Tag: Newmarket tips

Newmarket Friday Preview

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On Friday last week I picked out Lady Cecil’s Squire Osbaldeston at Nottingham but he was withdrawn when the ground became testing. His trainer obviously has a good opinion of him and decided to re-route him to Newmarket this week rather than risk him on a heavy ground and the move can pay off handsomely.

He went into my notebook when he was desperately unlucky at Goodwood in May, getting out all too late and finishing strongly in fourth behind Eshtiaal. There was clearly more to come from this good looking son of Mr Greeley but he did not reappear until September.

Under a confident ride from Tom Queally, he easily saw off Hawker by two and a half lengths at Lingfield and has the potential to be better than a handicapper. If that is the case, he should have little difficulty winning off a mark of 85 at Newmarket and rates the nap at odds of 2-1 with Paddy Power.

I have been singing the praises of young Oisin Murphy for quite a while and he struck again with a big odds treble last weekend. Not surprisingly, he is now in big demand while he has a handy 5lb claim and John Gosden is among those using his services.

I’m sure that Murphy will give Willow Beck a good ride in the 3.05 at an each-way price. The form of this filly is difficult to weigh up because she was bang there with Phaenomena and Astonishing here last month. Astonishing went on to win her next race by a country mile but Phaenomena looked as slow as a boat at Lingfield on Thursday. Even so, Willow Beck is game and consistent and the 5lbs off is a bonus.

Whatever Murphy’s fate on that one, he has sound claims on Ballinderry Boy who goes in search of a hat-trick for his retained stable of Andrew Balding at 3.40. He’s gone up 6lbs for beating Man Of Plenty at Ascot but that creature is not the most reliable and he can confirm the form.

Squire Osbaldeston 2-1 Paddy Power

Willow Beck 7-1 Bet Victor, Coral

Ballinderry 11-4 Bet Victor, William Hill

Cesarewitch Ante-Post Preview

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The Cesarewitch has recently been run largely for the benefit of National Hunt trainers with the likes of Messrs Henderson and Pipe enjoying considerable success. Henderson is back in search of more with his admirably consistent handicapper Lieutenant Miller but there are some classy horses in opposition.

Tiger Claw runs in the same colours as Lieutenant Miller and has not run since winning the Ebor for Lady Cecil. He is set to race off a 6lbs higher mark but connections have not been phased by that or by the prospect of lumping 9st 10lb between Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Clearly both horses are fit and fancied with Ryan Moore an eye-catching booking for Henderson’s charge.

The Irish are not averse to the occasional tilt at this valuable prize and plenty of punters see Domination as a likely winner after two easy wins over hurdles. I am slightly put off by the fact that he has risen 18lbs since winning here in the Cesarewitch Trial just over a year ago. Pallasator was considered a possible for the Ebor earlier in the season but did not reappear until Haydock last month when staying on dourly behind Platinum. He is still lightly-raced and bookmakers are always wary of Sir Mark Prescott’s runners in the big handicaps.

However, they are presently running scared after a plunge on French raider Smoky Hill. The horse has halved in price since trainer Mikel Delzangles declared his intention to run whatever the conditions. By coincidence, Delzangles had just started working for Jimmy Fitzgerald when Trainglot won the race in 1990 in the same colours that are to be carried on Saturday by Smoky Hill.

He has stated that the horse is very well handicapped, something that is quickly apparent when looking at his last run. He finished fourth in the Prix Gladiateur, a Group 3 race. To get some idea of the form lines, trailing in his wake were Genzy (104) and Aiken (112). Smoky Hill gets in here with a rating of just 91. Earlier in the season he had finished only a couple of lengths behind Melbourne Cup hope and Gold Cup third Top Trip (113).

It appears that he has about 10lbs in hand, if the official figures are correct. His trainer has confirmed that he’ll run irrespective of the ground conditions so 10-1 looks too good to refuse.

Smoky Hill 10-1 (Sportingbet)

Newmarket Day 3 Preview

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Ihtimal and Rizeena were both eclipsed by 28-1 shot Chrisellium and Channel 4 viewers were “treated” to repeated showings of Willie Carson doing a celebratory jig. He’s a part owner so he’s entitled to celebrate but it seems a bit strange that he should choose a Clive Brittain-esque routine, especially having just beaten Clive’s top filly? No doubt Channel 4 have their reasons for turning it into the Willie Carson show but it merely served to remind me to watch only the racing and switch off the guff in between.

As for the race? Well, I am disappointed that De Sousa held up Ihtimal in last place considering she was one of the few fillies absolutely guaranteed to get the mile. Rizeena was at least given a chance to win her race but she doesn’t like being in front too long and that was enough for Richard Hughes to seize his chance. I wouldn’t lose faith in either filly for the classics next season.

The Cheveley Park Stakes has lost some of its lustre with Rizeena having been diverted to the mile but it still throws up an interesting clash between Kiyoshi and Vorda. If Rizeena doesn’t like being in front, Kiyoshi is positively quirky! She ran sideways when winning at Royal Ascot and seemed to hang fire as soon as she was kicked ahead by Spencer in the Moyglare. That resulted in a disqualification and the pressure is on the jockey to make amends on Saturday.

Charlie Hills will be hoping to bag his second trial in two days but I think the French challenger may prove too strong. She won her first three races before being pitched in against the colts in the Prix Morny. She ran a cracker, just losing out to the impressive No Nay Never with Rizeena staying on into third. A repeat of that form should be good enough but Kiyoshi is the obvious threat.

I will be watching Berkshire’s return to action with interest in the Royal Lodge although I can’t support him after such a lengthy absence. I also have plenty of respect for Mark Johnston’s Somewhat after his Newbury win and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made his superior fitness count. I shall also bypass the Sun Chariot as it is now a long way back to the Guineas and there’s no telling whether Sky Lantern and Just The Judge are still on song.

Vorda (2.35) 2-1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)

Newmarket Day 2 Preview

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Friday’s card at Newmarket features arguably the most interesting clash of the week with Rizeena and Ihtimal meeting over a mile at 3.15. I am a big fan of both fillies and it is little wonder that they both figure highly in the ante-post market for next season’s 1000 Guineas.

When Rizeena surged through to take the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, most pundits were happy to disregard Clive Brittain’s rhetoric that she could be a Guineas filly as being typical of his optimistic outlook on life. When she was beaten by Lucky Kristale at Newmarket, it did seem that she may be more a speed machine but subsequent runs in France and Ireland have proved otherwise.

Her fast finishing third in France behind No Nay Never offered every encouragement that she would stay beyond six furlongs and she duly landed the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland. I  believe that her rivals played into her hands that day but she was the winner on merit and clearly has superior form to Ihtimal.

The Godolphin filly has improved with every race this season and I was very confident that she would win the May Hill at Doncaster. She was given a good lead by Majeyda before producing an impressive burst of speed to go clear. She had put in a similar display in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket previously, running on powerfully at the finish. She seems a straight forward filly whereas Rizeena might just have a tendency to hang fire when she hits the front.

I was expecting the odds to reflect that the race is a virtual match despite the presence of the unbeaten Sound Reflection and the useful Wonderfully. To my surprise, Ihtimal has been chalked up at 3-1 by Bet365. To my eyes, that is great value. If she is beaten by Rizeena then so be it, but I’d have thought she was a 2-1 shot or shorter.

The card opens with 15-length Lingfield scorer Radiator in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She meets much stiffer opposition here including Lightning Thunder who did us a favour at Doncaster and the French raider Miss France. Andre Fabre doesn’t waste his time sending over moderate horses so it could be an interesting little contest.

Other horses to  note on a top quality card include the smart maiden Yuften who passes up some Group race entries to run in the 3.50 and John Gosden’s Gatewood (4.25). The latter shaped well on his comeback race after a spell in Australia and could still have a future as a Cup horse.

Ihtimal (3.15 Newmarket) 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket Day 1 Preview

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Grandeur (tipped at 5-2) outclassed his rivals at Goodwood yesterday to take our level stakes profit over the past 21 selections to 18 points (85%). Long may it continue! Doncaster was an extremely profitable meeting with winners on all four days and the Town Moor form is likely to dictate whether or not we make a profit at Newmarket this week.

The Cambridgeshire meeting is a curious mixture of exciting two-year-old races and tricky handicaps featuring horses that are just possibly going over the edge after a long summer. With that in mind, I’m planning to stick to horses with recent form and not with too many miles on the clock.

The selection for Day 1 has to be John Gosden’s rapidly improving filly Phiz in the 3.10 race. This filly was having only the fourth start of her career when beaten by The Lark in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster two weeks ago. My regular readers will know that I am a great fan of The Lark having supported her in the Oaks and it is not surprising that she had too many guns for Phiz in the closing stages.

You may recall that it was the race where Hayley Turner suffered a terrible fall after her horse clipped heels. Fortunately both horse and rider were relatively unscathed but another feature of the race was the performance of the runner-up. Phiz is still learning her trade so she was a bit on and off the bridle but William Buick must have felt confident approaching the furlong pole. He turned his head to see where the dangers were and got the shock of his life to see Jamie Spencer breathing down his neck on The Lark!

Michael Bell’s filly ran out a good winner but Phiz responded well to pressure and the pair were four lengths clear of the third. There are some decent fillies in opposition tomorrow and Lady Cecil’s Court Pastoral could pose a threat along with Sir Michael Stoute’s Astonishing. Some lucky punters have snaffled up 9-2 about Phiz before I could get this posted but 7-2 still looks good value.

I’ll be interested to see how Nezar gets on in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes (3.40) as he impressed me at York and again at Chester. Repeater (4.15) also went into my notebook with a promising run in the Doncaster Cup. If you like well-bred two-year-olds, how about these two newcomers in the first on Thursday; King’s Land (New Approach – Kazzia) and Touch The Sky (Sea The Stars – Love Divine). They don’t get much better than that!

Phiz 3.10 Newmarket 7-2 Coral

Goodwood and Newmarket 24th August Preview

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Although most of the attention will be on the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, there are plenty of decent betting opportunities at Goodwood and Newmarket.

Anyone who saw Glen Moss cruise to success at Newbury to land a gamble last weekend will be happy to support him under a 6lb penalty in the Heritage Handicap tomorrow. I tipped him last week at 11-2 and was surprised as much by his SP of 5-2 as the ease of his victory. The confidence behind him was fully justified and I cannot let him go unbacked at around 6-1 this week.

Frankie Dettori gets the ride with the jockeys spread far and wide and he should be able to follow the pace from his draw in midfield. I am always wary of the Johnston horses in these handicap races and Galician gave Glen Moss a beating at Ascot and meets him on identical terms. The grey filly has run twice since and I’m hoping she doesn’t turn up to spoil the party.

Equally as impressive as Glen Moss was the performance of Afsare at Salisbury last time. Everyone knows that Afsare is a character having refused to enter the stalls previously and also finished second in the Arlington Million 12 months ago. If he’s on song tomorrow they won’t know which way he’s gone.

My old friends John Gosden and William Buick have a busy day lined up at Newmarket tomorrow. Fledged has already been backed off the boards before I could get my copy “to press” so there won’t be any 6-1 left by the time you read this. He looks progressive and is obviously expected to complete his hat-trick on Saturday.

Willow Beck has a similar profile and won at the course easily recently. Taayel is probably facing the toughest task of the three but is open to improvement and holds Valbchek on his last outing. The trio are worth doing in a nice patent.

Glen Moss 7-1 Bet Victor

Afsare 11-4 Bet365

Fledged 4-1 Coral

Willow Beck 2-1 Paddy Power

Taayel 4-1 Paddy Power