the front a bit early and there could easily be more improvement to come.

Galileo Rock, third at Epsom, is also set to line up this weekend but already looks as though the Leger distance would suit him better. He was always handily placed in the Derby but may lack a finishing kick. He is closely matched with Sugar Boy on Sandown form in May and the latter has also changed hands this week. Certainly that Sandown race leads a lot better now than it did at the time but Libertarian has come on in leaps and bounds since then and should have his measure.

John Oxx will be represented by Little White Cloud who has been beaten in the Derrinstown Trial and the Gallinule Stakes. Jim Bolger’s Trading Leather set a good clip in the Irish Guineas but had nothing extra in the closing stages and weakened into fourth behind Magician. He won a listed race over ten furlongs last time out but is not guaranteed to stay this trip.

I can see no reason why Ruler Of The World won’t confirm his supremacy over his Epsom victims and he is a top-priced 6-5 with Sportingbet.

Irish Derby Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World has been given an official rating of just 120, the lowest rating for a Derby winner this century. His figure is just one short of that given to Sir Percy who prevailed in a similarly bunched finish in 2006. Although Ruler Of The World had a length and a half to spare at the line, there were seven horses within four lengths at the end of a hugely controversial race.

For all the nonsense that has been said about Aidan O’Brien’s brilliant tactical move to slow the race down, the fact is that Dawn Approach destroyed his own chances by refusing to settle. I can think of many Guineas winners that did not stay the Derby distance but none that imploded so dramatically as Jim Bolger’s colt. That issue aside, what can we deduce about the future prospects for the first half dozen or so?

Ruler Of The World has been installed 15-8 favourite to follow up in the Irish Derby with runner-up Libertarian at 9-2, Battle Of Marengo 6-1, Galileo Rock and Mars 8-1. The betting suggests that the places should be confirmed at the Curragh. The problem with betting ante-post on the O’Brien horses is that you can never be too sure what is going to run where. Once again he has three of the first five in the market and other options including the Eclipse and the King George.

It was ironic that after such a sedate early pace the first three home were arguably the most stoutly-bred horses in the race. I was not keen on the Derby prospects of Libertarian after York because I felt that he would get too far out of his ground early on. To some extent this was true but he overhauled half a dozen horses in the last furlong and will almost certainly be supplemented for Ireland.

A couple of respected judges put up Galileo Rock as an each-way bet at huge prices last week and just scraped into third after racing prominently. It’s easy to imagine him developing into a leading St Leger contender but I’m not convinced that he has the speed to reverse the placings with the winner. Battle Of Marengo has yet to convince me that he stays a mile and a half and it wouldn’t surprise me if he bypassed the Curragh but Mars ran a hugely promising race.

Richard Hughes was probably hoping that the field would come back to him as they did in the Oaks a day previously but things did not pan out that way. Instead he found himself trying to make ground on horses that were quickening up the hill. He and Ocovango were the worst sufferers in the skirmishing that took place when the pace finally quickened but Mars ran on most encouragingly. He reminds me a little of Rip Van Winkle in that he finished out of the money at Newmarket and Epsom before proving to be top class over a mile to a mile and a quarter.

Because of my reservations about backing O’Brien’s horses ante-post, I am going to have to sit on the fence for the time being. I have a feeling that we may see Mars run in the Eclipse and Ruler Of The World run at the Curragh but I’m not about to risk my cash second-guessing the master of Ballydoyle.