Tag: Newmarket betting

Newmarket Friday Preview

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On Friday last week I picked out Lady Cecil’s Squire Osbaldeston at Nottingham but he was withdrawn when the ground became testing. His trainer obviously has a good opinion of him and decided to re-route him to Newmarket this week rather than risk him on a heavy ground and the move can pay off handsomely.

He went into my notebook when he was desperately unlucky at Goodwood in May, getting out all too late and finishing strongly in fourth behind Eshtiaal. There was clearly more to come from this good looking son of Mr Greeley but he did not reappear until September.

Under a confident ride from Tom Queally, he easily saw off Hawker by two and a half lengths at Lingfield and has the potential to be better than a handicapper. If that is the case, he should have little difficulty winning off a mark of 85 at Newmarket and rates the nap at odds of 2-1 with Paddy Power.

I have been singing the praises of young Oisin Murphy for quite a while and he struck again with a big odds treble last weekend. Not surprisingly, he is now in big demand while he has a handy 5lb claim and John Gosden is among those using his services.

I’m sure that Murphy will give Willow Beck a good ride in the 3.05 at an each-way price. The form of this filly is difficult to weigh up because she was bang there with Phaenomena and Astonishing here last month. Astonishing went on to win her next race by a country mile but Phaenomena looked as slow as a boat at Lingfield on Thursday. Even so, Willow Beck is game and consistent and the 5lbs off is a bonus.

Whatever Murphy’s fate on that one, he has sound claims on Ballinderry Boy who goes in search of a hat-trick for his retained stable of Andrew Balding at 3.40. He’s gone up 6lbs for beating Man Of Plenty at Ascot but that creature is not the most reliable and he can confirm the form.

Squire Osbaldeston 2-1 Paddy Power

Willow Beck 7-1 Bet Victor, Coral

Ballinderry 11-4 Bet Victor, William Hill

Newmarket Day 3 Preview

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Ihtimal and Rizeena were both eclipsed by 28-1 shot Chrisellium and Channel 4 viewers were “treated” to repeated showings of Willie Carson doing a celebratory jig. He’s a part owner so he’s entitled to celebrate but it seems a bit strange that he should choose a Clive Brittain-esque routine, especially having just beaten Clive’s top filly? No doubt Channel 4 have their reasons for turning it into the Willie Carson show but it merely served to remind me to watch only the racing and switch off the guff in between.

As for the race? Well, I am disappointed that De Sousa held up Ihtimal in last place considering she was one of the few fillies absolutely guaranteed to get the mile. Rizeena was at least given a chance to win her race but she doesn’t like being in front too long and that was enough for Richard Hughes to seize his chance. I wouldn’t lose faith in either filly for the classics next season.

The Cheveley Park Stakes has lost some of its lustre with Rizeena having been diverted to the mile but it still throws up an interesting clash between Kiyoshi and Vorda. If Rizeena doesn’t like being in front, Kiyoshi is positively quirky! She ran sideways when winning at Royal Ascot and seemed to hang fire as soon as she was kicked ahead by Spencer in the Moyglare. That resulted in a disqualification and the pressure is on the jockey to make amends on Saturday.

Charlie Hills will be hoping to bag his second trial in two days but I think the French challenger may prove too strong. She won her first three races before being pitched in against the colts in the Prix Morny. She ran a cracker, just losing out to the impressive No Nay Never with Rizeena staying on into third. A repeat of that form should be good enough but Kiyoshi is the obvious threat.

I will be watching Berkshire’s return to action with interest in the Royal Lodge although I can’t support him after such a lengthy absence. I also have plenty of respect for Mark Johnston’s Somewhat after his Newbury win and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made his superior fitness count. I shall also bypass the Sun Chariot as it is now a long way back to the Guineas and there’s no telling whether Sky Lantern and Just The Judge are still on song.

Vorda (2.35) 2-1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)

Newmarket Day 2 Preview

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Friday’s card at Newmarket features arguably the most interesting clash of the week with Rizeena and Ihtimal meeting over a mile at 3.15. I am a big fan of both fillies and it is little wonder that they both figure highly in the ante-post market for next season’s 1000 Guineas.

When Rizeena surged through to take the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, most pundits were happy to disregard Clive Brittain’s rhetoric that she could be a Guineas filly as being typical of his optimistic outlook on life. When she was beaten by Lucky Kristale at Newmarket, it did seem that she may be more a speed machine but subsequent runs in France and Ireland have proved otherwise.

Her fast finishing third in France behind No Nay Never offered every encouragement that she would stay beyond six furlongs and she duly landed the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland. I  believe that her rivals played into her hands that day but she was the winner on merit and clearly has superior form to Ihtimal.

The Godolphin filly has improved with every race this season and I was very confident that she would win the May Hill at Doncaster. She was given a good lead by Majeyda before producing an impressive burst of speed to go clear. She had put in a similar display in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket previously, running on powerfully at the finish. She seems a straight forward filly whereas Rizeena might just have a tendency to hang fire when she hits the front.

I was expecting the odds to reflect that the race is a virtual match despite the presence of the unbeaten Sound Reflection and the useful Wonderfully. To my surprise, Ihtimal has been chalked up at 3-1 by Bet365. To my eyes, that is great value. If she is beaten by Rizeena then so be it, but I’d have thought she was a 2-1 shot or shorter.

The card opens with 15-length Lingfield scorer Radiator in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She meets much stiffer opposition here including Lightning Thunder who did us a favour at Doncaster and the French raider Miss France. Andre Fabre doesn’t waste his time sending over moderate horses so it could be an interesting little contest.

Other horses to  note on a top quality card include the smart maiden Yuften who passes up some Group race entries to run in the 3.50 and John Gosden’s Gatewood (4.25). The latter shaped well on his comeback race after a spell in Australia and could still have a future as a Cup horse.

Ihtimal (3.15 Newmarket) 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket Saturday August 17th Preview

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Saturday’s card gets under way with a fascinating nursery where the weights are headed by Charlie Appleby’s Autumn Lily. She won well on her debut at Haydock but then ran disappointingly in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. She was a different proposition last time out when she absolutely bolted up at the same course over this trip.

There is no doubt that she deserves to be carrying top weight and she may prove to be a group class filly. I expect her to win but, if for any reason she doesn’t perform, I’m going to have an each-way saver on Richard Fahey’s Shot In The Sun. She was tucked in behind the leaders at Goodwood in the Nursery won by Art Official and didn’t get a clear run until the winner had gone beyond recall. She’s only small but seems to have the heart of a lion and I’d be disappointed if she’s not in the frame.

The Grey Horse Handicap may be a photographer’s dream but it isn’t usually a great race for punters. However, I was really taken with the easy victory of Majesty at Warwick last time over seven furlongs and I think he could have been let in lightly here. He’s up against a bunch of seasoned handicappers but he looks to have plenty of size and scope. The drop back to six shouldn’t be a problem as he was always to the fore at Warwick.

Hannon and Levey team up again in the third with Ninjago. I was disappointed when this one was beaten at Newbury in May but he’s being pitched in at the deep end since then. Seven furlongs proved too far for him in the Jersey Stakes and he has since run honourable races both here and in the Stewards’ Cup.

The Newmarket handicap won by Heaven’s Guest from Moviesta was one of the hottest three-year-old sprints of the season and there was no disgrace in finishing fourth there. You could have forgiven him for struggling in the Stewards’ Cup but he stuck to his guns well enough to finish fifth. This is no easy task but he could still be on a winning weight at a fair price.

Autumn Lily 7-2 Coral

Shot In The Sun 10-1 William Hill

Majesty 9-2 Coral

Ninjago 11-2 Bet Victor

Newmarket Preview 20th July

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Johnston’s duo

Supporters of Es Que Love must be tearing their hair out after the past fortnight. First of all he looked set to lift the Coral Challenge under a superb front-running ride from Olivier Peslier only to be reeled in by Prince Of Johanne. Last week, dropped back to seven furlongs for the Bunbury Cup, he looked certain to collect until Field Of Dream kicked in the turbo and collared him on the line.

The old warrior is turned out yet again tomorrow in the opener at Newmarket with Ryan Moore in the saddle. To make matters worse, the handicapper has shoved him up 5lbs and he going back up to a mile. Lurking at the foot of the handicap is his stable companion Shebebi, winner of the valuable Silver Bowl at Haydock earlier in the season.

Shebebi looked likely to win in a decent race at Haydock last time when sent on two furlongs from home but was cut down by the useful Ashaadd. He received a bump at the start and possibly did a little too much too soon that day. I think he can take advantage of the huge weight concession he is receiving from his stablemate.

Ribblesdale form

My nap on this card is Sir Michael Stoute’s Waila in the Newsells Park Stud Stakes. She beat Riposte on her second start and was then sent to Royal Ascot for the Ribblesdale Stakes. Kieren Fallon failed to settle her in the early stages and she was seen fly jumping at one point.

Her run reminded me of a similar performance by stable companion Hillstar when he made his seasonal debut at Newbury. He came out and won the King Edward VII Stakes after that so no wonder there were some long faces after he was beaten in a handicap!

The Warwick Oaks form supplies the main opposition but that looked a muddling race to me and, providing Ryan Moore can get Waila settled, the Ribblesdale form looks far superior.

Improving filly

My third selection for Newmarket is Midnight Flower in the 3.40. She is trained by David Simcock and comes here on the back of a shock 25-1 course victory. She won comfortably from Nardin who ran respectably in a competitive fillies race at the July meeting. 100-30 seems a fair price for this improving filly in a similar event tomorrow.

Shebebi 4-1 William Hill
Waila (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Midnight Flower 100-30 BetVictor

Tipsy Tipsters Thursday Horse Racing Tips

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Today sees the start of some rather juicy graded racing at Newmarket. With 2 group 2 races on we are in for a treat of top quality racing (hopefully).

There are 3 horses i like today, these are:

Feel Like Dancing 7/2 Bet365 Newmarket 1:40

John Gosden has won the last 2 runnings of this race and is looking to make it a hat-trick for his yard with Feel Like Dancing. After beating Boite (who re-opposes today) on his debut, he went to take on the big boys in the Chester Cup and ultimately strugged. The step up to 2m last time at Royal Ascot saw him in a much better light, finishing 2nd to Leading Light by just over a length. Today he steps down slightly to 1m 5f but shapes as if he won’t mind that. The danger is definately Dare To Achieve who finished behind Royal Ascot winner Remote two starts back.

Figure Of Speech 9/2 Bet365 Newmarket 2:10

Godolphin are on fire at the moment, literally. I was at Sandown last week when Emirates Flyer was backed in from 12-1 into 9-2 and absolutely hosed up. Yes, i was on him, he looked a picture in the paddock.

Figure Of Speech may of only won a maiden, but he did it in impressive enough fashion by 4 lengths. His maiden was over the course and distance, which is a plus and Barzalona is booked to ride, which is always a positive. Sir John hawkins went off as 6/1 2nd favourite in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, only to be beaten by the unfancied War Command by 7 lengths. That was seen as a miniature fluke by the 3rd string of the Ballydoyle camp, so he could well be a very serious threat to my selection today, so small stakes here.