The highlight of the third day of the Ebor meeting is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. I previewed this race a couple of weeks ago and recommended the progressive three-year-old Moviesta at 8-1. Brian Smart’s sprinter has drawn stall 17 which looks to give him an advantage if the racing follows a similar pattern to the opening couple of days.
The place to be seems to be middle to high in the sprint races and few horses drawn low have managed to get involved in the closing stages. Having watched a replay of the King George at Goodwood, I felt that Swiss Spirit was a little unlucky not to finish closer. After a tardy start, he made up ground rapidly before being hampered close home as Moviesta jinked to his left. Trainer John Gosden was clocking up winners left, right and centre prior to the start of the Ebor meeting and got off the mark with The Fugue on Thursday. I think 8-1 is a good each-way bet for Swiss Spirit providing stall 7 does not prove an inconvenience.
Simenon gave us a thrill with our ante-post bet on the Ascot Gold Cup, chasing home Estimate in a thrilling race. The Melbourne Cup has been touted as a possible end of season target for the Irish stayer and he can book his place by winning the Lonsdale Stakes. His rivals don’t look to be blessed with his turn of foot and it should be a straight forward case of Murtagh producing him approaching the final furlong.
The Group 3 Strensall Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for Sir Michael Stoute’s Pavlosk to gain compensation for a desperately unlucky run at Goodwood. She was held up at the rear of the field, a tactic that invariably proved fatal at the Sussex track this year, before running on powerfully to finish fifth to Annecdote. There are question marks against several of her rivals including the hard-to-steer Gabrial and Chester winner Danadana. Hopefully there will be a strong enough pace for Pavlosk to cut them down in the straight.
Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne cut down her stable companion Party Line on the opening day of the meeting and that horse could be back for more in the opener. Normally you would question a horse running again so quickly but Johnston’s horses are a rule unto themselves. This shorter trip could be ideal and 12-1 looks a fair price in an open contest.
Party Line 12-1 Paddy Power
Simenon 13-8 William Hill
Pavlosk 3-1 Bet365
*Moviesta 8-1 ante-post
Swiss Spirit 8-1 Coral
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
