Tag: Welsh National

Midnight Prayer can take Chepstow marathon

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Coral Welsh Grand National is one of my favourite races of the National Hunt season. The roll of honour includes names like Burrough Hill Lad, Bonanza Boy, Carvill’s Hill, Riverside Boy, Master Oats and Earth Summit.

It is well established as a trial for the Grand National with more recent winners including Bindaree and Silver Birch plus Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronized. There are the occasional shock winners, notably Dream Alliance in 2009 and Mountainous last year.

Mountainous is back again attempting a repeat for Richard Lee but may struggle to confirm the form with runner-up Hawkes Point. The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old ran the race of his life when going under by just a head and will have been sharpened up by his run here at the start of the month. He is racing off just a 2lbs higher mark this time and will have been aimed at this race for some time.

I had Shotgun Paddy in mind for this race after watching him slog his way to victory at Warwick last season. He made a couple of costly errors when runner-up to Midnight Prayer at the Cheltenham festival but it is the increase in the weights that has put me off his chances. He must now carry 11st 12lb which is a daunting prospect for such an inexperienced chaser.

Alan King’s Midnight Prayer had a length and a quarter to spare that day and is as tough as old boots. The Hennessy Gold Cup always looked likely to prove a little too hot for him but he jumped well before fading in the home straight. He is 8lbs better off with Shotgun Paddy and that has to give him a leading chance. He looks great each-way value at around 11-1.

Monbeg Dude won here in 2013 ran an eye-catching race in the Hennessy. He stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth behind Many Clouds. He has a touch of class having won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last December and finished a respectable seventh in the Grand National. The worry for his supporters is the weight as he is up 18lbs in the handicap since his win in this race.

Benvolio gave 3lbs and a two-length beating to Midnight Prayer when the two met at Newbury last year and is 5lbs better off with the King runner. He also holds Gas Line Boy on that form and ran well when fourth behind Court By Surprise at Wincanton in November. He does not have that much chasing experience but makes more appeal than David Pipe’s Amigo who was only seventh here a year ago.

Midnight Prayer @11-1 32Red

Benvolio @14-1 Coral

Each-way ¼ odds 1,2,3,4

Welsh National Ante-Post Update

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There are two things that keep racing fans going during the Christmas break. One is the King George and the other is the Welsh National.

I’ve always been a great fan of the Chepstow race and have backed a few winners over the years. It’s a very demanding race, usually run in bottomless ground and suits dour stayers. A couple of weeks ago I suggested Merry King at 14-1 for the race after he had run a fair fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup.

Jonjo O’Neill keeps his cards close to his chest but he still seems to be heading for Wales and the Hennessy form was given a minor boost when Theatre Guide ran well at Cheltenham. He was second to last year’s winner Monbeg Dude but looked to be going best for most of the race and possibly ran too freely for his own good.

I am now going to back up my investment by taking the 12-1 about Well Refreshed, a confirmed starter for Gary Moore. This horse has a habit of clouting one or two fences but Chepstow is about as forgiving as you can get and he loves the mud.

Last season he improved out of all recognition, winning the Sussex National in a bog at Plumpton by 28 lengths and dishing out another thrashing to his rivals at Haydock. That was in the Grand National Trial where he just about up-rooted the last but was strong enough to stay on his feet.

The Moore stable did us a favour with Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek recently and they must have a great chance of adding another big prize here. Take the 12-1 on offer with Bet365 as I’m sure he will start at less than half of those odds.

The market still contains several horses with multiple entries and anyone who has backed Sydney Paget, Silver By Nature or Nuts N Bolts will be biting their finger nails at the moment. Their respective trainers have hinted at alternative engagements over Christmas and the betting could be in for a shake-up.

I am not convinced by Goonyella’s position at the head of the market whilst Tidal Bay and Teaforthree are likely to be anchored by their big weights. Highland Lodge is a threat on his fine run in the Hennessy but I still fancy Merry King to get the better of him over this longer trip.

Well Refreshed 12-1 Bet365

*Merry King 14-1 Coral

Welsh National Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Hennessy Gold Cup provided us with a 25-1 winner in Triolo D’Alene on Saturday and I believe that it may also have given us a clue to the outcome of the Welsh National.

Trying to second guess the running plans of the leading National Hunt stables is a gamble in itself but we got it right with Nicky Henderson’s runner. Apparently jockey Barry Geraghty had been pleading with the Lambourn trainer to keep Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National but he’s likely to be faced with a steep rise in the weights now. Geraghty tried to convince a group of journalists that a 3-4lb rise would be sufficient for Saturday’s victory but the general consensus is that he will go up by 10lbs.

There is one potential loophole for Henderson and that is the possibility of running Long Run. As a former Gold Cup winner he would automatically get top weight and Triolo D’Alene might get in off around 11 stone. As a previous winner of the Becher Chase, he has got a proper Aintree pedigree so I’m going to invest a little of Saturday’s winnings at 20-1 for Aintree.

Moving on to the prospect of a slog around Chepstow over Christmas and my eye-catcher from Newbury was Merry King. Jonjo O’Neill is a great supporter of the Welsh National and won it with Mini Sensation and Synchronised. In Merry King I believe that he as another ideal candidate.

I first noted him last season when he produced a gutsy display to finish second in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock. He refused to give in and just kept battling away right to the line, losing out on the nod to Cannington Brook. On his seasonal debut he ran on from midfield to finish second to Houblon Des Obeaux with Triolo D’Alene behind in third.

I always wondered if he would quite have the pace for the Hennessy and he was outpaced when they turned for home, plugging on at the one pace to finish fifth. The only horse that put up a more promising run with regards to the Welsh National was Rocky Creek but connections have stated their intention to run him in the Lexus Chase instead.

Another stable with multiple options is the in-form yard of Lucinda Russell. She has Silver By Nature and Nuts N Bolts entered and both ran well at Haydock recently. It appears that she is leaning towards running the former in Ireland but Nuts N Bolts would also be a leading contender here. Sydney Paget is the early favourite after winning easily at Haydock but he has gone up in the weights and is another with alternative engagements.

Grand National – Triolo D’Alene 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Welsh National – Merry King 14-1 Bet365, Coral