Tag: Libertarian

Irish Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Epsom Derby victory of Ruler Of The World was overshadowed by the dramatic self-destruction of the short-priced favourite Dawn Approach. An awful lot of rubbish has been written and spoken since including talk of a cunning plan by Aidan O’Brien to beat the Guineas winner by setting a slow pace!

The general consensus seems to be that it was not a great race with Ruler Of The World given the lowest rating for a Derby winner for many a year. Five of the runners have been beaten on their reappearance with Dawn Approach (St James’s Palace Stakes) being the only subsequent winner in the field to date.

The Irish Derby sets up a rematch between the first, second and third. Godolphin have moved in to purchase Libertarian who will be running his last race out the Burke stable before switching to Bin Suroor. They have also declared a pacemaker in the form of Cap O’Rushes in the hope of ensuring a suitably strong test for Libertarian.

Ruler Of The World could be joined by stablemate Festive Cheer but there are doubts over the participation of Battle Of Marengo and Count Limonade. The prospect of a pacemaker holds no fears for Ruler Of The World who settled well at Epsom but was chased up by Ryan Moore who could see that he needed to be nearer the front. He actually felt that he hit the front a bit early and there could easily be more improvement to come.

Galileo Rock, third at Epsom, is also set to line up this weekend but already looks as though the Leger distance would suit him better. He was always handily placed in the Derby but may lack a finishing kick. He is closely matched with Sugar Boy on Sandown form in May and the latter has also changed hands this week. Certainly that Sandown race leads a lot better now than it did at the time but Libertarian has come on in leaps and bounds since then and should have his measure.

John Oxx will be represented by Little White Cloud who has been beaten in the Derrinstown Trial and the Gallinule Stakes. Jim Bolger’s Trading Leather set a good clip in the Irish Guineas but had nothing extra in the closing stages and weakened into fourth behind Magician. He won a listed race over ten furlongs last time out but is not guaranteed to stay this trip.

I can see no reason why Ruler Of The World won’t confirm his supremacy over his Epsom victims and he is a top-priced 6-5 with Sportingbet.

Irish Derby Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World has been given an official rating of just 120, the lowest rating for a Derby winner this century. His figure is just one short of that given to Sir Percy who prevailed in a similarly bunched finish in 2006. Although Ruler Of The World had a length and a half to spare at the line, there were seven horses within four lengths at the end of a hugely controversial race.

For all the nonsense that has been said about Aidan O’Brien’s brilliant tactical move to slow the race down, the fact is that Dawn Approach destroyed his own chances by refusing to settle. I can think of many Guineas winners that did not stay the Derby distance but none that imploded so dramatically as Jim Bolger’s colt. That issue aside, what can we deduce about the future prospects for the first half dozen or so?

Ruler Of The World has been installed 15-8 favourite to follow up in the Irish Derby with runner-up Libertarian at 9-2, Battle Of Marengo 6-1, Galileo Rock and Mars 8-1. The betting suggests that the places should be confirmed at the Curragh. The problem with betting ante-post on the O’Brien horses is that you can never be too sure what is going to run where. Once again he has three of the first five in the market and other options including the Eclipse and the King George.

It was ironic that after such a sedate early pace the first three home were arguably the most stoutly-bred horses in the race. I was not keen on the Derby prospects of Libertarian after York because I felt that he would get too far out of his ground early on. To some extent this was true but he overhauled half a dozen horses in the last furlong and will almost certainly be supplemented for Ireland.

A couple of respected judges put up Galileo Rock as an each-way bet at huge prices last week and just scraped into third after racing prominently. It’s easy to imagine him developing into a leading St Leger contender but I’m not convinced that he has the speed to reverse the placings with the winner. Battle Of Marengo has yet to convince me that he stays a mile and a half and it wouldn’t surprise me if he bypassed the Curragh but Mars ran a hugely promising race.

Richard Hughes was probably hoping that the field would come back to him as they did in the Oaks a day previously but things did not pan out that way. Instead he found himself trying to make ground on horses that were quickening up the hill. He and Ocovango were the worst sufferers in the skirmishing that took place when the pace finally quickened but Mars ran on most encouragingly. He reminds me a little of Rip Van Winkle in that he finished out of the money at Newmarket and Epsom before proving to be top class over a mile to a mile and a quarter.

Because of my reservations about backing O’Brien’s horses ante-post, I am going to have to sit on the fence for the time being. I have a feeling that we may see Mars run in the Eclipse and Ruler Of The World run at the Curragh but I’m not about to risk my cash second-guessing the master of Ballydoyle.