The 40-1 shock win of Jwala in the Nunthorpe just about sums up the week so far on the Knavesmire! Moviesta had won the King George at Goodwood with Jwala finishing last but this time it was the other way around. Apparently Jwala had banged her head leaving the stalls last time and was probably suffering from concussion. After three days of York, I know the feeling!
I thought at least Simenon would get a few pounds back in the Lonsdale but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw him take up the running under Murtagh. I’d put the Irishman in the top half dozen riders at present but it hadn’t occurred to me that he’d be doing anything other than holding Simenon up for a late run against a fairly one-paced bunch. Not surprisingly, he found one staying on well enough to struggle past him in the long home straight.
Saturday’s card doesn’t exactly look like an easy way to get back on level terms with the Ebor backed up by an equally open looking Melrose Handicap. Havana Cooler looked like damned hard work at Goodwood when staying on to be third and I wouldn’t even be sure of him confirming the form with Van Percy and Elidor (fourth and fifth).
I think the bit of give in the ground may suit Van Percy more than some of these and the 7lb claimer puts him in on a good weight. He has also got a decent draw whereas a lot of the fancied runners are out wide so 14-1 with Stan James looks a fair each-way bet.
A couple of weeks ago I tipped Sun Central for the Ebor but the change of going and being lumbered with top weight don’t bode well for his chances. A number of leading contenders are absent and Opinion now has an obvious chance under Ryan Moore. He never saw daylight in the slowly run Old Newton Cup and did well to finish as close as he did in fifth.
I may have been tempted to back Genzy who looked desperately unlucky not to catch Bishop Roko on his penultimate start. He was mixing it with some decent stayers at Newbury in the Geoffrey Freer and did well to finish fourth but he is drawn in the car park in stall 22. One who could run well at a huge price is Amanda Perrett’s Blue Surf. He has been fancied a couple of times this season but failed to land a blow and the ease in the ground may see some improvement.
He was actually joint-favourite for a competitive race at Goodwood last time but found himself trapped on the inside when the pace quickened and could only plod on at the one pace. He’s got a bit further to travel here but should be able to lie handy from stall 10 and rates a decent each-way alternative to the favourite.
Van Percy 14-1 Stan James
Opinion 6-1 Paddy Power
Blue Surf 33-1 Ladbrokes
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
