Tag: Lethal Force

Betfred Sprint Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Haydock’s Betfred Sprint Cup on Saturday has attracted a field of 18 with July Cup winner Lethal Force a firm favourite at around 5-2. Clive Cox’s grey emerged as a contender for Champion Sprinter when winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot but it was his performance in the July Cup that put him at the top of the tree.

Settled in front by Adam Kirby, he was allowed to dictate a steady gallop before quickening at the two-furlong marker and readily holding Society Rock and Slade Power by a length and a half. Slade Power went on to win a Group 3 in Ireland before completely missing the break in the Nunthorpe and losing all chance. He was allowed to come home in his own time once it became clear that his chance had gone.

Clive Cox also runs the three-year-old Restless Abandon who ran a fine race at Haydock on his first outing of the season when beaten only a neck and a head by Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit. He next ran in the five-furlong King’s Stand Stakes where he finished a close fifth behind Sole Power without threatening to land a blow. Heeraat was sixth and Swiss Spirit finished eighth.

Gordon Lord Byron drops back from a mile after scraping home in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. He has finished behind Lethal Force at Ascot and Deauville this season. The most recent of those was the Maurice de Gheest where Lethal Force made the running before being overhauled by Moonlight Cloud. Gordon Lord Byron was second to Society Rock in this race 12 months ago but has generally looked more of a seven-furlong horse.

Aidan O’Brien relies on 2000 Guineas flop Cristoforo Colombo. He was beaten by Reckless Abandon in the Middle Park last season and has not raced since finishing over eight lengths adrift of Dawn Approach at Newmarket. Richard Fahey’s Garswood is an interesting contender but his style of racing suggests that a bit of cut will be needed if he is to have a chance over this trip. Ryan Moore had to get to work on him from some way out to get him up on the line in the seven-furlong Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.

Stewards’ Cup winner Rex Imperator was just touched off by Sirius Prospect at York over seven furlongs and takes a big step up from handicap company whilst Hamza has finished runner-up in his last three starts and is held by Heeraat on Newbury form. Mick de Kock relies on Kavanagh who made no show at Newmarket. Viztoria has not been seen since finishing sixth in the Coronation Stakes and is another that would benefit from any rain that falls. Former Stewards’ Cup winners Hoof It and Hawkeyethenoo have not shown a great deal in their recent starts.

Lethal Force should win this if he is in the same form as Ascot or Newmarket. Odds of 5-2 aren’t particularly attractive and there may be better value in the each-way market. Hawkeyethenoo was unlucky in the Duke Of York Stakes and was not far behind Society Rock. Things have not gone his way since but he was not disgraced in the Stewards’ Cup and he is better than a 40-1 shot. Heeraat is also worthy of consideration at 25-1 having finished close up behind Jwala at York.

Hawkeyethenoo 40-1 Paddy Power

Heeraat 25-1 Paddy Power

Newmarket July Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Things didn’t quite work out for us last week even though we got great value with our ante-post prices. Albasharah (tipped at 6-1) was backed to 5-4 favourite but could do no better than third. Mars (20-1) finished fourth whilst I feared the chances of Wentworth when he was drawn in the car park. In the circumstances he didn’t run badly at all and surely has a decent race in him.

The show moves on to the carnival atmosphere of the July course at Newmarket with the July Cup on Saturday. This has all the makings of a championship race with three Royal Ascot winners set to clash.

Sole Power was overlooked at Ascot after his sub-standard run in Haydock’s Temple Stakes. There was a general opinion that he had gone off the boil from the dazzling form that he showed at Newmarket and perhaps his spring campaign in Dubai had taken its toll. Not a bit of it. He was brilliantly produced by Johnny Murtagh to cut down Shea Shea late on and reverse placings with those that had beaten him soundly at Haydock.

Among them was Reckless Abandon, third at Haydock but only fifth at Ascot. I was surprised that connections opted for the King’s Stand Stakes rather than the six-furlong Diamond Jubilee Stakes. Clive Cox also saddles Lethal Force who showed that his York run behind Society Rock was no fluke when winning at Ascot. The runner-up had to take an unusual route to throw down his challenge but appeared to be well held at the line.

Gale Force Ten is an intriguing runner having won the seven-furlong Jersey Stakes. He looked to be in trouble when Montiridge loomed up alongside but pulled out more in the closing stages. There has been plenty of money for him from 10-1 down to 7-1 but I’m just a little concerned that he will be tapped for toe early on.

Sovereign Debt is another curious participant having been racing over a mile. He was an 80-1 shot when second to Farhh in the Lockinge but ran well below that at Ascot. He ought to have been closer to the runner-up Aljamaaheer even if we allow for Declaration Of War’s improvement.

The bookies have made Shea Shea favourite after his run behind Sole Power and have no doubt that he will reverse the form. Sole Power is as big as 14-1 due to the fact that he has never won over six furlongs. The South African won his race on the far side fair and square but cannot even have seen the Irish horse arriving on the opposite side of the course.

Sole Power’s stable companion Slade Power missed the break in the Jubilee and did well to finish as close as he did. He then won well over five furlongs at the Curragh and could run into a place here. It is difficult to make a case for any of the others.

The draw may come into play again here but Shea Shea is just about the form pick and 9-2 still represents a little bit of value.

Shea Shea 9-2 Paddy Power

Ascot 2013 – Each Way Betting Though The Card

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I have been having some fun at Ascot this year by betting each way through the card. My fellow tipsters think I am crazy but I have already turned a profit of £300. The way I have been playing this madness is by studying the form of the races one by one and picking out the following.

1. Has the horse placed in its last three run out?
2. Has the horse run the distance in its last three run outs?
3. Whats the distance compared to the Racing Post Top Speed rating?
4. Who the stable is and jockey?
5. What is the Racing Post rating for the horse?
6. Has the horse run on this ground before and placed or won?
7. Is the price good for a mega EW accumulator or EW single.

Has the horse placed in its last three run out?

I always look for a horse that has shown it can run the race its been entered in for. I then look for if its been placed in the last three of its races. This gives me confidence that this horse can place again. With the right jockey and ground it will give me the place if its got a track record of placing and winning.

Has the horse run the distance in its last three run outs?

If the horse has never run the distance then it has to be a horse that is showing some improvement. But to be honest for this type of bet you really need to lower the odds and select a horse that has run in the same or a better class race and has placed or run over the distance or more.

Who the stable is and jockey?

It is very important to know that Jockeys do have a major impact of the performance of a horse when it is racing. The Jockey will know how to ride the horse and get the best from the horse. Simple things like riding the horse in to the areas of the track which best suit the horses form, so getting the horse running in a more firmer part of the track rather than a softer part. Plus he will know when to push the horse so it can kick on to the finish. You will see the top jockeys know there horses and will ride the horse a few times in meetings before the race you are about to bet in. If a top jockey is going to ride a horse and swop from one stable to another that’s a good sign that this horse has a chance to place.

What is the Racing Post rating for the horse?

The Racing Post rating give you an indication of the quality of the horse and who its has run against and beat or placed. Its a good indication of the class of the horse and if its worth a punt in a race or just been entered so it gains a better rating in future races. Don’t be fooled by the Racing Post Rating it can sometimes be blown apart if a good horse is having a bad day and a new up and coming horse is having a good day. So air with caution when picking horses just on the Racing Post Ratings.

Has the horse run on this ground before and placed or won?

The ground does play a big part in a horses performance. Some horses really like soft ground and will run in mud and win. Some like it hard and will bounce off hard ground as if it was like rubber. You should always look if a horse has run and won or placed consistently on its preferred ground. The great horses can run on anything and win but they are very few and far between. You should always be cautious of horses that run on AW and then switch to turf as they are two different types of surface and not many horse cross between both and win or place. Stables will enter there horses in to All Weather races so give them a run out plus to keep them in the ratings. So don’t be put off by bad form if the horse is a Turf runner and has a bad day or night on the All Weather track.

Is the price good for a mega EW accumulator or EW single.

My final and foremost thing I look for is the value for my accumulator. I am looking for over 6/1 as then it will form a very good accumulator across the card. Don’t take SP always take the price and with a bookie that gives you Best Odds Guaranteed.

So here are my horses for the final day at Ascot 2013. I would suggest you pick and choose and make up small £1 EW bets throughout the day or maybe do a placepot or scoop6 on Totesport.

Have fun punting and don’t forget to join our mailing list for great tips on all sports.

Ascot – 2:30

Somewhat – 7/2 Will Hill
Bureau – 20/1 20/1 Will Hill
Freedom Square – 12/1 Ladbrokes
Bunker – 3/1 Coral
Friendship – 9/1 Skybet
Autumn Lily – 8/1 Paddy Power

Ascot – 3:05

Aiken – 10/1 Coral
Noble Mission – 12/1 Coral
Thomas Chippingdale – 11/1 Coral

Ascot – 3:45

Lethal Force – 10/1 Bet365
Maarek – 20/1 Will Hill
Dandy Boy – 12/1 Bet365

Ascot – 4:25

Gabriels Lad – 10/1 Will Hill
Pooles Harbour – 18/1 Ladbrokes
Royal Rock – 20/1 Coral
Nocturn – 11/1 Paddypower
Arnold Lane – 28/1 Coral
Prodigality – 22/1 Coral

Ascot – 5:00

The Tiger – 20/1 Bet365
Carvan Rolls – 7/1 Will Hill
Stencive – 8/1 Skybet
Rye House – 6/1 Coral
Beaumonts Party – 14/1 Skybet
Ustura – 9/1 Ladbrokes
Voddoo Prince – 20/1 Will Hill

Ascot – 5:35

Junior – 12/1 Bet365
Stopped Out – 14/1 Coral