Tag: Monbeg Dude

Many Clouds battles to Grand National glory

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The Grand National produced another thrilling finish with Many Clouds holding off Saint Are. Monbeg Dude managed to salvage some each-way money from our ante-post portfolio in third with Alvarado in fourth for a second consecutive year.

The main story was Leighton Aspell winning back-to-back Grand Nationals after Pineau De Re in 2014. The winner carried 11st 9lbs and was making a quick reappearance after finishing a disappointing sixth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Most pundits shared the trainer’s view that perhaps he was past his peak for the season but owner Trevor Hemmings stuck to his guns and was rewarded with a third National triumph.

Alvarado’s effort in finishing fourth under Paul Moloney was maintaining a remarkable record of the Rucker family. They have now finished placed in the last seven Grand Nationals through State Of Play, Cappa Bleu and Alvarado. When you consider how easily things can go wrong, it is quite astonishing that Moloney has managed to weave his way around Aintree seven years in a row.

The fairytale ending for Tony McCoy looked a possibility at one stage but the champion jockey was sending out distress signals as soon as Aspell committed for home. The best news of all was that all horses and jockeys returned safely, although Balthazar King did suffer some painful injuries. I’m afraid that our Irish duo of Cause Of Causes and Spring Heeled never got into the race and did not look like Aintree naturals.

The horse which caught my eye for next year was definitely The Druids Nephew. His fall was desperately unlucky, just failing to get his under-carriage in place and slithering along the deck. That usually happens when horses are travelling so well that they over-jump. It was bad luck for Aidan Coleman who must have been starting to believe he was going to taste National glory having given  up the ride on Mon Mome in 2009.

Of course the weights are key to the National but we’ve seen horses like West Tip and Hedgehunter come back a year older and wiser. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Druids Nephew is trained for the race again in 2016 and 25-1 does not look too bad. If Many Clouds returns he is almost certain to be carrying top weight. His National run suggests that he has a leading chance in next year’s Gold Cup.

The Druids Nephew 2016 Grand National @25-1 Skybet

Grand National Blog – Going favours Spring Heeled

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The Grand National meeting at Aintree gets under way on Thursday and the excitement is already building towards Saturday’s big race.

If you have been following our regular posts, you’ll know that we have been putting together an ante-post portfolio on the race. The ground seems to be drying out with the warm spell over Easter and that is good news for Spring Heeled, tipped here at 33-1 on 4th February. All has gone well with his preparation and Nick Scholfield takes the ride.

Cause Of Causes chased him home at Cheltenham last year and was added to our list at 33-1 after winning at this year’s festival. He has almost halved in price and Paul Carberry is expected to hunt him around on the first circuit and hope to creep into the race. If you are a fan of Tony McCoy, we added Shutthefrontdoor at 20-1 in anticipation of the champion jockey seeking a glorious send-off.

Our only other investment so far was on Monbeg Dude at 33-1 and we were disappointed with him in his latest trial. He would probably prefer softer ground but got round last year in seventh and connections are still to take their chance.

All of the leading bookmakers are now offering non-runner – no bet on the Grand National. There are also some enhanced place terms on offer with BetVictor paying each-way down to sixth place. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and Totesport are sticking rigidly to the first four places so far but this may change with pressure form their rivals.

Royale Knight is currently the last horse guaranteed a run so anything below him in the list is relying on some late withdrawals. These include the David Pipe duo of The Package and Broadway Buffalo. The former is a veteran of past Nationals and won well at Cheltenham while Katie Walsh is desperately hoping that Broadway Buffalo can sneak in. She won the Irish Grand National on Monday but looks like missing out on Saturday’s race.

Whereas Cheltenham brings the best from Ireland and Britain together for the first time, Aintree tends to revolve around the festival form. There are smaller fields and (usually) Cheltenham form stands up pretty well. We have previewed day 1 separately with selections for all seven races.

Ante-post

Spring Heeled @33-1

Cause Of Causes @33-1

Monbeg Dude @33-1

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Grand National – 74 remain after latest declaration stage

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There are 74 horses remaining in the £1million Aintree Grand National on April 11th after thirteen were taken out on Tuesday.

As expected, Carlingford Lough was withdrawn after a disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also out are: Rolling Aces, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Living Next Door, Make A Track, Prince De Beauchene, Cedre Bleu and Buddy Bolero.

The good news for followers of our ante-post advice is that Monbeg Dude has been given the all-clear despite a poor run at Cheltenham. Connections could find nothing wrong with the horse physically and have decided that he resented the tongue-strap which will not be used at Aintree.

Our other selections also remain in contention with Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes all prominent in the betting. We highlighted the chance of Shutthefrontdoor prior to Cheltenham and his price has collapsed from 20-1 to 8-1. Champion jockey Tony McCoy will almost certainly be on board the favourite and has said that victory in the race may well be the perfect time to retire.

Spring Heeled (tipped at 33-1) is now a top priced 20-1 for Jim Culloty who still has top weight Lord Windermere entered in the race. Jockey Davy Russell has joined Barry Geraghty on the side lines through injury while Bryan Cooper is suspended. Russell revealed earlier this week that Culloty had removed him from the ride on Lord Windermere after his poor run in the Gold Cup. He became detached soon after the start and was eventually pulled up. The ground had gone against him on the day but Culloty clearly was not satisfied with Russell’s performance.

Paul Nicholls intends to run all six of his remaining entries headed by Rocky Creek and Unioniste. Rocky Creek looks the obvious pick after finishing fifth last year and putting up a lifetime best to win at Kempton last time out. Unioniste could yet emerge as one of the gambles of the race if the going becomes soft.

Last week we added Cause Of Causes to our portfolio at 33-1 and he is now a top price 20-1. He also races in the JP McManus colours carried by Shutthefrontdoor.

If you have not yet had a bet on the race, look out for non-runner – no bet terms. Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James and Betfair are already offering this provision.

Grand National 2015 ante-post update

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The weights were announced on Tuesday for the Aintree Grand National and there were no real surprises. As expected, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (11st 12lb) is at the top of the handicap alongside recent Irish Hennessy winner Carlingford Lough. Both horses are on target for the festival and I don’t expect either of them to line up at Liverpool.

Many Clouds is next on 11st 9lb and his participation will also depend on what happens at next month’s festival. Paul Nicholls is quite keen on the chances of Unioniste (11st 6lb) but he could end up shouldering top weight and really needs soft ground to show his best.

After Tony McCoy announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season, I highlighted the prospect of Shutthefrontdoor being the gamble of the race. Jonjo O’Neill’s Irish National winner was 20-1 at the time and has now been slashed to half those odds. If you did not get on early, I would not rush out to take the current odds.

Our other ante-post selections were Spring Heeled and Monbeg Dude (both tipped at 33-1). The former is likely to return to action this weekend at either Fairyhouse or Kempton. Connections have been avoiding running him so as to protect his handicap mark and he has been allocated 10st 12lb at Aintree. That looks a perfect racing weight and Jim Culloty will be happy to see him jump round safely in third or fourth this weekend.

I was not at all dismayed to see Monbeg Dude well beaten in the Haydock Grand National Trial on Saturday. He ran in the same race two years ago and came from another county to sneak into the frame. He is 2lbs better off than last year when finishing seventh in the big race and will know more about those big fences this time. Although his best form is on soft, it is not essential and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking any 33-1 that remains about him.

Pineau De Re and Balthazar King are back again after filling the first two places last year. The winner is up 8lbs but you’d have to expect that. I think that everything fell into place for him last season after that eye-catching run over hurdles at the festival. He will need to show something at the meeting again this year to warrant support.

Our Ante-post Portfolio;

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1 William Hill

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Haydock Grand National Trial Preview

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The Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock is the big betting race this weekend. It has not always lived up to its billing with trainers reluctant to give their National horses a hard race in testing ground ahead of the Aintree marathon.

One horse that definitely has Aintree as his main objective is Monbeg Dude, seventh behind Pineau de Re in April. He ran in this race two years ago when coming from a different county to finish third behind Well Refreshed. The going was heavy that day and he carried 10st 12lb. On Saturday he is set to race off 11st 11lb and the conditions may well be similar if the forecast rain arrives.

On the plus side, he has run two excellent National trials this season when fourth in the Hennessy at Newbury and fourth in the Welsh National at Chepstow. The latter race often holds the key here and four of the first five are entered this weekend. Benvolio carried our each-way support and was unlucky to be beaten on the nod by Emperor’s Choice after a real battle over the final few fences.

Glenquest has looked set to spring a 33-1 shock when leading between the last two but the Irish challenger just got weary on the run-in and hung away to his left. He has not raced since but cannot be discounted off only a 4lbs higher mark. The stable landed a nice gamble with Yes Tom at Ayr in midweek and Glenquest won’t mind how deep the ground gets.

Benbens is another who is at his best when the mud is flying and he ran a super race at the last meeting here when just failing to catch Samstown. He looks a hard ride and Ryan Hatch will have to earn his fee. More importantly, Hatch claims 5lbs which means Benbens is 10lbs better off with Samstown for a neck and has an extra half mile to travel. Providing that race did not take too much out of him, he is going to be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Lucinda Russell won this race in consecutive seasons with Silver By Nature and could run Lie Forrit. He was a good hurdler a few years ago and has gradually improved over fences. Rigadin de Beauchene won this last year but has pulled up on all three subsequent starts.

Benbens @10-1 Betfair

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Spring Heeled value at 33-1 for Grand National

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The all-weather racing may help to keep business ticking over in the betting shops but it’s no substitute for action on the turf. The recent cold snap has been eating into the fixture list but it does free up some time to look further ahead.

The entries for the 2015 Grand National were announced today with 98 horses taking the first step towards adding their names to the Aintree Hall of Fame. Pineau De Re already has his name etched into the history books after his great victory last season. Unfortunately I was not among his supporters as I was not entirely convinced that finishing third in a hurdle race at Cheltenham was an ideal prep race.

Dr Richard Newland knew better and he is adopting a similar policy this year. The horse has failed to sparkle in his first two outings but may bid to get on the comeback trail at Devon this weekend. Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor has been among the market leaders since winning the Irish National but is now being challenged for favouritism by Unioniste.

I have a lot of time for the Paul Nicholls-trained grey but I just wonder if he has ruined his handicap mark with that win at Sandown last month. He has gone up 11lbs for that victory to 159 and he could even end up with top weight. Many Clouds (165) has been given an entry but I would imagine he would only run here if he was an early faller in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I fancy Monbeg Dude to run a big race this year after finishing seventh on his first attempt. I regarded him as something of a mud lark after his Welsh National success but he proved he is better than that by winning a decent prize at Cheltenham on good ground. He has run two super trials at Newbury and Chepstow and is unlikely to do too much between now and Aintree.

The other one that catches my eye is the Irish hope Spring Heeled. Apart from being very appropriately named, he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March when holding of Cause Of Causes. He was a fair fifth in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and his only run since was when fourth in the Galway Plate in the summer. Jim Culloty is no mug and he will have been protecting Spring Heeled’s handicap mark before the weights come out. I cannot see his mark going much above 150 which will give him a good racing weight.

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4