Tag: Ante-post betting

Last Instalment over-priced at 14-1 for Gold Cup

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Leopardstown was the scene of several key Cheltenham trials on Sunday, none more so than the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. The feature race at Cheltenham was beginning to look like a two-horse race between Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti but Ireland could have produced a surprise package.

The favourite was First Lieutenant, second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus Chase and second in the Ryanair last season. Although he was a winner over an extended three miles at Aintree, there has always been a suspicion that he does not truly stay the Gold Cup trip.

Providing a line to the form was the evergreen Tidal Bay who is being aimed at the Grand National this year instead of the Gold Cup or World Hurdle. The joker in the pack was Last Instalment, a highly progressive chaser until meeting with an injury that side-lined him for two seasons. He had made a fine comeback when just outpaced by Texas Jack over two and a half miles at Thurles but was expected to appreciate the step up in trip.

Last Instalment produced some mighty leaps in front and always seemed to be going comfortably whereas First Lieutenant came under pressure surprisingly early. Tidal Bay was his usual quirky self with Ruby Walsh shovelling on the coal one minute and apparently going well the next. First Instalment showed no signs of weakening and extended the winning margin to more than eight lengths at the line.

It is rare for bookmakers to differ markedly in their assessment of such a big trial but Coral reacted by slashing Last Instalment to 6-1 third favourite. Ladbrokes disagree and are holding out for 14-1. That sounds a cracking each-way bet for a horse that could produce an ever better performance next month.

My ante-post bets for the race were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1. The King George winner must have a cracking chance whilst Dynaste’s run that day was too bad to be true. If David Pipe can get him to the race he could still spring a surprise. But 14-1 is simply too big a price to ignore for the leading Irish hope and I can’t see it lasting very long.

Last Instalment (each-way) at 14-1 Ladbrokes

Coral Welsh National Preview

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My two ante-post wagers on the Welsh National are looking good. Merry King (advised at 14-1) and Well Refreshed (advised at 12-1) are both now in single figures and have sneaked in with a feather weight. Tidal Bay’s presence has compressed the weights leaving almost half of the field out of the handicap

Paul Nicholls, fresh from his King George triumph with Silviniaco Conti, has decided to let Tidal Bay take his chance at Chepstow under the welter burden of 11st 12lb. The last horse to successfully carry that weight was Carvill’s Hill back in 1991.

Tidal Bay won the Lexus Chase a year ago but niggling injuries prevented him from running at Cheltenham or Aintree. He won on his return to action over hurdles at Wetherby and was subsequently well beaten in the Betfair Chase.

The closest to him in the handicap is Teaforthree, runner-up in this race 12 months ago and third in the Grand National. He is set to receive just over a stone from the top weight including the 5lb claim of jockey Patrick Corbett.

Trainer Rebecca Curtis has not been able to get a prep run into him this year but has him as fit as he can be first time out and is hoping for a good run. Two horses that have major claims on form are Well Refreshed and Merry King.

Both horses have been laid out for this race and have sneaked in with just a little over 10 stone. Well Refreshed loves the mud as he illustrated when winning the Haydock National Trial last season. He showed his well-being with a fine third at Sandown recently despite a couple of jumping errors.

Merry King was fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup but is another that seems certain to be suited by this stamina test. He represents Trainer Jonjo O’Neill who has won this race with Mini Sensation and Synchronised.

Jim Dreaper won the race with Notre Pere in 2008 and relies on six-year-old Goonyella this year. Travel plans had to be changed due to the winter storms and did not arrive until midnight on Boxing Day. That hardly seems like the ideal build-up to such an exhausting test for a young horse.

Hennessy fourth Highland Lodge is also among the leading fancies in a 20-strong line-up for the race due off at 2.35 and screened live on Channel 4.

Well Refreshed 12-1

Merry King 14-1

Betfred Sprint Cup Preview

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Haydock’s Betfred Sprint Cup on Saturday has attracted a field of 18 with July Cup winner Lethal Force a firm favourite at around 5-2. Clive Cox’s grey emerged as a contender for Champion Sprinter when winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot but it was his performance in the July Cup that put him at the top of the tree.

Settled in front by Adam Kirby, he was allowed to dictate a steady gallop before quickening at the two-furlong marker and readily holding Society Rock and Slade Power by a length and a half. Slade Power went on to win a Group 3 in Ireland before completely missing the break in the Nunthorpe and losing all chance. He was allowed to come home in his own time once it became clear that his chance had gone.

Clive Cox also runs the three-year-old Restless Abandon who ran a fine race at Haydock on his first outing of the season when beaten only a neck and a head by Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit. He next ran in the five-furlong King’s Stand Stakes where he finished a close fifth behind Sole Power without threatening to land a blow. Heeraat was sixth and Swiss Spirit finished eighth.

Gordon Lord Byron drops back from a mile after scraping home in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. He has finished behind Lethal Force at Ascot and Deauville this season. The most recent of those was the Maurice de Gheest where Lethal Force made the running before being overhauled by Moonlight Cloud. Gordon Lord Byron was second to Society Rock in this race 12 months ago but has generally looked more of a seven-furlong horse.

Aidan O’Brien relies on 2000 Guineas flop Cristoforo Colombo. He was beaten by Reckless Abandon in the Middle Park last season and has not raced since finishing over eight lengths adrift of Dawn Approach at Newmarket. Richard Fahey’s Garswood is an interesting contender but his style of racing suggests that a bit of cut will be needed if he is to have a chance over this trip. Ryan Moore had to get to work on him from some way out to get him up on the line in the seven-furlong Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.

Stewards’ Cup winner Rex Imperator was just touched off by Sirius Prospect at York over seven furlongs and takes a big step up from handicap company whilst Hamza has finished runner-up in his last three starts and is held by Heeraat on Newbury form. Mick de Kock relies on Kavanagh who made no show at Newmarket. Viztoria has not been seen since finishing sixth in the Coronation Stakes and is another that would benefit from any rain that falls. Former Stewards’ Cup winners Hoof It and Hawkeyethenoo have not shown a great deal in their recent starts.

Lethal Force should win this if he is in the same form as Ascot or Newmarket. Odds of 5-2 aren’t particularly attractive and there may be better value in the each-way market. Hawkeyethenoo was unlucky in the Duke Of York Stakes and was not far behind Society Rock. Things have not gone his way since but he was not disgraced in the Stewards’ Cup and he is better than a 40-1 shot. Heeraat is also worthy of consideration at 25-1 having finished close up behind Jwala at York.

Hawkeyethenoo 40-1 Paddy Power

Heeraat 25-1 Paddy Power

Moyglare Stud Stakes Preview

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The only race with ante-post prices chalked up for the weekend at the moment is the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. Aidan O’Brien is normally one to keep his cards close to his chest but by supplementing Tapestry he has signposted his leading fancy here.

The daughter of Galileo already has a course and distance victory to her credit having won the Group Two Debutante Stakes earlier this month and it is no surprise that her early quote of 3-1 was quickly snapped up. She is now a top price of 2-1 and challenging the brilliant Albany Stakes winner Kiyoshi for favouritism.

O’Brien has also declared Bluebell, Minorette, Perhaps and Wonderfully among the 13 fillies still in the Group 1 contest. Perhaps set a decent pace in the Debutante but Tapestry overhauled her without coming under too much pressure to win by a length and three-quarters. The winner did not show brilliant acceleration but was well on top at the line and we know that she stays the seven furlongs well.

Charlie Hills has kept Kiyoshi under wraps since her devastating win at Royal Ascot. Much was made of her swerve across the course in the closing stages and there is a slight concern about how she will respond when she comes under serious pressure. What cannot be denied is that she was clearly the best filly that day and it is worth taking a closer look at those that finished behind her.

The runner-up Sandiva won a Group 2 at Deauville on her next start whilst Lucky Kristale (6th) has won the Cherry Hinton and the Lowther Stakes (both also Group 2 races). Princess Noor (9th) came out and won the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot (Group 3). When Kiyoshi won her maiden at Goodwood she beat Ihtimal who has since won the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes.

Connections seem happy that her violent deviation off a true line at Ascot was due to greenness and hitting the front too soon. Jamie Spencer had apparently compared her favourably with Irish Guineas winner Just The Judge prior to her win at the Royal meeting so there will be some long faces if she doesn’t put up a good performance on Sunday.

It is not a two-horse race and I have tons of respect for Clive Brittain’s Rizeena. She won well in the Queen Mary at Ascot and I was disappointed when she found Lucky Kristale too good at Newmarket. She didn’t appear to be at her best that day but ran a lot better last time when third in the Prix Morny behind No Nay Never. She was slowly away but made up plenty of late ground to finish on the heels of the winner. Had this race been over six furlongs, I’d fancy her strongly but going up to seven from five seems a big step.

Jim Bolger has stated that he does not which he will run from Agus Spraoi, Peony Fairy and Prudent Approach whilst Dermot Weld is double-handed with Afternoon Sunlight and Carla Bianca. I’d be very surprised if any of them are in the same class as Tapestry, Kiyoshi and Rizeena.

I think if you’d taken the 3-1 Tapestry you would probably be quite happy with yourself but Kiyoshi has to be the form choice. She is a top price 7-4 and may even go to 2-1 if the gamble on Tapestry is sustained.

Kiyoshi 7-4 Bet365

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Preview

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A couple of weeks ago I selected Dandino at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup and he did his chances no harm when winning the American St Leger. A tilt at the big race is now firmly on the cards for the six-year-old and his trainer Marco Botti knows how to prepare a horse for Flemington. Twelve months ago he saddled 80-1 outsider Jakkalberry to finish third behind Green Moon and the best price available for Dandino is now 25-1.

European horses have been travelling down to Australia with high hopes for many years but a win still eludes the Brits. Ireland and France have enjoyed some success and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is another raider from the Emerald Isle with sound claims. Although beaten by Godolphin’s Ahzeemah in the Lonsdale Stakes at York last week, he was greatly inconvenienced by having to make his own running. For a horse that stays in excess of two miles, he is blessed with a useful turn of foot and many of his previous wins have come through a telling burst of speed.

The post-race coverage was mostly concerned with Godolphin and whether Ahzeemah would be joining impressive Newbury scorer Royal Empire in this year’s assault on Australia’s greatest race. Ahzeemah was soundly beaten by Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and that horse could also be Melbourne-bound. Of the two, I much prefer Brown Panther who was second in the Group 1 St Leger as a three-year-old but is only now fulfilling his potential.

Also behind Brown Panther at Goodwood was Luca Cumani’s Mount Athos, an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year. He reappeared at the Sussex track on Saturday to run second to the in-form Harris Tweed and could be on the way back to his best. Cumani has twice saddled the runner-up at Flemington and felt that Mount Athos was the best horse he had taken over for the race last season. Two severe bumps ruined any chance that he may have had but, as a hold-up horse, he is always going to be reliant on a decent draw and luck in running.

The home team have the first and second favourite in the ante-post market with Puissance De Lune and Fiorente. UK racing fans will know Fiorente from his days with Sir Michael Stoute and it was no surprise that he ran as well as he did on his debut for Gai Waterhouse. He did his prospects no harm when finishing second to All Too Hard over an inadequate trip in April and his home reports are encouraging.

Puissance De Lune has gone from strength to strength and confirmed his well-being with a comeback win at Caulfield earlier this month. Although he has an obvious chance, a top price of 7-1 is not tempting with over 2 months to go to the race. Another former Stoute inmate, Sea Moon, is also high on the betting lists along with It’s A Dundeel but both horses could have other targets along the way.

You cannot rule out Red Cadeaux after his second to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The 2011 runner-up is likely to run off a similar mark of around 115 and he certainly has experience on his side. Whilst it appeared a decent race on paper, I am a little concerned that the entire field finished within 8 lengths of each other.

As much as I like Brown Panther, I am mindful of the poor record of British runners and prefer to side with Irish raider Simenon. He has all of the right attributes to run a big race in Melbourne and 25-1 represents a fair bet.

Dandino 33-1* (16th August)

Simenon 25-1 Bet365

Great St Wilfrid Handicap – Ante Post Preview

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As far as betting races go, they don’t get much tougher than the Great St Wilfrid Handicap. I’ve been dipping in and out of the form book for this race since the start of the week and at times it feels as though I might as well be reading the phone book!

For a start there are 66 entries and multiple entries from many of the top northern stables. With a maximum field of 20, everything from Tax Free (8st 8lb) downwards is in danger of elimination. Given that a lot of these old sprinters race on a weekly basis, it seems safe to assume that only half a dozen or so will drop out so there is little point combing through the form of those from 30-66.

David O’Meara has won this for the last two years with Pepper Lane and has Louis The Pious and Dick Bos lined up this year. Louis The Pious seemed to need every yard of the six furlongs to win at Haydock earlier in the season so I was not surprised that he was run off his feet a bit at Goodwood. He was third last year but never looked like winning whilst Dick Bos could be in the grip of the handicapper.

David Nicholls has made a career out of these type of races and he has three in the top thirty. Just to help matters he has booked Adrian to ride all three (according to the ever-helpful Racing Post anyway). Tax Free was second last year but is now eleven years old so Summerinthecity and Rodrigo de Torres look the pick of them. Summerinthecity finished well ahead in the York race won by Tropics and I can’t see any obvious reason why he won’t run well again here.

A case has been made for several horses that were hampered in that race including the favourite Baccarat but it often pays to stick with the form in the book. Four of Kevin Ryan’s nine (yes, NINE) entries are in the top thirty, notably Zacynthus who has just joined him from Luca Cumani’s stable. This one has got to the age of five without being asked to race at a shorter distance than seven furlongs but that is what he is going to do on Saturday. He doesn’t seem to be a particularly free-going sort and I’m not convinced that he will lay up with these.

Last time out winners Lucky Beggar, Spinatrix and Head Spice don’t look exactly thrown in. Spinatrix just got the better of Pearl Ice and Nameitwhatyoulike and I prefer the last named of the three. He was dropping back to six furlongs there and could do even better if ridden with a bit of restraint. Singeur was sixth here last year and Love Island also has course form but neither seem likely to find the necessary improvement to win this.

Top weight Hoof It needs to show a little bit more to convince us that he retains his ability whilst El Viento and the Harris-trained duo of Prodigality and Secret Witness may be high enough in the handicap. By process of elimination my selections are Summerinthecity and Nameitwhatyoulike. The bookies seem to be strangely in agreement on this race. There is hardly any difference in the prices across the board on almost every runner! Hopefully this isn’t the start of a new trend.

Summerinthecity 16-1 Bet365 et al.
Nameitwhatyoulike 20-1 Bet365 et al.