Tag: Kingman

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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The highlight of Wednesday’s racing action is the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

My regular readers will know that I had a 16-1 ante-post interest in Kingman for the 2000 Guineas so it was very frustrating to see him beaten close home by Night Of Thunder. He reversed that form in some style at Royal Ascot after bolting up in the Irish Guineas and is clearly the top miler of his generation.

On Wednesday he is set to meet the four-year-old Toronado, a half-length winner of this race a year ago from Dawn Approach. He flopped when tried over a mile and a quarter but was back to his best when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot last month.

Tactics are going to be vital here with both horses usually held up. There are only three other runners, two trained by Aidan O’Brien so it will be fascinating to see if he has any plans for Darwin and War Command. Outstrip ran much better at Ascot than at Newmarket and he is another that is suited by being dropped in behind. Providing the race does not develop into a crawl, Kingman should come out on top.

The card opens with a quick reappearance for Maid In Rio, one of our Ascot hat-trick on Friday. She was as easy a winner as you are every likely to see and gets in here with just a 3lb penalty. The handicapper would probably like to increase that by another 10 or 11lbs! The only question marks are the quick reappearance and the extra distance. She has another five furlongs to travel here but she won with her head in her chest last week and is impossible to oppose.

The Gordon Stakes is not the race it once was but still provides an interesting St Leger trial. Observational was very gutsy when winning here last time for Roger Charlton but connections would probably have liked to see a little more rain for him. Red Galileo was almost certainly flattered by his fifth in the Derby having been ridden to pass beaten horses.

I’m going to side with the Gosden and Buick team here with Cloudscape. He has disappointed before but finished to some effect at Ascot behind Cannock Chase and the likes of Snow Sky look vulnerable to a turn of foot. It would also make amends for Buick’s awful ride in this race a year ago when he was a fast finishing second.

Maid In Rio 1.55 Goodwood Wednesday

Cloudscape 2.30 Goodwood Wednesday @11-2 Paddy Power

Kingman 3.05 Goodwood Wednesday @4-7

Royal Ascot Tuesday Preview

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Royal Ascot kicks off on Tuesday and it will be interesting to see how it competes with the World Cup in Brazil. It will certainly lose some valuable column inches and I think Channel 4’s viewing figures will be down but none of that concerns the true racing fan.

The highlight of day 1 is undoubtedly the clash between Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kingman and his Newmarket conqueror Night Of Thunder. After Kingman’s effortless Newbury win in the Greenham I fully expected to collect on my 16-1 ante-post tip but 40-1 shot Night Of Thunder came to the bookies rescue.

With the benefit of hindsight, Night Of Thunder ran a perfectly good trial at Newbury but was no match for Kingman. He should not have been 40-1 but I have to favour Kingman to gain his revenge on Tuesday. Much has been made of the draw on Guineas day being a factor but Night Of Thunder did hang badly in the closing stages but still got up to win.

Tactics will play a part but there is only a small field and I’m guessing that Toormore will be allowed to dictate the pace with Kingman and Night Of Thunder held up behind. It should be a great race but Kingman can establish himself as the best miler of his generation.

Last year, Dawn Approach appeared to have done exactly that when holding off Toronado in the same race. Toronado finally got the better of him at Goodwood in the Sussex Stakes before flopping over a mile and a quarter at York. He reappears here and is the class horse in an otherwise modest renewal. He has not raced for 300 days so even money does not offer great value but he should win if sharp enough.

War Command was a brilliant winner of the Coventry Stakes 12 months ago and I doubt very much whether anything will win as easily this year. Adaay looks a nice colt and beat a speedy type in Mind Of Madness at Yarmouth. My only worry is that he may be run off his legs a bit early on and you can get some funny results in big fields here. I’m going to have a saver on Godolphin’s Portamento. He was well beaten on his debut but was slowly away and put up a much better show at Goodwood. He slammed a subsequent winner with ease that day and 16-1 is too big to refuse.

I’m not a great fan of the sprints at this meeting but the King’s Stand looks top class tomorrow. Sole Power, Shea Shea and Pearl Secret are all entitled to respect but Hot Streak won with a little in hand at Haydock and could have the legs of them. Oisin Murphy rode him that day but Jamie Spencer is back on board and just gets the verdict in a very tight race.

Toronado 2.30 Royal Ascot at Evens Paddy Power

Adaay 3.05 Royal Ascot at 6-1 Boylesports

Portamento 3.05 Royal Ascot at 16-1 Totesport

Hot Streak 3.45 Royal Ascot at 9-2 Paddy Power

Kingman 4.25 Royal Ascot at 11-10 Bet Victor

Irish 2000 Guineas Preview

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Having backed Kingman for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket at odds of 16-1 last June, it was frustrating to see the race split into two groups. I remember being at the track when Hawk Wing was beaten in similar circumstances by Rock Of Gibraltar, although it turned out that both were brilliant milers.

Night Of Thunder’s 40-1 win was hard to explain after Kingman had beaten him so convincingly at Newbury in the Greenham. I suppose he just needed the run more than the favourite and improved considerably for the race. The fact that he won despite veering off a true line suggests that he was a worthy winner.

Kingman now goes in search of redemption in the Irish equivalent and is odds-on to succeed. The race is very different to Newmarket’s straight mile and James Doyle should be able to get a breather into his colt. The one slight concern is the going at the Curragh, currently described as yielding. Kingman probably wouldn’t want it any softer as the Curragh mile takes some getting if they go a fast pace.

Shifting Gold made heavy weather of winning the European Free Handicap but ran the race of his life in the Guineas to finish fourth. Connections were clearly elated with that effort and he bids to give Hannon Junior a second classic. He looks the sort of horse to grind out his victories rather than win impressively so I’d expect to see Richard Hughes ride him close to the pace.

Dermot Weld’s Mustajeb seems to be all the rage after an easy win in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Whilst you could not fault the style of his victory, you have to doubt whether beating Brendan Brackan entitles him to be as short at 6-1 against horses with classic form.

War Command was only ninth in the Guineas, sinking our other ante-post wager placed after his demolition job in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Clearly he was a classic case of a good horse that did not really improve and he has been overtaken by others in his generation. The positive vibes from Ballydoyle were all about Australia prior to the Guineas and they proved to be correct.

This does not look like a race to get rich on but Kingman should beat this field and head to the Royal meeting for a possible re-match with Night Of Thunder.

Kingman 8-11 Bet365, William Hill

Newmarket Guineas Preview

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After months of anticipation, Guineas weekend is upon us! I broke with tradition by placing two bets on the 2000 Guineas before June was out last summer and both have made it to the final line up. That is an achievement in itself but I’m very confident that Kingman can win the season’s first classic.

2000 Guineas

Our ante-post book looks remarkably healthy. Kingman was advised in this column at 14-1 after his impressive debut while War Command was tipped at 10-1 after Royal Ascot. The latter has been overshadowed by stable companion Australia in the build-up but his price has contracted significantly in recent days and it would not surprise me to see him prove the pick of the O’Brien runners.

I topped off our portfolio last week by suggesting that Outstrip was over-priced at 56-1 with Betfair. The grey has a great finishing kick as he showed in the Breeders’ Cup and a repeat of that performance would certainly put him in the frame here.

There are plenty of dangers, notably Craven winner Toormore who remains unbeaten. He could only beat what was put in front of him that day and is closely matched with Outstrip on Goodwood form from last season. I’m happy to let our horses run with adding any further investment.

Kingman 14-1*

War Command 10-1*

Outstrip 56-1*

1000 Guineas

A huge field of 19 go to post for the fillies classic on Sunday and our hopes are firmly pinned to the Ihtimal mast. My regular followers will know that she has done us proud in the past and I see no reason to desert her now.

Her victory in the UAE Oaks was very impressive, quickening clear in the style of a smart performer. For some reason she has not captured the imagination of the betting public and is still available at an each-way price. I first tipped her at 16-1 and then followed up at 10-1 last week.

I did consider Rizeena last season but felt that Ihtimal was more likely to truly stay the Newmarket mile. I still cannot see how Rizeena can be less than half of the price of Ihtimal. Miss France was bitterly disappointing first time out and Vorda looks like a sprinter for all the world. Tapestry and Bracelet are more likely dangers but I remain confident in Ihtimal.

Ihtimal at 16-1 and 10-1*

*Ante-post advice

2000 Guineas Ante-Post Update

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The 2000 Guineas picture has been pretty static since Kingman annihilated his field in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. He is a best priced 11-8 at the moment and I cannot see him getting much bigger than that.

I tipped Kingman at 14-1 after his win in a Newmarket maiden back in June last year. I remember questioning my sanity at the time as I had already re-invested some of my Royal Ascot winnings on War Command. I cannot ever remember backing horses so early for the 2000 Guineas.

In the case of War Command, you’d have thought that going on to win a Dewhurst would have ensured his place among the favourites but not a bit of it. Aidan O’Brien’s glowing praise of Australia has left him as the clear stable favourite with War Command eased out to around 16-1. Hopefully he will still take his chance but there has not been much in the way of confidence emanating from Ballydoyle about his chances.

Toormore’s Craven victory was workmanlike rather than spectacular and he has been easy to back at around 7-1 since. You could make a good case for him as an each-way bet at those odds. He may not have been suited by having to make his own pace that day and at least we know that he is fit. However, his run just did not excite onlookers in the way that Kingman did.

There is one strange anomaly in the ante-post betting and that is that Betfair are showing 56-1 about Godolphin’s Outstrip. There appears to be a cool dismissal about the Godolphin horses as I cannot believe that Ihtimal is still such a big price for the Guineas and Oaks after her brilliant Meydan win in the UAE Oaks.

Outstrip was unlucky to be caught by Toormore at Goodwood as he hit the front plenty soon enough. Richard Hughes made the victory look far easier than it actually was and I don’t believe there will ultimately prove to be much between the pair as three-year-olds. Outstrip went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a late swoop and that is the style of racing that suits the grey best. He may prove no match for Kingman but he is no 56-1 chance.

Outstrip at 56-1 Betfair

*Kingman at 14-1

*War Command at 10-1

*Ante-post advice

Greenham Stakes Preview

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If the fillies are serving up a decent appetiser in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, what can you say about the main event? The Greenham Stakes sees the eagerly awaited return of two of the best juveniles in Berkshire and the unbeaten Kingman.

Kingman is currently as short as 5-1 for the 2000 Guineas and the Gosden stable have already hit form with a hat-trick at Nottingham on Monday. I tipped Kingman for the 2000 Guineas in this column at the end of June at 14-1. That was incredibly early in the season by my own standards for a Guineas bet but there was something about his debut victory that made him appear exceptional.

He next appeared at Sandown with a routine victory under James Doyle before a minor injury curtailed his season. He seemed inclined to carry his head a little high at Sandown, although Doyle was giving him an easy time and it is difficult to know how much he had in hand. The injury and the usual pessimistic overtones from Mr Gosden would certainly not have me racing to take the 2-1 on offer for Saturday.

Berkshire is a horse that I like a lot and I advised taking the 25-1 about him for the Epsom Derby recently. I’m less inclined to back him for the Guineas as he seemed to be crying out for a trip on his second start last season. That was over a mile at Newmarket in which he looked in trouble approaching the dip but ran on bravely to beat Somewhat by a neck. The close proximity of Sir Jack Layden in third, beaten just two necks, suggested this was not a great Royal Lodge but Berkshire had been off the track since June.

That was in the Chesham Stakes where be beat Bunker, Ihtimal and Somewhat by two and a half lengths, a length and a half and four lengths. I rate Ihtimal a cracking bet for the 1000 Guineas and Oaks this season while the Hannon team consider Bunker a possible Epsom horse.

It is by no means a two-horse race. Night Of Thunder bolted up at Doncaster in October but looked to me like a speed horse. Astaire won the Gimcrack and the Middle Park Stakes at two but is another who could find himself contesting the top sprints. Lat Hawill won by eight lengths on his debut at Newcastle and could be anything while Golden Town won at York despite hanging badly.

I’m a huge fan of Berkshire but I just feel that Kingman may have his measure over this trip.

Kingman at 2-1 Totesport